NI economy ‘to outperform the UK average over five years’
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Northern Ireland’s economy will outperform the UK average over the next five years, a new forecast by Ulster University economists suggests
The university’s Economic Policy Centre (EPC) has upgraded Northern Ireland’s growth prospects in light of a resilient jobs market
It now expects the NI economy to grow by 1.6% this year, compared to a 1.3% forecast made at the end of last year
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‘Resilience of the jobs market’
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The centre expects Northern Ireland to grow slightly above the UK average up to the end of the forecast period in 2030
Economic forecasting is highly uncertain at the moment, as the conflict in the Persian Gulf can quickly move energy prices which in turn can dramatically shift expectations for inflation and interest rates
The EPC forecast was completed before the most recent flare up in that conflict which has seen energy prices rise sharply over the last week
The centre takes a relatively optimistic view of Northern Ireland’s prospects because of the resilience of the jobs market
It points to the official workforce jobs measure which in Northern Ireland increased at the fastest annual rate of any UK region between the first quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026
Employment actually fell in nine of the 12 UK regions over this period
“Strong employment growth has been a key driver of economic performance over the past year and our forecasts indicate that this momentum will continue, with workforce jobs expected to exceed one <a href="https://todaytrendnews7.com/repeat-food-contaminator-gave-2-2-million-to-gop-now-thousands-are-sick/” title=”Repeat Food Contaminator Gave $2.2 Million to GOP. Now Thousands Are Sick”>million by 2032,” said EPC assistant economist Todd Gowdy
What is behind the economic growth forecast?
The reason for Northern Ireland’s relatively good jobs performance over the last year is uncertain
Some economists have suggested the relatively large public sector in Northern Ireland acts as a shock absorber, with the public sector slower to cut jobs than the private sector
Others point to potentially positive spillovers from the strongly performing economy in the Republic of Ireland
Unlike the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland has remained part of the EU’s single market for goods after Brexit, however that has not led to major job creation in manufacturing
The EPC forecasts that manufacturing will add 4,000 jobs over 2025-2035, lower than the 11,000 added between 2015–2025
Northern Ireland
Economics
NI economy
