Underlying stats say this Pirates’ righty is about to explode

Underlying stats say this Pirates’ righty is about to explodeoriginally appeared onThe Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as aPreferred

During the 2020 MLB Draft, the <a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/pittsburgh-pirates” rel=”nofollow noopener” target=”_blank”>Pittsburgh Pirates selected RHP Jared Jones in the second round. It wouldn’t take him long to make it through the minors, as he was on the Pirates’ Opening Day roster during the 2024 season. 

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He pitched well, but did struggle toward the end of the year after experiencing a lat strain. The following year, Jones wouldn’t take the mound. He experienced some elbow fatigue that would eventually lead to UCL surgery that would cost him his entire season. 

He had to miss the start of the 2026 season, but did make his season debut on May 29. He has done well this season, compiling a 2-1 record with a 4.05 ERA on 40 innings of work, but is he one to watch during the second half?

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Underlying stats say this Pirates’ righty is about to explode

Jones’ name gets overshadowed by the likes of guys like Paul Skenes and Bubba Chandler. But he’s someone that Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly is high on. 

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He is looking at Jones as a potential breakout player during the second half. 

“Another guy likely to get improved results for the Buccos is righty Jared Jones, who has pitched to a 4.05 ERA across his first nine starts of 2026… So why are we bullish on what’s to come for Jones? Not only did he have some impressive flashes across 22 starts during his rookie season of 2024, but both his 3.30 expected ERA and 3.23 FIP suggest he’s been better so far in 2026 than his traditional back-of-the-baseball-card stats would lead you to believe.”

Jones has pitched well this year, and with a lower xERA and FIP than his actual ERA, it suggests he has gotten a bit of bad luck, poor defense, or bad sequencing. 

If he can turn it up a bit on the mound, he could really help the Pirates as they try to fight and secure a spot in the wild card. 

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