August is a time when your mind can wander from the baseball game in front of you to the endless possibilities of the offseason ahead. Those possibilities are even wider this upcoming winter than usual, so for this week’s MLB mailbag, we decided to focus on contracts. I’m here to answer your questions on targets, extensions, and what it will take to get (or get rid of) that one player
(Evan Drellich will handle your labor questions for next week.)
Over the last several years at The Athletic, I’ve done our free-agent contract projections and extension week, and I’ve maintained a spreadsheet with more than 1,000 contracts dating back at least a decade. That’s what I’ve used here to think through possible deals in the future
Some questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity. All stats are updated through Monday
How much would it take for the Halos to extend Zach Neto?
First, the Angels have to decide their timeline for competitiveness and whether Neto fits. If they’re trading away Reid Detmers this winter with two years of team control remaining, I’m going to assume they’ll also listen on Neto and his three years of control
If L.A. (or an acquiring team) wants to extend Neto, the deal that stands out the most is in the division: Seattle’s 2022 extension of J.P. Crawford. Like Neto, Crawford was a SuperTwo shortstop with three years of remaining team control when he signed his extension
Crawford was set to make $4.85 million in his second year (of four) in arbitration. He likely would have made about $21 million over the following two seasons had he stayed in arbitration. Instead, he signed a five-year, $51 million extension that bought out two years of free agency for $13 million per season. In today’s money, that would be closer to $15 million
Neto is starting from a higher point than Crawford, since he’s making $4.15 million in his first year of arb. (Crawford had been at $2.05 million.) And Neto’s somewhat down season this year still looks solid in the counting stats that get you paid in arbitration. I’d project him to make about $32 million over the next three years in arb
Buying out free-agent years at $15 million apiece only gets you to five years and $62 million, or six years and $77 million. That feels awfully low for Neto, who’d be in a much better position coming off his 2024 or 2025 seasons than this 2026. Just reverse the order of his last three seasons, and he’s closer to guys who earned more than $20 million per free-agent season in their extensions. That would mean five years at more than $70 million or six years at close to $90 million
How will both existing contracts and ones signed between now and Dec. 1 be affected by the new CBA? I understand that no one knows what the new deal will include for salary constraints, but GMs must be thinking about how past and future contracts will be impacted
Yep, nobody knows. If a salary cap and floor are instituted, they could be phased in over a few years and could include amnesty provisions that allow teams to get out of one onerous contract that would otherwise count against the cap, etc. One dynamic we haven’t seen in other sports is the institution of a floor that so many teams lag significantly below. You could see some teams well over the cap trading big contracts to teams well below the floor to make it work for both sides
Cam Schlittler extension?
It’s been a really nice season on the field for the Yankees starter. But two things that have happened off the field could really help him in any extension conversations. First, Tarik Skubal won his arbitration case against the Tigers in the winter, smashing the previous record for a pitcher in arb. The prior record for three years of arbitration was Corbin Burnes’ $32.147 million; Skubal got $32 million in 2026 alone to push that mark to $44.8 million
Second, the Cincinnati Reds and Chase Burns agreed on a seven-year, $105 million extension without any club options. That deal ultimately capped real growth in the extension market for starters with one year of service time. Three years ago, the largest deal for pitchers in that group was $32.4 million total (Julio Teheran in 2014). Spencer Strider blew that out of the water in 2023 when he got $75 million, and Hunter Greene and Brayan Bello have signed handsome extensions since. Burns’ deal probably sets the floor for a Schlittler one. While Schlittler wasn’t drafted second overall like Burns, he’s amid an even better season — one that could end with a Cy Young Award.
A third big event for Schlittler could come this offseason: Be on the lookout for what Paul Skenes earns in his first year of arbitration. That will be the mark Schlittler can point to in extension talks
If Schlittler is carrying a Cy Young before hitting arbitration, he’s got a chance to approach Skubal’s record. And so when plotting out extension math, you probably start with at least $40 million in arbitration for him. (For context, I used to start with $30 million for the best pitchers in arb.) You can see how that played out in Burns’ elevated extension
Burns’ deal bought out two free-agent years at roughly $32.5 million apiece. For Schlittler, I’d go a little higher to $35 million each. Put that all together, and you’re talking about seven years and $115 million
Andrew Friedman on how the Tarik Skubal trade came together
Jayson Stark
Do the Tigers lock up Troy Melton and Max Clark like they did with (Kevin) McGonigle? If so, what do the contracts look like? I think a right-handed hitting right fielder is the missing piece of the offense. Who should they target as a free agent or through trade?
