Live: ASX falls as oil prices hit $US100 a barrel for first time since May
By business reporter Lin Lin and business correspondent David Taylor
Topic:Stock Market
Posted Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 7:27am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 7:27am
, updated Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 12:51pm
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 12:51pm
Skip to timeline
The financial markets and a number of commentators are now expecting an August RBA interest rate hike. It follows a surge in the oil prices above $US100 a barrel and persistent inflation pressures
The oil price surge sent Wall Street lower, with renewed doubts about whether massive AI spending would deliver returns adding to the sell-off
Follow the day’s financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog
Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice
Collapse all posts
New: Filters
Choose what information you see below by using filters
Filter Posts
All
25
Key Events
11
Energy
4
Interest Rates
3
War
3
Investment
3
Markets
5
United States
1
Analysis
1
Economy
1
Iran
5
RBA
2
Australians
1
Results
2
Shares
2
Market snapshot
2
Technology
1
Fuel
2
Small Business
1
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 1:05pm
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 1:05pm
Global bond yields rising
By David Taylor
Here’s some interest rate commentary from Interactive Brokers, an online stock broking firm
Interest rates across the maturity structure are jumping to 2026 highs as rising oil prices and heavier AI spending prospects stress the fixed-income complex
The “maturity structure” refers to the “bond curve” or the interest rate outlook from 2 years away to 10 years or even 30 years
Escalating geopolitical tensions spreading West of the Hormuz passage to Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea and the Bab-al Madeb Strait, are sparking fears that a wider-scale war could significantly block energy supplies as two critical waterways used to export crude are being choked off simultaneously
The adverse development is raising inflation expectations and dealing brutal losses to holders of Treasuries and stocks, as volatility levels surge in light of the significant uncertainty regarding accelerating cost forces and the heavy credit demand associated with funding monumental technological ambitions
Widening central bank differentials are strengthening the greenback to its firmest level since July 1, as currency analysts see the US as tighter relative to other markets
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 12:51pm
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 12:51pm
Wine industry responds to tariff hike
By Eliza Berlage
The country’s peak industry body for the wine industry has said new tariffs on Australian exports to the US will add extra pain and uncertainty to an industry already in crisis
The US is one of Australia’s top three international markets for export, valued at about $250 million
Australian Grape and Wine chief executive Lee McLean said it was unlikely wine would be spared from the increased trade impost from 10 to 12.5 per cent
“It is really disappointing, and from our perspective completely unjustified,” he said
Mr McLean said the tariffs would add extra pressure to exporters and have the worst effect on bulk wine sales
“Where we are likely to see the most significant impact is in producers that are exporting in high volumes and playing at perhaps a lower value segment of the U.S market and that is simply because that part of the market is so much more price sensitive.”
Key Event
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 12:41pm
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 12:41pm
Business react to Trump’s tariffs
By David Taylor
Thomas Foods International (TFI) chief sales officer Jonathan Bayes has responded to the latest tariff hike announcement from the Trump Administration
Jonathan Bayes says the news has come as a shock and will have a huge impact on Australian sheep meat exports
“It’s [prior tariffs] had a significant impact on the sheep meat in particular,” he said
“We’ve seen demand soften a little bit.”
Mr Bayes expects the tariff cost will be passed onto American consumers
“In uncertain economic terms in the US people are watching their spend,” he said
“Ultimately, it’s going to have a major impact on the consumers and that it could lead to further softening given the US is such a large partner of our sheep meat trade.”
The TFI says while Australia has other large lamb markets like China or Papua New Guinea, they are not likely to be interested in the cuts that have traditionally gone to the American market
“The big items — your racks and your loins — these high valued items predominantly outside of the US, there’s not a great deal of appetite,” Mr Bayes said
“And domestically here, we’re under a lot of pressure.”
