2026 MLB playoff predictions: Experts project how standings will look at end of the regular season

The All-Star Break is almost over and the second half of the 2026 MLB season is about to get underway. The trade deadline is around the corner, and then it’s full swing into the playoff race

The season has already given us some surprises, as the red-hot Chicago White Sox look unstoppable and the Tampa Bay Rays are outpacing the New York Yankees in the AL East. The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, have been among the biggest disappointments. And then there are the inevitables, like the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers running away with NL West

There’s still plenty of baseball to be played, but let’s skip ahead a few months and predict the postseason field

American League predictions

Mike Axisa	Kate Feldman	Dayn Perry	Matt Snyder
1.	Rays	Rays	Yankees	Yankees
2.	Yankees	Yankees	Rays	Rays
3.	Red Sox	Blue Jays	Red Sox	Blue Jays
4.	Blue Jays	Red Sox	Blue Jays	Orioles
5.	Orioles	Orioles	Orioles	Red Sox

Mike Axisa: The Yankees have dug themselves too much of a hole during Aaron Judge’s absence to make me think they can catch Tampa, especially since a) they have only four head-to-head games remaining, and b) Tampa needs just one win to clinch the season series and secure the tiebreaker. The Red Sox are starting to get some offense and made up a good amount of ground leading into the All-Star break. I feel way, way better about their chances of climbing the standings than I do the Blue Jays and Orioles.

Kate Feldman: The instinct here is that the second-place finish is more a critique of the Yankees than a compliment to the Rays and I think that’s underscoring just what Junior Caminero and Co. have done this season. They’ve earned that first-place spot and Aaron Judge’s injury doesn’t change that. I know the Red Sox ended the first half on a hot streak but they’ve just looked so bad for so long that I can’t justify putting them ahead of the Blue Jays

Dayn Perry: I think the Yankees will surge once Aaron Judge returns from injury and more broadly catch up their expected level of play based on run differential. Brian Cashman will address his major roster weaknesses at the deadline. 

Matt Snyder: The Yankees aren’t nearly as bad as they’ve been playing the last several weeks and they’ll right the ship. I also think the Rays are far too top-heavy — as much as I love their stars — to keep playing as well as they have. At the bottom, I think the Jays will wake up, relatively speaking, while the Red Sox’s winning streak was fool’s gold

Mike Axisa	Kate Feldman	Dayn Perry	Matt Snyder
1.	Tigers	White Sox	White Sox	Tigers
2.	Guardians	Tigers	Tigers	Guardians
3.	White Sox	Guardians	Guardians	White Sox
4.	Twins	Twins	Twins	Twins
5.	Royals	Royals	Royals	Royals

Mike Axisa: This is what the Tigers do, right? They go on these ridiculous second-half surges (a good surge in 2024 and a bad surge in 2025), which makes them due for a good surge this year. They’ve been great since the calendar flipped to June and the offense has come to life. The White Sox are a great story and a fun team. I worry they don’t have enough pitching to get to the finish line though

Kate Feldman: I’ll believe the Tigers trade Tarik Skubal when he’s on the mound in someone else’s uniform, but I still think they’re more likely to do so than not, and without him, they just don’t have enough to hang on, no matter how good Kevin McGonigle is. The White Sox have been the best surprise of the summer and with Munetaka Murakami back, they might just be able to pull this off

Dayn Perry: The White Sox, in my estimation, have the most talented roster in the division, and the return of Munetaka Murakami from the IL will give them a needed dose of power to start the second half. The Guardians are too reliant on rotation stability, and the Tigers will harm their chances when they trade ace Tarik Skubal leading up to the deadline. 

Matt Snyder: I’m holding out hope that I’m wrong about the White Sox and they take this division because they’re one of the best stories in baseball. Plus, the Tigers hanging around means no Tarik Skubal trade and that’s not quite as fun. Still, I think the Tigers are gonna stay hot and win this thing with something terrible like 84 wins. Never count out the Guardians, however. 

Mike Axisa	Kate Feldman	Dayn Perry	Matt Snyder
1.	Mariners	Mariners	Mariners	Mariners
2.	Astros	Rangers	Rangers	Astros
3.	Rangers	Astros	Astros	Rangers
4.	Athletics	Athletics	Athletics	Athletics
5.	Angels	Angels	Angels	Angels

Mike Axisa: There’s a lot of competition, but the Mariners are leading the “most disappointing team in the AL” race at the All-Star break. I still love the talent on paper, though, and have to think they’ll get their act together at some point. The Astros just don’t have enough pitching for me to think they’re a real contender for the division title. Ditto the Rangers, who have more needs than a serious contender should have leading up to the trade deadline

Kate Feldman: The top three in this division could finish in any order and I wouldn’t be particularly surprised. That’s an insult to all of them

Dayn Perry: The Mariners, at an underlying level, are the best team in a terrible division. Yes, that is damning with faint praise. They’ll find something closer to their expected level in the second half, and that’ll be enough to win this garbage derby. 

