The Federal Reserve released its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, opting to keep rates at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%
Though markets largely expected the Federal Open Market Committee to stay on hold, recent talk from several officials indicate there’s a sizable constituency to at least consider a hike
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan was most specific, saying she thinks rates should be “modestly” higher, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Governor Christopher Waller all have made statements supportive of tighter policy should inflation persist
Indeed, those three policymakers dissented with the Fed’s decision
At the post-decision press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said that while the Fed won’t provide hints on where rate policy is heading, it will take necessary steps to meet its 2% inflation goal
“I understand the desire for rolling forecasts and commentary from this committee, but for our part, we need to observe market reaction to developments direct and unfiltered,” he said. “I want to stress, of course, that decisions by this committee matter a great deal, and where necessary and appropriate, we will not hesitate to act.”
Bond yields jumped following the meeting, with the 30-year Treasury yield topping 5.2% and hitting its highest level since 2007. The rate on the 10-year yield rose more than 7 basis points to 4.677%
Inflation numbers of late have been at least a little comforting, as a brief decline in gasoline saw the consumer price index post a surprise 0.4% drop in June. But the price break at the pump has been reversed in the past few weeks as the situation in the Middle East has been highly volatile
“We’re going to have an interesting set of data points come out between now and the September meeting,” said Jerry Templeman, a former senior analyst at the New York Fed and now vice president of economics and fixed income research at Mutual of America Capital Management. “So, I don’t think that we’re going to necessarily be in the same position that we are today.”
9 Hours Ago
Trump: Warsh would ‘love to see lower interest rates’
US President Donald Trump during an announcement in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, July 29, 2026.
Aaron Schwartz | Bloomberg | Getty Images
President Donald Trump appeared to claim that Warsh would like to lower interest rates, but he’s being held back by the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee
“Kevin’s fantastic, but he’s got a board,” Trump, a long-time advocate for slashing rates, said at the White House when asked if he was at all disappointed with the Fed’s decision to keep them unchanged
“I know he’d love to see lower interest rates, but he’s got a board, and it’s a political board, and they want to keep rates up,” Trump said
“But we fight through rates,” the president added
9 Hours Ago
The job market is ‘playing second fiddle,’ Indeed economist says
The labor market has taken a backseat to inflation in the Fed’s eyes economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab
“Amidst all the ambiguity, one thing is clear: the trajectory of prices, not the labor market, will determine which policy scenario prevails in the short run,” Woessner said. “For now, the labor market is playing second fiddle, while inflation has first chair.”
Woessner noted that the labor market appears “more stable” compared with several months earlier
— Alex Harring
9 Hours Ago
Where markets stand after Fed Chairman Warsh’s press conference
A television station broadcasts Kevin Warsh, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, speaking after a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as a trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, July 29, 2026.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The major averages were heading for a losing day after Fed Chair Warsh wrapped up his July press conference
The S&P 500 was down 0.6% at 3:24 p.m. ET, while the Nasdaq Composite was off 0.5%. The Dow Industrials were last down more than 840 points, or 1.6%
The rate on the 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.657%, but the 2-year yield slid 4 basis points to 4.236%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield advanced more than 9 basis points to 5.193%
—Darla Mercado
9 Hours Ago
Warsh says press conferences will continue this year
Warsh confirmed that post-decision press conferences will continue in 2026
“Between now and year end, my predecessors and the Federal Reserve committed to press conferences this year. I’m committing to press conferences this year,” he said at the conference Wednesday
Warsh has stressed changing the way the Fed communicates, even dedicating one of five task forces he has created to address the issue
— Yun Li
10 Hours Ago
Warsh says he’ll be looking at task forces as
People take photos of the Grand Tetons in Grand Teton National Park where financial leaders from around the world gather for the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, outside Jackson, Wyoming, U.S.
Jim Urquhart | Reuters
With no meeting in August, the next big challenge for Warsh will be the Fed’s annual policy retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The event will run from Aug. 27 to 29
Traditionally, Fed leaders have used the symposium to outline broad policy objectives. Warsh said his keynote speech, for now, is “a blank piece of paper right now.”
However, he did say that he will be meeting with leaders of the five policy task forces he has created, and could use whatever information he gleans there as a starting point for the speech
“In the next couple weeks, I’m going to be doing a check back in, giving them time to sort of think hard about their agenda, their debate, their schedule, and when they might be ready for prime time,” he said. “I’ll be doing a little bit of that checking, and that may or may not inform anything I have to say in Jackson.”