With Clark, we’ve started to see several of these extensions begin coalescing around the same general area. It started with Arizona’s extension with Corbin Carroll back in 2023 for eight years and $111 million, and we’ve seen deals for Jackson Merrill (nine years, $135 million), Colt Emerson (eight years, $95 million), Konnor Griffin (nine years, $140 million), JJ Wetherholt (eight years, $112.5 million) and McGonigle (eight years, $150 million). McGonigle’s at the high end, though that covered five years of team control and a deal for Clark would cover six.
At that high end, I look at these deals as anticipating about $50 million in arbitration (or more if the player is slated to be a SuperTwo qualifier) and about $30 million per season in free agency. That’s the math on the Griffin and Carroll extensions, for instance
Given Clark’s status as a third overall pick and a top-10 prospect coming into the season, he should be valued near that. So I’d look around that eight-year, $110 million to $120 million range for him
Melton would be in the same boat as Schlittler, just a less expensive one. His production would be more in line with that of Bello and Greene ahead of their extensions, so something like six years and $50 million could work there
As for options in right field, Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena stand out as the top guys on the market, with Taylor Ward the next tier down
What kind of contract would Jake Bauers be looking at? He’ll hit free agency with only 1 1/2 seasons of good production, but there are underlying changes coinciding with that stretch, and data like xwOBA seems to suggest the breakout is deserved. I find it hard to predict bat-first player contracts in general, let alone when there is a short track record like this
You and me both, Carl. Bauers has gone from a useful bat if deployed properly to one that’s raking against all pitchers. He leads all prospective free agents in wOBA and xWOBA, and his 143 wRC+ entering Tuesday was second, barely behind Ryan Jeffers
It’s funny. When I plugged Bauers into my spreadsheet, the name right above him was that of a 31-year-old who made a swing change and opened up a new direction for his career: Daniel Murphy in 2015. So my advice to Bauers? Homer in six straight playoff games off every Cy Young candidate, and you might get paid OK
No, analysis has come a fair way since Murphy signed that bargain three-year deal with the Nationals ahead of an MVP runner-up in 2016. (And Murphy’s swing change came late in the season, thus his regular-season results back then remained relatively pedestrian.) The Bauers comp that actually makes the most sense came last winter, when Ryan O’Hearn signed his two-year, $29.5 million deal with the Pirates. And good news for Bauers: O’Hearn has made that look like a bargain. The market is paltry for first basemen this winter, so Bauers has a shot at landing that kind of deal, especially if he performs well against quality pitching come October.
The worst contract on the Reds is Ke’Bryan Hayes; does he make sense on any team’s roster? What would an extension for Tyler Stephenson look like? Since the Reds will need a starter to backfill Hunter Greene in 2027, should their free-agent quest start by making a qualifying offer to Brady Singer, their Mr. Reliable?
Hayes has a 57 OPS+ over the last three seasons, and he’s owed $29 million over the next three seasons. I don’t really see a market for that outside of a salary dump or a situation where Cincinnati is taking on a bad contract in return
Stephenson is in the same range as Carson Kelly was two years ago, when Kelly signed with the Cubs for two years and $11.5 million. Stephenson might be able to get $7 million or so if he signed for one year
As for Singer, I don’t love the idea of a team with limited financial resources like the Reds tying up so much of it on a reliable but mediocre starter like Singer. (We saw Cincinnati do this with Nick Martinez in 2025 with questionable results.) The qualifying offer should be for $23 million or so, and I see Singer as more of a $15 million per year pitcher on a one- or two-year deal. The Reds could really benefit from saving that extra $8 million. That’s enough, for instance, to sign Stephenson as well.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. free agency: Is he back in the Bronx on a 1-year prove-it deal?