Matt Snyder: The Mariners have the most talent and haven’t been thrown into a deep hole with their disappointing first half. They’ll emerge here once everything comes together. 

National League predictions

Mike Axisa	Kate Feldman	Dayn Perry	Matt Snyder
1.	Phillies	Phillies	Phillies	Braves
2.	Braves	Braves	Braves	Phillies
3.	Marlins	Nationals	Marlins	Marlins
4.	Nationals	Marlins	Nationals	Nationals
5.	Mets	Mets	Mets	Mets

Mike Axisa: I have real concerns about Atlanta’s depth. Some of those early season performances have begun to fade (Bryce Elder, Dominic Smith, etc.) and they’re trending down as a result. The Phillies have depth issues as well, but also more star power and durability. I think they wind up winning the division and Atlanta struggles to even stay in the wild-card race. Like the White Sox, I worry the Marlins don’t have enough pitching to get to the finish line, but they sure are playing well, aren’t they?

Kate Feldman: I feel a little bad for Rob Thomson, whose firing coincided with the Phillies turnaround but almost certainly had very little to actually do with it. That said, this is the version of the Phillies that I think we all expected in the offseason, if not better. The Braves got great production from unlikely places to start the season but it sure seems like they burned too bright too quickly

Dayn Perry: Things are already trending in this direction, and the Phillies will make a bigger deadline splash than the Braves will. That Atlanta rotation will be their undoing

Matt Snyder: I’m not confident in this pick. The Phillies could well win this thing despite that atrocious start, but I’ll say the Braves fend them and the Marlins off in the end. 

Mike Axisa	Kate Feldman	Dayn Perry	Matt Snyder
1.	Brewers	Brewers	Brewers	Brewers
2.	Cubs	Cubs	Cubs	Cubs
3.	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	Pirates
4.	Pirates	Pirates	Pirates	Cardinals
5.	Reds	Reds	Reds	Reds

Mike Axisa: Remember when all five NL Central teams had winning records? That feels like a lifetime ago. The Brewers are again the class of the NL Central, and the Cubs, despite all their pitching injuries, are the second-best team in the division to me. He won’t win the award, but I think Craig Counsell deserves Manager of the Year support for keeping his team afloat amid all the injuries. I’m curious to see what the Cardinals do at the deadline. Add and chase a postseason spot? Or stick to the long-term plan and move players like Lars Nootbaar?

Kate Feldman: One of the most interesting stories of the trade deadline to me is whether Cardinals boss Chaim Bloom sticks with his plan or takes advantage of their surprising first-half success. I’m inclined to say it’s the former, which would mean St. Louis gets a little bit worse now in order to get much better later. That’s probably what’s right for the organization in the long term, even if it is way less fun

Dayn Perry: I do have concerns about the Brewers’ rotation depth and current hints of attrition, but their lead is a substantial one after almost 100 games. They’ll fend off the Cubs in a close race. 

Matt Snyder: I still think the Cubs have a chance to win this thing if there’s any semblance of health for the pitching staff in the second half, but I’ve long since learned my lesson in picking against the Brewers at this point. I’m done picking against them and being wrong. 

Mike Axisa	Kate Feldman	Dayn Perry	Matt Snyder
1.	Dodgers	Dodgers	Dodgers	Dodgers
2.	Diamondbacks	Diamondbacks	Diamondbacks	Diamondbacks
3.	Padres	Padres	Padres	Padres
4.	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants
5.	Rockies	Rockies	Rockies	Rockies

Mike Axisa: The Dodgers are the best team in the league and the Padres, after walking a tightrope all season with their lack of offense and sketchy pitching, are crashing hard. I think they’re more likely to sell at the deadline than reach the postseason. Sell as much as can be considered selling for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, anyway. Arizona’s stars are performing and San Diego’s are not. The D-backs are the division runner-up almost by default. 

Kate Feldman: The Padres spent eight days in first place in the middle of May. Feels like a lifetime ago

Dayn Perry: The Dodgers will win the division by almost 20 games thanks to their superior roster depth and top-line excellence. They’ll be the only team in the division with a winning record. 

Matt Snyder: Nothing to see here at the top, but the juicy part is watching the Padres. They are not a good team right now and haven’t been since about mid-April. Will A.J. Preller sell what he can (which isn’t much, frankly)? 

American League pennant winner

National League pennant winner

World Series winner

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