—Jeff Cox
10 Hours Ago
Don’t characterize the decision to hold rates steady as a ‘pause,’ Warsh said
When asked by a reporter about the argument to “pause” interest rates rather than hike or cut them, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said he wouldn’t characterize the decision that way
“I wouldn’t characterize what we did as anything like a pause. I would characterize what we did as a rigorous review of the economic situation,” he said. “I would characterize what we did as a review of the big hard questions, and I’d characterize it as a view of what our own homework is to try to resolve those questions in the period ahead.”
He added that while the central bank decided not to alter interest rates today, this is merely the beginning of a story, not the end
— Davis Giangiulio
10 Hours Ago
Committee had a ‘good family fight,’ Warsh says
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks during a news conference at Federal Reserve Headquarters on July 29, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Win McNamee | Getty Images
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh across five public appearances has used the phrase “family fight” 13 times, and he used it again to acknowledge the three dissents over the central bank’s July interest rate decision
“I asked for a good family fight, and I got one,” he said. “Most of our discussion were on the big questions that matter to the conduct of monetary policy. We we didn’t sort of hide from them. We weren’t scared of them. There was a lot more interaction between and among my colleagues. It was a real family fight.”
While the majority of members of the Federal Open Market Committee agreed with holding rates steady in July, three dissented, arguing instead to hike rates to combat above-target inflation
— Davis Giangiulio
10 Hours Ago
Fed delivers ‘uncomfortable hold,’ says Thornburg’s Hoffmann
While the Fed held rates steady, the three dissents in the committee resulted in an “uncomfortable hold,” head of fixed income at Thornburg Investment Management
“I’m calling this an uncomfortable hold,” Hoffmann said
Hoffmann noted that the decision follows some “constructive” inflation readings. But he noted that oil is again rising as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran heats up once more
— Alex Harring
10 Hours Ago
Rate hikes difficult this year, says Vanguard
Vanguard’s senior economist, Adam Schickling, expects a prolonged period of policy stability
“While inflation remains elevated, we believe a cooling labor market and the limited effectiveness of monetary policy against supply-driven inflation pressures will make … rate hikes difficult this year,” he said. “The most important uncertainty facing markets today isn’t Fed messaging—it’s the combination of geopolitical risks and the long-term economic impact of AI.”
— Michelle Fox
10 Hours Ago
Warsh promises the Fed ‘will not hesitate to act’ to hit inflation goal
Chair of the Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh speaks during a news conference at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, DC, on July 29, 2026.
Win Mcnamee | Getty Images
While the Fed again chose not to act at this meeting, Warsh pledged that the central bank will take action if needed on inflation
The central bank chairman also noted, however, that the Fed under his watch isn’t in the forecasting business and won’t be providing further hints about where rates are heading
“I understand the desire for rolling forecasts and commentary from this committee, but for our part, we need to observe market reaction to developments direct and unfiltered,” he said. “I want to stress, of course, that decisions by this committee matter a great deal, and where necessary and appropriate, we will not hesitate to act.”
—Jeff Cox
10 Hours Ago
Warsh welcomes increasing market participation
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh acknowledged that treasury yields have risen since the last meeting of the central bank, despite the decision to hold rates steady today. That’s a fact that he welcomes
“Market attention centered on real data and real economic developments. Prices reacted in real time to incoming information,” he said. “Market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee, and market prices will continue to respond in the direction and magnitude they see fit.”
Warsh added that trend is one for the better, saying the Fed doesn’t always need to be the center of attention
— Davis Giangiulio
10 Hours Ago
Warsh: ‘We will deliver price stability’
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks during a news conference at Federal Reserve Headquarters on July 29, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Win McNamee | Getty Images
Earlier in his press conference, Warsh reiterate a key goal of the Fed is to keep inflation at manageable levels
“You’ve heard this before, but we will deliver price stability,” Warsh said
Warsh said the Fed does not have soft targets for inflation. He said the one target they are working towards is the 2% annual rate deemed healthy for the economy
“We have begun a new chapter, and we understand that the five-plus years of inflation above target cannot be cured in nine weeks, or by a single month of modest price decreases,” Warsh said. “This Fed will not waver. Our credibility rests on performing our duties and delivering on our responsibilities.”
— Alex Harring
10 Hours Ago
July’s rate decision marks the first time 3 voters dissented since 2016
Federal Reserve regional presidents Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari, Beth Hammack.
Desiree Rios | Bloomberg | John Lamparski | Getty Images | Jim Urquhart | Reuters
While the Federal Open Markets Committee opted to keep rates steady, a trio of policymakers dissented in favor of a hike – the most seen since September 2016
The “no” votes in July’s meeting came from regional presidents: Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas.
