Who’s going to win the World Series? In 2026, that’s a complicated question
Every time we think we have a handle on this season, the landscape shifts. That was true from the early stages — when the standings bore greater resemblance to 2024 than 2025, a rarity compared with most of baseball history
And it continued to be true when the month leading up to the All-Star break completely flipped who was winning and losing — with some of the best teams from before June (Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees) suddenly falling apart, while previously struggling teams (Miami Marlins, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies) posted the best records in baseball
The question of who is — or is not — a legitimate contender is wide open. Yes, the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers are heavy betting favorites at +180. But beyond the Dodgers, it’s anybody’s guess
To help cut through the fog, we’ll revisit a concept from around this time last year, when we looked at statistical cutoffs that separate real contenders from the rest of the pack. The idea is to find a series of rules to match the patterns of previous champions
That’s still a useful approach — even if we were a bit rigid about requiring every team to check every box. This year, we’ll be more flexible
For each team with at least a 2 percent chance to win the World Series in BetMGM’s futures odds (after converting them to normalized probabilities), we’ll look at 13 major categories to see if they pass or fail various tests. These tests are based on where eventual World Series teams since 2002 (discarding 2020 and weighting more toward champions) have tended to show separation by the All-Star break. We’ll tier the categories by both their importance and how strongly they historically separated World Series teams from everyone else, then assign points and add up who passed the most tests.
Simply put, these factors should help us identify the teams that can win it all
* All data is as of the 2026 All-Star break
Tier 1 test
Overall quality (Runs/game differential): 18 points
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 6.1Average rank for non-WS teams: 16.1 (+10.1 gap)Key cutoff: 90% of World Series teams rank 14th or better at the break
2026 contenders who passed: Dodgers (first), Brewers (second), Braves (third), Yankees (fourth), Cubs (fifth), White Sox (seventh), Rays (eighth), Red Sox (ninth), Mariners (12th)Contenders who failed: Guardians (15th), Phillies (16th), Rangers (19th), Blue Jays (21st)
Because of this year’s topsy-turvy nature, the run-differential ranking contains a fascinating mix. Mostly, it tells the story you’d expect: The Dodgers are No. 1, with the Brewers, Braves, Yankees and Cubs — all contenders — rounding out the top five. But there are also some big names who don’t fare as well, including last year’s AL champion Blue Jays and especially the Phillies, who have the biggest gap in the league between their actual record and the one we’d expect from their negative run differential.
The bad news for the less-impressive teams is that runs per game differential is the single best midseason differentiator of World Series teams; almost all of them ranked within the top 14 at the All-Star break
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Tier 2 tests
Offense (Batting Win Probability Added): 12 points
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 7.1Average rank for non-WS teams: 16.1 (+8.9 gap)Key cutoff: 95% of World Series teams rank 19th or better at the break
Passed: Dodgers (first), Cubs (second), Yankees (third), Brewers (fifth), White Sox (sixth), Braves (seventh), Phillies (ninth), Rays (14th), Rangers (17th), Mariners (19th)Failed: Blue Jays (21st), Guardians (24th), Red Sox (29th)
Outside of the overarching team-quality categories such as run differential and winning percentage, the most significant predictor of Fall Classic qualification at the break is Win Probability Added (WPA) at the plate. That’s a bit counter to the prevailing wisdom, which emphasizes pitching and defense — but it makes sense, as an offensive outage can derail a team (and WPA accounts for both the quality and timeliness of a team’s hitting)
This year, the usual suspects mostly grade highly in batting WPA — even the Phillies, who rank 24th in runs per game, are saved by their league-leading “clutch” figure — but the Blue Jays, Guardians and Red Sox (one of the league’s least-clutch teams) are all below the threshold where 95% of World Series teams sit
Pitching and defense (Pitching WHIP+): 8 points
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 9.7Average rank for non-WS teams: 15.9 (+6.2 gap)Key cutoff: 75% of World Series teams rank 14th or better at the break
Passed: Dodgers (first), Brewers (second), Rays (third), Mariners (fourth), Yankees (fifth), Braves (seventh), Red Sox (eighth), Rangers (10th), Guardians (11th), Cubs (13th)Failed: Blue Jays (15th), Phillies (16th), White Sox (18th)
Among the broad, overall pitching stats, that old standby WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) was a better separator of contenders from pretenders at the break than runs per game allowed, ERA, WPA or WAR — especially when adjusted for park and league. At its core, WHIP measures which staffs avoid traffic on the basepaths, and all but a quarter of historical World Series squads ranked among the top 14 in the first half of the schedule
This year, that cutoff excludes the Blue Jays, Phillies and White Sox, whose staff-wide walk rate allowed is 11% higher than average
Tier 3 tests
Starting pitching (Rotation ERA-): 5 points
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 10.4Average rank for non-WS teams: 15.9 (+5.5 gap)Key cutoff: 55% of World Series teams rank 10th or better at the break
