We are roughly six weeks away from the end of the 2026 MLB regular season and the wild-card races, especially in the American League, are wilder than we’ve ever seen before. In the American League, six teams are within 2.5 games of the third wild-card berth, while in the National League there are four teams within 5.5 games of the third wild-card
We may not have a clear picture as to who will be in the playoffs until the final innings of the season. So what will separate the playoff teams from those that just miss out? As we head down the stretch, let’s take a look at players who could be X-factors for all 16 teams still in the hunt for October wild-card baseball (note: the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers are separated by just two games in the AL West, so we will include both teams in this story since whoever loses out in the division race will be a factor in the wild-card race).
American League
New York Yankees — Aaron Judge, RF
When Judge is in the Yankees lineup, we all rise as we witness one of the greatest players and home run hitters of this era. When he’s not in the lineup, we all sit and watch the Yankees’ offense rank among the worst in baseball. Judge needs to get healthy by September and get back to form for New York to be a World Series threat
The leadoff spot in the Red Sox’s batting order has been a black hole since Roman Anthony landed on the injured list. (Eric Canha / Imagn Images)
Boston Red Sox — Roman Anthony, LF
Anthony was supposed to be the Red Sox’s everyday left fielder and an impact bat. Instead, he’s played just 30 games and has had only 130 plate appearances due to a partial tear of a tendon connected to his right ring finger. He started his injury rehab assignment on Tuesday and may be reinstated from the IL as early as next week
The Red Sox are hitting better since their season-turning winning streak, but they are still a pitching-first team. If he can get back to playing at his accustomed level, Anthony could be a catalyst at the top of a Red Sox lineup that has the lowest OPS from the leadoff spot of any team this season
Minnesota Twins — Royce Lewis, 3B
The highly touted Lewis has never lived up to his high potential because of a litany of injuries. However, he’s finally healthy and he needs to show that he can be a difference-making player in a playoff race. He’s still only 27 and has shown resilience this season, bouncing back from an early-season slump and demotion to Triple A to put up his best season in terms of bWAR since 2023. A strong finish would do wonders for his career outlook and give the Twins a huge boost in the wild-card race.
Houston Astros — Carlos Correa, 3B
The Astros are pleased with the progress Correa is making in his rehabilitation from the complete tear of his peroneus brevis tendon in his left ankle that he suffered during batting practice in early May. They believe he could be back by mid-September, which could be a lightning bolt for the team, clubhouse and fan base. His elite leadership has always been a difference-maker, and he could be a real X-factor both at the end of the regular season and the postseason.
Texas Rangers — Corey Seager, SS
The Rangers go when Seager goes. There is a reason why he’s won two World Series MVPs. He’s a big-game, big-moment player and Texas will need him to carry this team offensively the rest of the way. He’s had an injury-filled season, which has limited him to just 67 games. When Seager’s been on the field, he’s underperformed, as he’s in the middle of one of the worst seasons of his career, batting just .213 with 12 homers and 30 RBIs. The Rangers are paying him $31.5 million per year through 2031, and for that type of salary, they need him to play like the five-time All-Star he is. No one can impact their roster more than him down the stretch.
The Blue Jays need Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to get healthy and get back to swinging the bat like he did last season. (Mark Blinch / Getty Images)
Toronto Blue Jays — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
Guerrero is on the 7-day concussion IL after a collision at third base in a game last week. When he returns, the Blue Jays need him to put his subpar season behind him and start raking down the stretch. Guerrero is hitting just .263 with seven homers, none of which have come at home. Last year, Guerrero hit 23 homers and was worth 4.6 bWAR. So far this season, he’s accumulated 0.9 bWAR. If the Jays are getting back to the playoffs, Guerrero has to lead them with his bat
Cleveland Guardians — Angel Genao, INF and José Ramírez, 3B
It’s hard to assign the Guardians one X-factor, so I’ll use the rookie Genao and the veteran Ramírez, both of whom could heavily influence the fate of the Guardians’ season for very different reasons
Cleveland just promoted Genao, their top prospect, with the hope that he can provide a real spark at the plate for a team that has been challenged offensively all season. He’s off to a solid start while also showing his versatility around the infield
Of course, no one is more important on the Guardians’ roster than Ramírez, who returned from a broken hamate bone on an aggressive timeframe. He wasn’t 100 percent when he returned but is now finally getting closer to being fully healthy. Hamate injuries can linger, but if he can be anywhere close to the typical Ramírez, he can carry this team on his back as he has so many times already in his career
Baltimore Orioles — Ryan Helsley, RHP and Félix Bautista, RHP
The Orioles bullpen has struggled all season, ranking in the bottom third of AL teams in ERA, but help is on the way as both Helsley and Bautista could return to the active roster shortly. Helsley has been on the IL with right elbow inflammation and Bautista is recovering from right labrum and rotator cuff surgery. Helsley is expected back in early September and Bautista is on track to begin a minor-league rehab assignment soon. In a wild-card race that could turn on a single pitch, getting back two late-inning stalwarts could be huge for Baltimore.
