Another veteran wide receiver is off the board as Stefon Diggs is joining the Washington Commanders. This will be Diggs’ fourth team in four seasons and there was nothing in his play last year to make you think he lost a step. Diggs averaged 9.9 yards per target for the Patriots, his best mark since 2019, and his 2.42 yards per route run ranked seventh amongst receivers who earned at least 50 targets last year. That’s how he got over 1,000 receiving yards despite playing just over 50% of the Patriots offensive snaps. In my first run at projections, I have Diggs at 74 catches for 864 yards and five touchdowns, which makes him WR36 in my projections. He has more upside than that if his snap share goes up significantly and I would be happy to spend a pick in the Round 8 range for him.
Perhaps the biggest winner in this move is Jayden Daniels. He now has a part of number one wide receivers in Terry McLaurin and Diggs as well as good tertiary options in Chigoziem Okonkwo, Antonio Williams, and Rachaad White. Daniels has been an efficient passer early in his career and if his volume goes up in David Blough’s system, he legitimately has QB1 overall upside in Year 3. Remember, from Week 8 through Week 17 in his rookie season Daniels was on pace for 4,000 passing yards, 929 rushing yards, and 38 total touchdowns. Daniels’ early ADP has him at the end of Round 5, and if that doesn’t change, he will be one of my most drafted quarterbacks.Â
Of course, for everyone else this isn’t exactly a positive. I still expect McLaurin to be the WR1 on this team and I still rank him as a top 24 wide receiver. Diggs may cost him a few targets, but Diggs may also save him a few double teams. Efficiency up, volume (maybe) down. Williams and Okonkwo lose some of their sleeper appeal, though I am still drafting Williams in Round 2 of Dynasty rookie drafts. McLaurin turns 31 in September and Diggs turns 33 in November; if Williams is good, they won’t be in his way for long. Okonkwo is a slightly harder case to make; you’re probably going to need a big touchdown season for him to be Fantasy relevant. As far as sleeper tight ends go, I would rather draft Jake Ferguson, Greg Dulcich, and Oronde Gadsden II.
One final thing to consider is that this could affect the running game. Don’t be surprised if Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s efficiency improves on rushing downs. Defenses will have to expect McLaurin and Diggs, and Bill already led the NFL in success rate last year. He’s a great value in Round 10 of drafts right now. On the other hand, if White is confined to a third-down role, this could be a negative for him. Daniels is going to have little reason to check down with a pair of very good wide receivers and his ability as a rusher. Unless White can earn the early-down role, I am not sure he’s going to have much value this year.