Passed: Dodgers (first), Brewers (second), Rays (third), Yankees (fifth), Red Sox (sixth), Guardians (seventh), Mariners (eighth), Braves (ninth), Phillies (10th)Failed: White Sox (17th), Rangers (18th), Blue Jays (21st), Cubs (23rd)
It might be surprising that a strong rotation isn’t a better signal for future World Series potential, as only a little more than half of them rank top 10 at midseason. Still, it is a red flag to rank in the 20s here; 85 percent of historical World Series squads ranked 19th or better, which you can’t say about the Blue Jays or Cubs’ starters at this point — and the White Sox and Rangers aren’t far from that threshold either
Defense (Fielding Runs): 5 points
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 10.4Average rank for non-WS teams: 15.9 (+5.5 gap)Key cutoff: 65% of World Series teams rank 12th or better at the break
Passed: Cubs (first), Red Sox (third), Dodgers (fifth), Blue Jays (sixth), Braves (eighth), Guardians (ninth), Yankees (12th)Failed: White Sox (13th), Brewers (15th), Rangers (17th), Phillies (19th), Rays (20th), Mariners (30th)
Similarly, a strong defense is just as much of a nice-to-have as a starting rotation, and 80 percent of World Series teams ranked 17th or better in fielding value at the break. That’s not great for the White Sox, Brewers and Rangers, and it’s outright bad news for the Phillies, Rays and especially the Mariners, whose defense grades out as the worst in baseball per FanGraphs. Second baseman Cole Young is their only primary fielder who doesn’t rate as either average or worse by the metrics
Relief pitching (Bullpen “Meltdown” Avoidance): 4 points
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 11.0Average rank for non-WS teams: 15.7 (+4.7 gap)Key cutoff: 85% of World Series teams rank 22nd or better at the break
Passed: Braves (first), Mariners (second), Rays (fourth), Red Sox (fourth), Yankees (sixth), Dodgers (seventh), Rangers (11th), Brewers (13th), Phillies (14th), Cubs (17th), Blue Jays (22nd)Failed: White Sox (24th), Guardians (26th)
Unlike a team’s rotation or defense, relief pitching shows up here as one of those weak-link stats that can break a team’s chances if it gets really bad. That’s especially true of the category’s most predictive metric: avoiding “meltdowns” when a reliever squanders a lot of WPA in an appearance. Almost all World Series squads ranked at least 22nd in fewest meltdowns per game, which you can’t say about the White Sox or Guardians in the first half of 2026
Tier 4 tests
Power hitting (Slugging percentage): 4 points
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 7.9Average rank for non-WS teams: 16.0 (+8.1 gap)Key cutoff: 90% of World Series teams rank 15th or better at the break
Passed: Dodgers (second), Yankees (fourth), White Sox (ninth), Cubs (10th), Braves (12th), Rays (13th)Failed: Rangers (16th), Phillies (17th), Brewers (19th), Red Sox (24th), Blue Jays (25th), Mariners (28th), Guardians (30th)
For all the talk of playing small-ball in the postseason and scratching for every productive out, power-hitting is actually one of the most significant separators for pennant winners. Nine out of every 10 World Series squads rank at least 15th in slugging, which hurts more than half of our contenders. In particular, the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners and Guardians all rank 24th or worse at the break, a weakness that could be exposed in October
Plate discipline (On-base percentage): 3 points
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 8.6Average rank for non-WS teams: 16.0 (+7.4 gap)Key cutoff: 90% of World Series teams rank 18th or better at the break
Passed: Dodgers (first), Brewers (third), Cubs (fourth), Rays (fifth), Rangers (12th), White Sox (13th), Yankees (15th)Failed: Red Sox (19th), Braves (21st), Mariners (22nd), Guardians (23rd), Blue Jays (27th), Phillies (28th)
That said, the ability to beg, borrow and steal your way on base is also a meaningful differentiator. Almost every future World Series team since 2002 was at least top 20 in OBP at the All-Star break, so something might have to give this year with so many of the contenders ranking poorly in this stat
Contact prevention (Opponent batting average): 3 points
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 9.1Average rank for non-WS teams: 15.9 (+6.9 gap)Key cutoff: 90% of World Series teams rank 17th or better at the break
Passed: Dodgers (first), Brewers (second), Yankees (third), Braves (fourth), Rays (sixth), Guardians (eighth), White Sox (ninth), Red Sox (10th), Blue Jays (13th), Mariners (15th), Rangers (16th)Failed: Cubs (19th), Phillies (26th)
The one area where small-ball does seem to factor into differentiating World Series teams is in suppressing contact on the other side of the ball. Almost all World Series teams since 2002 were 17th or better in lowest opponent batting average at midseason — which would make the Cubs and particularly the Phillies outliers if they go on a run. Even Phillies Cy Young contender Cristopher Sánchez is below average here
Pitching dominance (K-BB%): 2 points
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 11.3Average rank for non-WS teams: 15.8 (+4.5 gap)Key cutoff: 95% of World Series teams rank 20th or better at the break
Passed: Phillies (first), Brewers (second), Mariners (third), Dodgers (fourth), Yankees (fifth), Guardians (sixth), Red Sox (seventh), Rangers (eighth), Rays (ninth), Blue Jays (13th), Braves (14th), Cubs (16th), White Sox (17th)Failed: None
This finding is a bit more in line with conventional sabermetrics wisdom, which holds that pitchers who dominate the strike zone have better long-term outcomes than those who rely on stranding runners and asking for slick fielding behind them. We have great news for this year’s crop of contenders: They all pass this test!