“We’re reading this as a Committee with vocal hawks, but the majority is siding with Warsh to keep rates stable until at least September when policymakers will have the benefit of the July and August CPI reports,” wrote Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates at BMO Capital Markets
Back in September 2016, the FOMC kept rates steady, with three Fed presidents dissenting in favor of a rate hike
—Darla Mercado
10 Hours Ago
Fed shows ‘no sign of taking steps’ to bring down inflation, economist says
Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, borrowed a favored phrase of Warsh’s to criticize what he views as the Fed overlooking inflationary pressures
“If inflation is a choice, the Federal Reserve meeting today shows no sign of taking steps to bring it under control with its primary monetary tool which is interest rates,” Rupkey said, referencing Warsh’s repeated comment that “inflation is a choice.”
Rupkey pointed out that the meeting statement did not include forward guidance, leaving investors in the dark about how members may vote at the September gathering. However, he acknowledged that it did include some insights from members showing that higher rates may be needed to bring down price growth
“At some point, markets are going to hit the snooze button on these Fed press statements if policymakers are going to refuse to send out smoke signals about what steps may be contemplated in the future,’ Rupkey said
— Alex Harring
10 Hours Ago
See what changed in the new Fed statement
The Fed released its second meeting statement under Chairman Kevin Warsh
Investors and economists were closely watching to see if the Fed would stray once again from a largely formulaic structure under former Chair Jerome Powell. While Wednesday’s release looks similar to the one released a month prior, it’s still much shorter than those published with Powell at the helm
Click here to see what changed
— Alex Harring
10 Hours Ago
Fed keeps rates unchanged: Where consumer borrowing costs go from here
A television displays the Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged as a trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, July 29, 2026.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The Fed’s benchmark rate influences a wide range of consumer borrowing and savings costs, including mortgages, credit cards, car loans and deposit rates
While shorter-term rates are closely pegged to the prime rate, longer-term rates are more dependent on inflation expectations and other economic factors
For example, 15- and 30-year fixed mortgage rates don’t directly track the Fed’s benchmark rate but also follow the lead of long-term Treasury rates. With renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, mortgage rates have already moved near a one-year high.
By contrast, most credit cards carry variable interest rates, which are tied more directly to the Fed’s benchmark. But with that rate holding steady, credit card APRs are also likely to remain elevated.
— Jessica Dickler
10 Hours Ago
A hike in September is ‘finely balanced,’ says Goldman Sachs Asset Management
The Fed appears to be running out of patience with above-target inflation, said Kay Haigh, global head and CIO of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management
“The committee’s growing hawkish sentiment, shown by the three dissents against today’s hold, has also likely been exacerbated by the recent flare up in hostilities in the Middle East,” he said. “A hike in September is finely balanced, with any further action likely dependent on a combination of developments in the Middle East and the next two CPI prints.”
— Michelle Fox
11 Hours Ago
Fed keeps rates steady, but three members dissented
At the conclusion of its July meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate at the target range of 3.5% to 3.75%
However, three members of the policymaking FOMC dissented with the move, and wanted to hike
Read more about the Fed’s decision from CNBC’s Jeff Cox here
—Darla Mercado
11 Hours Ago
Stocks are down heading into decision
Investors have been selling stocks into the Fed decision
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped around 1.5% shortly after 1:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each slid about 0.6%
Follow live markets updates here
— Alex Harring
11 Hours Ago
Hassett: Expect Warsh to ‘do the right thing’; Latest CPI proves Fed can control inflation
Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett speaks to reporters outside of the West Wing of the White House in Washington, DC, Feb. 25, 2026.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett expressed sky-high confidence in Warsh, telling CNBC his stewardship of the central bank is “already a home run” and “we trust his judgment.”
“We expect him to do the right thing, which is be an independent Fed that looks at the data, looks at the best models, and then makes the best judgment that he can,” Hassett said
Hassett did not say whether “the right thing” also involves making any particular decision regarding interest rates. But the NEC director added that the latest consumer price index reading, which showed a pullback in inflation, suggests that the Fed has inflation under control
“I think that anyone who looks at the latest CPI would have to say, you’ve got to be really bullish on the Fed’s ability to control inflation,” Hassett said, “because basically, they’re working in tandem with the White House to lower costs for everybody.”