The company said the move was disappointing considering the large investment that has been made into the American market
Key Event
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 12:34pm
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 12:34pm
Business Council responds to US tariff hike
By David Taylor
This note from Business Council of Australia CEO Bran Black just landed on the ABC business team desk:
We are disappointed by the decision of the United States to impose a new 12.5 per cent tariff on Australian goods, up from 10 per cent, penalising Australian businesses for no justifiable reason
The United States Trade Representative’s finding rests on the narrow claim that Australia lacks a US-style ban on importing goods made with forced labour, despite our already strong Modern Slavery Act, and without identifying a single company, enforcement failure, or quantified trade impact
The Business Council supports free and open trade, and we see no basis for these new tariffs
This decision will make it harder for Australian businesses to compete and sell their products into the US market, hurting investment and our jobs
Australia already runs a trade deficit with the United States, and we remain deeply integrated partners. The US is our largest two-way investment partner, with total investment exceeding $2 trillion
We will continue to work with the Australian Government and officials in Washington D.C. to minimise the impact on Australian businesses
Key Event
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 12:20pm
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 12:20pm
The perfect storm that could push the RBA into another rate rise next month — analysis
By Michael Janda
As noted previously on the blog by David Chau, the odds of a Reserve Bank rate increase in August have risen markedly over the past couple of days
Yesterday, it was much stronger than expected jobs numbers, with an additional 76,000 Australians employed over June, that saw rate hike bets increase
This week, five consecutive daily increases in global oil prices have compounded the risk, especially as the Houthis backed up their blockade threat by actually firing on Saudi tankers
That looks set to close off the southern exit from the Red Sea, through which the Saudis have been exporting a large share of the 5 million barrels a day of oil that they’ve piped overland to avoid the closed Strait of Hormuz
If the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have succeeded in making the Bab el-Mandeb Strait commercially impassable for Saudi oil, the only outlet left open is the Suez Canal to the north
But there are severe practical constraints to what can be exported
As fully laden very large crude carriers (VLCCs) cannot transit the Suez Canal, meaning smaller or partially laden vessels must be used, adding to cost and reducing volumes
To get that oil to the big refineries in Asia, those tankers must then sail through the Mediterranean, down the West Coast of Africa and across the Cape of Good Hope before they even get to the Indian Ocean, where they would have been if they could transit Bab el-Mandeb
That’s weeks of extra time at sea, fuel costs, insurance costs and delay
It’s no wonder Brent crude oil prices are back above $US100 a barrel, especially given US president Donald Trump’s threat of retaliation both on the Houthis and Iran directly for any Saudi shipping that is attacked
Throw in a new means for Trump to impose 10-12.5% tariffs on America’s 60 key trading partners, and the clear signal is for further upwards, not downwards, pressure on inflation
That is why the markets are pricing in a 36% chance the RBA will raise rates next month and a virtual certainty of at least one rate rise by year’s end, taking the cash rate to 4.6%
That would be the highest cash rate since October 2011
I had a good chat with Dan Ziffer about how the latest oil price surge and US tariff announcement are likely to shape the global and local economic outlook on a special ABC Business Daily podcast bonus episode today
Key Event
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 12:09pm
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 12:09pm
Bond sell off points to imminent rate hike
By David Taylor
The Australian fixed income has been caught up in a broader bond market sell-off
Yields rise as bonds are sold
In some circumstances, the selling of the bonds indicates the need to raise money and adds to the riskiness of the bond
More broadly, bond prices move inversely to their yield
The yield on an Australian 10-Year bond is up another 5 basis points (0.05%) to 5.06%
The 3-Year bond is also up 0.07% to 4.69%
This implies the bond markets are fully pricing in an August Reserve Bank interest rate hike
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 11:54am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 11:54am
RBA to hike in August: Betashares
By David Taylor
The Bureau of Statistics will publish Australia’s second quarter inflation figures on Wednesday
A hotter-than-expected number will put pressure on the Reserve Bank to hike interest rates in August
That could be an underlying inflation figure of more than 3.8%
Here’s the latest commentary on this from betashares chief economist David Bassanese:
As it stands, the RBA forecast annual trimmed mean inflation to reach 3.8% in the June quarter in the May Statement on Monetary Policy. To be achieved, this would require a 1.0% quarterly gain in trimmed mean inflation, compared with quarterly gains of 0.9% and 0.8% in the December and March quarters respectively
To my mind, a bounce back in underlying inflation to a 1% quarterly pace should be enough to tip the RBA over the edge and raise rates at the August policy meeting. Indeed, the RBA would have no choice but to conclude that underlying inflation pressures just remain too firm and show little sign of meaningful deceleration
The current market expectation (according to Bloomberg) is a 0.9% gain in quarterly trimmed mean inflation – which would leave the RBA’s August decision line ball
My call is that trimmed mean quarterly inflation will hit 1%, reflecting ongoing persistent strength in market service prices – due to firm demand and the passing on of higher labour costs – and ongoing strength in new house prices and residential rents
There will also be an element of pass through of higher energy costs more broadly through an array of CPI items
Both new home prices and rents have significant CPI weights of 7.6% and 6.6% respectively