Home-run prevention (Pitching HR/9+): 2 points
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 12.0Average rank for non-WS teams: 15.7 (+3.7 gap)Key cutoff: 95% of World Series teams rank 26th or better at the break
Passed: Mariners (first), Brewers (second), Yankees (sixth), Red Sox (sevnth), White Sox (10th), Dodgers (11th), Blue Jays (14th), Braves (17th), Guardians (18th), Phillies (19th), Rangers (22nd), Rays (23rd)Failed: Cubs (29th)
This filter is another one for the “just don’t be absolutely awful” bucket — practically no future World Series staffs ranked outside the top 25 in home run rate allowed per 9 innings. That sounds like a low bar, but the Cubs’ extreme gopher-ball problems (only one of their pitchers with 50+ innings, Ben Brown, has a better-than-average HR rate) could contribute to their demise in October
Clutch performance (Batting “clutch” score): 1 point
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 13.3Average rank for non-WS teams: 15.7 (+2.3 gap)Key cutoff: 70% of World Series teams rank 20th or better at the break
Passed: Phillies (first), White Sox (second), Braves (third), Blue Jays (fifth), Brewers (sixth), Rangers (seventh), Yankees (ninth), Dodgers (15th), Guardians (16th), Cubs (17th), Mariners (18th)Failed: Rays (22nd), Red Sox (27th)
We’ve finally reached the truly marginal categories, which differentiate successful teams merely to a small extent. For instance, FanGraphs’ “clutch” metric — which measures who does better in higher-leverage situations — is dwarfed in importance by overall hitting quality, but somewhere between two-thirds and three-quarters of World Series teams rank top 20 in it, meaning teams with clutch-hitting shortcomings (cough, Rays and Red Sox) are at a slight disadvantage
Speed/baserunning (Speed Score): 1 point
Average weighted rank for WS teams: 13.3Average rank for non-WS teams: 15.6 (+2.3 gap)Key cutoff: 50% of World Series teams rank 12th or better at the break
Passed: Yankees (fourth), Brewers (fifth), Phillies (sixth), Cubs (10th), Rays (11th), Guardians (12th)Failed: Red Sox (13th), Rangers (17th), Braves (20th), White Sox (21st), Mariners (23rd), Dodgers (28th), Blue Jays (30th)
The same magnitude of effect applies to team speed — as measured by Bill James’ Speed Score, which was actually a better differentiator than baserunning runs — except that instead of a weak-link like clutchness, speed is a category that could simply come in handy if you’ve got it. It could prove helpful for speedier teams such as the Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Cubs, Rays and Guardians
Who’s left?
Let’s add up which teams passed or failed our checkpoints, weighting for how significant they were — both in terms of tier and differentiating value:
In the final accounting, seven teams — the Yankees, Dodgers, Braves, Rays, Brewers, Cubs and Mariners — scored at least 80 percent on our checklist, with New York passing every benchmark and the Dodgers doing the same except for Speed Score. In terms of October-tested strengths and weaknesses, that core group has the best historical blueprint for postseason survival
The rest are less assured. The Red Sox, White Sox and Rangers each failed to crack 70 percent success, missing out on some important variables for World Series success
Finally, we have a fascinating trio of teams who failed at least 60 percent of the weighted tests: the Guardians, Phillies and Blue Jays. Given the postseason’s penchant for randomness, it would not be unprecedented for teams with their midseason résumés to go on an October run, particularly since each had more of a claim to World Series potential last year. In a season this unpredictable, history can only narrow the field so much
Still, history says they would need to overcome far more warning signs than any of the other contenders
