Two Wall Street Analysts Just Set Price Targets on Sandisk $1,430 Apart. One of Them Is Going to Be Very Wrong
Daniel Sparks, The Motley Fool
Sat, July 25, 2026 at 8:07 PM GMT+5:30
5 min read
- SNDK
-10.79% - NVDA
-0.92%
Wall Street can usually agree on a stock to within a few percentage points. On memory maker Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK), it can’t come within $1,430 — at least that is the case for two analysts
This week, Susquehanna trimmed its price target on the stock to $3,050 from a prior $3,250 and kept its positive rating. Wells Fargo went the other way, raising its target to $1,620 from $1,250 — and still declined to recommend buying the shares
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With the stock around $1,600 as of this writing, one firm is saying Sandisk could nearly double within a year. The other is saying today’s price is already just about right. They can’t both be right, and the gap between them maps the entire debate over arguably the hottest stock of the past year
That heat is worth restating. Sandisk’s 52-week range runs from $40.10 to $2,354.39. At its peak, the stock had traded as much as 58 times higher than its low. Nothing about a move like that is normal, and neither is the disagreement it left behind
What the $3,050 side believes
Susquehanna’s case rests on the idea that this memory cycle is different. NAND flash memory (the storage chips Sandisk makes for phones, PCs, and data centers) has historically been a brutal boom-and-bust business
The bulls argue that the AI (artificial intelligence) build-out has changed the demand side of that equation. AI inferencing workloads are consuming more storage, suppliers have stayed disciplined about adding capacity, and on this view, supply stays tight through 2027 while today’s extraordinary pricing holds
Sandisk’s recent results give the bulls plenty to work with. Fiscal third-quarter revenue rose 251% year over year to $5.95 billion, with non-GAAP (adjusted) gross margin reaching 78.4% — figures almost unheard of in the memory industry. The company has also signed five multi-year supply agreements, the first three of which alone carry about $42 billion in minimum contractual revenue, a structure designed to smooth exactly the kind of bust the bears fear. And management guided for $30 to $33 in fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share, on revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion.
Annualize the midpoint of that guidance, and you get about $126 in earnings per share. Against earnings power like that, $3,050 works out to about 24 times earnings. That’s a premium, but not a fantasy, if the pricing holds