The lift in the cost of new homes since mid-2025 alone accounts for 60% of the rise in annual trimmed mean inflation from 2.8% in June 2025 to 3.6% in May 2026
Based on my forecasts of a 1% gain in quarterly trimmed mean inflation, my call is that the RBA will now likely raise rates at the August policy meeting, placing further downward pressure on economic growth and established house prices
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 11:43am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 11:43am
Minority of Australians confident about space investments: survey
By David Taylor
Betashares is one of a number of investment platforms that offers exchange traded funds (ETFs) products
It’s released the results from a recent ETFs survey
Key findings include:
While 67% of Australians are excited about the future of space exploration and 49% believe it could become one of Australia’s next major growth industries, only 22% view the sector as a clear long-term investment opportunity
The ASX recently published a note revealing a record increase in the number of news ETFs hitting the ASX boards
ETFs can be marketed as being relatively safe investments, given their inherent asset diversity, but analysts warn not all ETFs are created equal
As with any investment decision, it’s important to first seek professional advice on what it suited to your personal circumstances
Key Event
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 11:25am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 11:25am
RBA is widely expected to lift interest rates again if oil remains above $US100 per barrel
By David Chau
If oil prices continue to surge above $US100 per barrel, or even if they remain at that level for some time, it will be bad news for people paying off a mortgage
Inflation expectations have jumped as a result of Brent crude futuresrising to their highest value since May 26
If oil remains at these levels for a prolonged period, everything from petrol, diesel, fertiliser, shipping, delivery and grocery prices will become even more expensive — as businesses inevitably pass on their higher costs to consumers
Once these ‘second-order’ effects from higher oil prices spread across the economy, the Reserve Bank may have little choice but to lift interest rates in an attempt to bring inflation down by making us feel poorer
Financial markets are now ‘pricing in’ a:
- 38% chance of the RBA lifting rates at its next meeting on 10-11 August, according to Bloomberg data. So on balance, it’s expected to keep rates on hold next month.
- That probability rises to 96% by November, so it’s widely expected there will be another rate hike by the end of this year.
Looking overseas, it’s a similar story for the world’s largest central bank, the US Federal Reserve:
- Earlier this week, the likelihood of the Fed lifting American rates at its late-Julymeeting was 17%. But that has since jumped to36%.
- Likewise, the odds of a Septemberrate hike in the United States have risen from 72% to 100%. So at this stage, markets view this outcome as “guaranteed”, based on the current developments in the US-Iran War.
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 11:12am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 11:12am
Worried about the fuel price near you?
By Emily Stewart
You will have seen our posts about oil climbing up above $US100 a barrel today
If the oil price stays that high, we could end up paying more at the pump
Don’t forget Australia’s fuel excise is also due to end on August 2, which will also raise prices
The ABC has updated its fuel price tracker (link below) if you want to check out the average price in your area
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 11:08am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 11:08am
Market Snapshot
By Lin Lin
- ASX 200: -0.4% at 8,804 points
- Australian dollar: +0.1 at 69.74 US cents
- Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.97%), S&P 500 (-1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-2.15%)
- Europe: FTSE (-0.7%), Stoxx 600 (-1.2%)
- Spot gold: -0.13% to $US4,042/ounce
- Oil (Brent futures): -0.14% to $US100.55/barrel
- Iron ore: +1.1% at $US98.10/tonne
- Bitcoin: -0.13% to $US65,027
Prices current at around 11 am AEST
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 11:05am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 11:05am
Oil and Origin
By David Taylor
Morning All,
David Taylor signing in to take you through the rest of the day in the world of business and finance
I’m going to keep across the oil price and anything new on the Origin Energy cyber hack
DT
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 10:56am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 10:56am
ASX sector breakdown
By Lin Lin
The majority of the market is under pressure this morning with 156 stocks on the ASX declining and 34 stocks higher. 10 remain unchanged
Energy is the standout, up around 1.5%, as oil trades at around $US100 a barrel, boosting the outlook for producers
But higher oil prices are also adding to inflation and interest-rate concerns, weighing on much of the rest of the market
Key Event
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 10:39am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 10:39am
ASX 200 down as oil prices continue to climb higher
By Lin Lin
As we were anticipating, the ASX has fallen in early morning trade. It is down by 0.5% as of 10.30 AEST
As oil prices rise for the fifth consecutive session and top $US100 dollars a barrel, energy stocks such as Karoon, Woodside and Santos have performed the best today, the sector higher overall by 1.5%
Tech stocks though fell by 1.9%, tracking moves by the US overnight. Gold miners and re
Take a look at the top and bottom movers so far this session
Key Event
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 10:24am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 10:24am
Cochlear says it can continue to import into US duty-free
By Lin Lin
Hearing implant maker Cochlear has just put out an announcement regarding today’s US tariffs announcement
The company says it will continue to be able to import its hearing implant systems into the US duty-free
Dig Howitt, CEO and President of Cochlear, said, “We’re pleased that the US Government has recognised the importance of continued access for Americans who rely on the medical technology of cochlear implants to hear clearly, participate fully in life and deliver a substantial social and economic contribution to the US.”