Detroit Tigers — Jackson Jobe, RHP
The Tigers traded their top two starting pitchers at the trade deadline (Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize) and are now turning to Jobe, who just completed his Tommy John recovery, to help fill the void in their rotation. Jobe, the third pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, has above-average stuff and had shown flashes of excellence in the Tigers rotation before injuring his UCL last year. They need him to take another step forward and provide quality innings. If they make the postseason, he’ll be a candidate to make a playoff start.
Seattle Mariners — Julio Rodríguez, CF and Cal Raleigh, C
The Mariners have been the most disappointing team in the AL all season, as they just have never gotten their offense going. When assessing their struggles, you can point to their two superstars, Rodríguez and Raleigh, who haven’t met preseason expectations
Rodríguez has been streaky most of his career and Seattle will need him to get on one of his heaters. Raleigh, who led the AL with 60 homers and 125 RBIs last year, is batting only .156 with a .296 SLG. He hasn’t had his swing working all season but there’s still time for a strong finish. If both get hot, not only will Seattle make the playoffs, but they’ll be a real World Series threat
National League
Chicago Cubs — Ben Brown, RHP
Brown is currently on the injured list as he recovers from a stress reaction in his neck that he incurred in late June. The good news is he’s already throwing bullpen sessions with hope that he can return in early September. Brown was having a breakout season before the injury, posting an impressive 1.85 ERA in 68 innings. The Cubs have struggled with injuries to their pitching staff all season and Brown’s return could provide some real stabilization for Chicago
Philadelphia Phillies — Aaron Nola, RHP and Andrew Painter, RHP
If the Phillies are going to hold on to a wild-card berth, they’re going to have to win more games started by Nola and Painter. The Phillies are just 3-7 in Nola’s last 10 starts and are 3-13 in Painter’s last 16 starts. If they can just win half the games that that duo starts, there is no doubt the Phillies can punch their ticket to the playoffs
Even if they barely squeak into the playoffs, the Phillies will be in much better position to succeed as a postseason team than they have been in the regular season because they won’t need more than four starters in any series and they have Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo for three of them, which gives them a legitimate shot to win any postseason series
San Diego Padres — Joe Musgrove, RHP
Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October 2024 and hasn’t pitched in a major league game since. The good news is he’s on his way back, as he just completed his third rehab start, throwing 70 pitches. His velocity was an impressive 95-97 mph and he held the velo throughout the outing. He is expected to rejoin the Padres shortly and adding him to their rebuilt rotation, which includes deadline acquisitions Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, gives the Padres a big upgrade as they make a final run at the postseason.
Jordan Lawlar’s power, speed and versatility could help fill a lot of holes for the Diamondbacks. (Katie Stratman / Imagn Images)
Arizona Diamondbacks — Jordan Lawlar, CF/INF
The Diamondbacks were hit hard this week when Nolan Arenado suffered a left intercostal injury and Ketel Marte joined the restricted list after failing to show up to a game at Fenway Park on Monday. Those were two huge blows to their lineup. However, Lawlar was reinstated from the injured list on Monday after missing two months with a severely strained right hamstring. He homered in three straight games on his rehab assignment and has always had the potential to develop into an impact player. Lawlar’s power, athleticism and versatility could help the Diamondbacks cover any lost time from Arenado and Marte.
St. Louis Cardinals — Joshua Báez, LF
Báez had the best debut in MLB history on Saturday when he hit a home run on the first pitch he saw and followed that up with two more homers in his next two at-bats. The exciting part was he hit one off a fastball, one off a slider and one off a change-up. To make it even better, he hit one to left field, one to center field and one to right field, too. He reminds me of a cross between Juan Gonzalez and Adolis García
Báez had a tremendous year in the minors and was leading all of Triple A in homers (34) at the time of his debut. If his power plays the rest of the season, he could be an offensive difference-maker in the middle of the Cardinals lineup when they need it most
Miami Marlins — Eury Pérez, RHP
Pérez has been solid all season with a 3.23 ERA in 122 2/3 innings (22 starts), but he’s recently been on a heater, allowing just five hits in 13 shutout innings over his last two starts. If he can continue to mix his secondary pitches as he did in those outings, he gives Miami an intimidating top-three in their rotation alongside a rejuvenated Sandy Alcantara and breakout right-hander Max Meyer
Pittsburgh Pirates — Paul Skenes, RHP
In 2024, when he was a rookie, Skenes burst onto the scene by posting a 1.96 ERA over 23 starts, making his first All-Star team and finishing third in the Cy Young Award voting. He proved last year it wasn’t a fluke, leading the league with a 1.97 ERA and winning the Cy Young. However, this year has been a different story, as he’s looked more human. The velocity is down on his four-seamer, his arm angle is raised, his splinker has lost vertical drop and the shapes and sizes of his pitches are different. He’s even lost some deception in his delivery, and physically it appears he has gained weight, as well.
The good news is he says he’s healthy and the downturn seems to be more about mechanics than anything else. There is no reason to think he can’t make adjustments and be just as dominant down the stretch as he was the last two years. The Pirates moved his start this week back two days to give him a physical and mental break, which was a good idea, but unfortunately it didn’t lead to better results as he lasted just 4 1/3 innings against the Tigers on Wednesday, although his velocity was up a bit, averaging 97 mph. He’s the most important player on the Pirates. He needs to be an ace again if they want to stay in the wild-card race and sneak into the playoffs.