It sure doesn’t feel like it right now, but Chisholm is still on pace for a three-win season, which is not bad to consider while enduring the worst slump of your career. Trevor Story signed for six years and $140 million off that kind of season
The question for Chisholm will be how teams balance the one-year sample versus the larger one. If he finishes this year around 3.0 WAR, he’ll have 11.5 WAR over the last three years — more than Cody Bellinger had when he signed his $162 million deal with the Yankees last winter and close to the number Corey Seager had when he signed his $325 million contract with the Rangers
However, I’ve generally found that teams heavily weight the season entering free agency. Bellinger was close to a five-win season; Seager was at 3.6 but had been hurt
I would expect teams would be interested in multi-year deals for Chisholm, but probably in the four-year range (and maybe between $20 million and $25 million per year). That means that, yes, a team with the Yankees’ rentire paragraph, I should acknowledge, does require Chisholm to break out of this slump sometime between now and the end of the Yankees’ season.)
If Chisholm wants to bet on himself to reel in a huge deal, well, there’s a blueprint. The last second baseman whose numbers resembled Chisholm’s did take a one-year, prove-it deal. Marcus Semien proved it in Toronto, setting a new record for home runs by a second baseman, and he signed for seven years and $175 million one winter later with Texas
Gabriel Moreno for the Diamondbacks. It is imperative they keep him. He does it all, does it well, and is a favorite of his team and fans. Ridiculous that the D-Backs have not signed him long-term
I’m going to be honest, Nancee. I did not realize quite how good a season Moreno was having for Arizona. He’s on pace for nearly a five-win year
I’ve written before that there’s a pretty set second tier of catchers who have earned right around $23 million per season (when adjusted for inflation). That’s where Russell Martin, Yasmani Grandal (twice) and Brian McCann all ended up in free agency
Moreno’s pace this season should firmly put him in that group. Let’s compare him to Cal Raleigh before the latter’s six-year, $105 million extension
Raleigh’s deal valued three free-agent years at around $25 million per season. I’d peg Moreno just below that at $23 million. Moreno has two years of arbitration left. His salary this season is just $2.55 million in his first year of arb, so estimating $15 million for him over the next two seasons is relatively aggressive. Put those numbers together, and you could see a five-year deal for $84 million or a six-year deal for $107 million as a reasonable extension
What will Freddy Peralta’s market look like if he doesn’t turn things around this year?
What I had assumed would be a blip for Peralta in mid-June has ballooned into by far the worst stretch of his career. His platform season has been so rough that a lot of his closest comps in WAR are guys coming off serious injuries. The best remaining comp is from another right-hander who went from a Cy Young contender to his worst season just before free agency: Zac Gallen last season
Gallen ended up rejecting the qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks before re-signing with Arizona for even less. Because Peralta was traded to the Rays mid-season, he’s ineligible to receive the QO, which should help his market a fair amount: Teams are loath to sacrifice a draft pick for a one- or two-year deal, and if Peralta does rebound for a new team in 2027, that team could then extend the qualifying offer next offseason. (The downside to Peralta being traded is that it looks worse when two organizations struggle to fix what’s wrong.)
And so I’d expect Peralta to end up signing a one-year deal in the range of the qualifying offer (probably about $23 million). Of course, there’s still a reasonable chance Tampa Bay turns him around over the next six weeks, and he should have a real opportunity this postseason to juice that number
What would an extension for Justin Steele look like?
Honestly, this doesn’t make sense for either side to pursue on a long-term basis. Steele hasn’t pitched since 2024, and there’s way too wide a range of outcomes — from a return to form, like a lot of pitchers coming off Tommy John, to a legitimate drop in quality, like with Noah Syndergaard or Walker Buehler this decade — for it to be logical. Maybe the Cubs and Steele want to give him an extra year in 2028 so he can enter free agency off a healthier platform season, but I would be more bullish on that idea if Steele were only coming back next spring, rather than down the stretch of this season. Plus, he’ll be 31 next season; I don’t think pushing free agency any further into the future is beneficial for him.
Given that it’s a near certainty that a lockout will shut down MLB for much of the 2027 season, what are the chances that one or more players who are eligible for free agency decide to take their talents to Nippon Professional Baseball, the Korean Baseball Organization or the Chinese Professional Baseball League (not to mention signing with the Savannah Bananas)?
Well, I doubt we’ll see any Savannah Bananas out of this year’s free-agent group. Jefry Yan is under team control, after all. I haven’t gotten the sense that players are so pessimistic about a 2027 season that we’ll see a real-name player sign internationally