Despite this, the company’s share price is lower this morning
Key Event
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 10:13am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 10:13am
ASX falls 0.67% at the open
By Lin Lin
The Australian share market has begun its day down 0.66%, as higher oil prices amid escalating hostilities between US and Iran trigger a pullback in stocks
The ASX 200 has fallen 0.66% to 8,780 points by about 10:10am AEST
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 9:55am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 9:55am
Oil analyst says crude prices will rise further as we max out the oil supply ‘credit card’
By Lin Lin
Brent crude climbed above US$100 a barrel overnight after Houthi forces attacked two oil tankers in the Red Sea, a route that has become increasingly important for crude shipments avoiding the Strait of Hormuz
President Trump responded by threatening tougher strikes on Iran, telling Axios he was close to authorising a “massive attack” and blaming Tehran for any further action by the Yemen-based group
Saul Kavonic from MST Financial told The Business on Thursday night that this is not a new oil shock, but oil shock “1.5, because this is a continuation of the same conflict that began in March. So we’ve been on a roller coaster since then.”
He said concerns don’t just stem from the renewed conflict activity, but that crude reserves are at a much lower starting point
“We now have over a billion barrels of less oil and fuel stocks, which we’ve used up over the last few months.” He said
The Brent crude oil price peaked above $US120 a barrel at the height of the conflict in April, Saul Kavonic says short of a de-escalation, the price is going one way
“We’re living on the oil market credit card … We’re already at record low stocks… That’s going to max out in the next couple of months. And so I think we’re going to see oil head above $US100 a barrel the next few days.”
Take a watch
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 9:20am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 9:20am
How China won the auto wars with cheap EVs loaded with tech
By Lin Lin
China’s electric vehicle surge is rapidly reshaping Australia’s car market, as cheaper, technology packed models win over buyers and challenge the long dominance of Japanese brands
In the first half of this year, BYD sales jumped 124 per cent, Chery rose 77 per cent and Geely surged 495 per cent. All were off a much smaller base, which exaggerates the percentage gain. But there’s no denying the trend
Meanwhile,every major Japanese car maker except Honda recorded falling sales
The shift is happening alongside a sharp rise in electric vehicles. According to Pitcher Partners’ Steve Bragg, theIran war has helped shift the dial
Chief business correspondent Ian Verrender looks at how decades of investment helped China seize the lead, and why some of the traditional giants of the global car industry are now scrambling to respond
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 9:00am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 9:00am
Wall Street takes a tumble
By Lin Lin
Surging oil prices weighed on stocks, as fresh concerns about AI spending also rattled investors
Alphabetfell 7.1% after lifting its capital spending forecast for the year, while Teslasank 15% after its free cash flow turned negative in the second quarter
Those declines helped drag the Nasdaq down 2.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 507 points, or 1%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.2%
Investors also got a fresh look at another major AI chip giant, with Intelreporting results after the closing bell
The company’s turnaround effort showed further signs of progress, with second-quarter earnings coming in well above market expectations
Intel also issued a stronger-than-expected revenue outlook for the current period, suggesting the boom in data-centre spending is helping drive its recovery. Intel’s shares jumped in after-hours trade
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 8:35am
Fri 24 Jul 2026 at 8:35am
Origin breach could fuel wave of AI-powered scams, cyber experts warn
By Lin Lin
We are continuing to track the latest from the Orgin Energy data breach
Cyber experts this morning are warning personal information stolen in the Origin Energy data breach could be used forhighly targeted scams, with AI making it easier to impersonate victims.
The exposed customer data may include names, dates of birth, phone numbers, addresses and email addresses, plus the last few digits of some credit cards and bank accounts
Origin is still determining how many customers were affected
Experts say scammers can combine that information with social media and previous data breaches to create convincing phishing messages, fake identities and even voice clones
Customers are being urged to watch for unexpected calls and messages, particularly scammers pretending to be Origin, banks or other trusted organisations offering help
Audrey Courty explains the risks
