Why Aug. 4 Could Be a Big Day for the Stock Market
Brett Schafer, The Motley Fool
Sun, August 2, 2026 at 4:27 AM GMT+5:30
4 min read
- SPCX
-3.41% - NVDA
+2.93%
Next Tuesday, Aug. 4, is going to be a big day in the stock market. The IPO stock Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) will report its first earnings as a public company. Investors are expecting massive growth and guidance from the Elon Musk enterprise, which was the largest IPO in history earlier this year
There is also the flood of unlocked insider shares about to hit the market, which could cause even more volatility for shareholders. Here’s the skinny on the upcoming earnings report, the post-IPO dynamics, and whether SpaceX stock could be a buy for long-term investors today
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SpaceX’s massive expectations
When SpaceX reports earnings, investors will be looking at the continued progress of its space and artificial intelligence (AI) endeavors. Importantly, investors care about the growth of the Starlink satellite internet business, which is supposed to be the major cash cow in the next few years. In 2025, this segment grew revenue 50% year over year with impressive profit margins
There are also expectations of accelerated growth from the AI infrastructure business, which generated only $3.2 billion in revenue last year, including advertising sales from X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. With major deals signed with the likes of Anthropic and Alphabet to sell AI compute at its data centers, SpaceX should begin to see growth accelerate this quarter, with expectations for even greater AI gains in the years ahead
All told, investors are expecting second-quarter revenues of $6.9 billion, representing 68% year-over-year growth. However, for Wall Street analysts, this is where the growth party just gets started. Revenue growth across the entire business is expected to be around 100% for all of 2026 and 2027, leading 2027 revenues to balloon to $80 billion, up from $18.7 billion in 2025
A lockup period and short-term volatility
Along with this earnings report, investors should be mindful of the upcoming end of the SpaceX IPO lockup period. A large chunk of shares is set to be unlocked on Aug. 6, two days after the report. These are insiders, not Elon Musk, who have held their shares privately for many years and are now collectively worth hundreds of billions of dollars
What is likely to happen in the months ahead is a flood of sell orders from these insiders, who are generally professional investors looking to send gains back to their partners. For a stock with a market cap of $1.5 trillion, this stream of sell orders could push the share price down. This is what typically happens after an IPO, and it’s why the average IPO stock underperforms the market in the year following its debut