— Kevin Breuninger
11 Hours Ago
Oil price jumps bolster inflationary concerns for Fed
This month’s climb in oil prices as fighting between the U.S. and Iran revved back up is a top-of-mind issue for consumers and economists heading into the Fed decision
Brent crude jumped more than 15% month to date in July as of Tuesday’s settle, putting the global oil benchmark on pace to snap a three-month negative streak. Brent has climbed more than 38% in 2026 as the Middle East conflict severely restricted transit in the Strait of Hormuz passageway
An average gallon of unleaded gas in the U.S. hit $4.09 on Wednesday That’s up roughly 6% from a month ago and 30% from the same day in 2025
Brent, 1-month
— Alex Harring
12 Hours Ago
The Fed’s plan to restore price stability relies on AI
Consumer prices are on the rise, but pay increases have been smaller even as workers have become more productive. Artificial intelligence might play a role in creating a productivity boom. This caught the attention of Fed Chairman Warsh, who recently announced productivity and jobs would be one of his task force priorities
CNBC’s Matt Peterson and Jeff Cox discuss the intersection between wages, inflation and artificial intelligence
—Darla Mercado
13 Hours Ago
Fed communication review could impact rate market volatility, UBS says
The task force review of the Fed’s communications could be one of the most consequential and have ramifications for volatility in rates markets
The bank’s chief investment office said in a Wednesday note that the so-called dot plot release has helped “anchor” expectations in the near term. Meanwhile, having forward guidance has decreased market volatility over the last two decades, the team said
Warsh announced his intention for task forces looking at several key aspects of Fed operations in June. He said earlier this month that the communication group would include University of Washington professor Peter Fisher and former Bank of England Governor Mervin King
— Alex Harring
14 Hours Ago
Expect markets to scrutinize Chairman Warsh’s more opaque Fed
A television displays a Kevin Warsh, chairman of the Federal Reserve, press conference as traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on June 17, 2026 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will host his second press conference at the helm of the central bank on Wednesday – and the market will keep a close ear on what he says
While the Fed is widely expected to keep a steady hand on interest rates this time, maintaining them at their 3.5% to 3.75% range, traders will be on the hunt for clues on how the central bank may proceed
Read more from CNBC’s Steve Liesman on how Warsh’s plan to detail less guidance on policy to the public may be put to the test by markets
—Darla Mercado
14 Hours Ago
Sahm expects FOMC statement to point to rate hike ahead
The post-meeting statement is likely to hint at a coming interest rate hike unless there’s more substantial progress on inflation, economist Claudia Sahm said
Following Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in June, the Federal Open Market Committee released a statement that was dramatically shorter than what had become the norm. The communique ditched prior boiler-plate language and included a simple declarative sentence that “The Committee will deliver price stability.”
Sahm, the chief economist for New Century Advisors, said she expects this statement to provide stronger clues about where the Fed is heading, despite Warsh’s disdain for forward guidance
Specifically, she foresees language stating: “Despite recent improvement, inflation is above the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks from the conflict in the Middle East and tariffs, as well as strong AI-related demand. If inflation remains elevated amid stable labor markets, some policy firming may be warranted soon to deliver price stability.”
Sahm also sees the statement issuing a more confident outlook on the labor market, saying conditions are “broadly consistent with the maximum employment mandate.”
—Jeff Cox
15 Hours Ago
Stocks open lower ahead of decision
Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange
NYSE
Stocks opened lower Wednesday, raising the stakes for the Fed rate decision this afternoon with the Dow losing nearly 400 points. Most of the negative sentiment was because of a spike in oil prices, which came after Trump told Fox News the U.S. would be hitting Iran hard in response to surprise attacks on personnel in the Middle East
Rates increased with the 10-year Treasury yield inching higher to 4.62%, near its highs for the year. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to Fed decisions, was higher by about 3 basis points to 4.3%, also near its highest levels of the year
Traders are mostly hoping the Warsh Fed will signal that it believes the oil shock from the Iran war is temporary and won’t rush to hike rates this year. Though some believe a single hike could be warranted and have the effect of calming the long-end of the rate curve by showing the central bank is serious about curbing inflation
-John Melloy
16 Hours Ago
JPMorgan predicts how the stock market will react to the rate decision
The best-case scenario for U.S. equities on Wednesday is if the Fed delivers a dovish hold as its interest rate decision
The bank’s trading desk predicts the S&P 500 would rise between 0.5% to 1% if that scenario unfolds.
JPMorgan’s trading desk, though, sees a hawkish hold as more likely to drag equities down. A hawkish hold would see an inclination toward rate hikes ahead, while the dovish would imply less of a likelihood that the Fed will tighten soon
A hawkish tilt could lead the S&P to still rise by 0.25% or, conversely, fall by 0.5%. However, the desk notes this is the most likely scenario, where central bank officials indicate rhetorically they’ll keep inflation at bay while maintaining the interest rate status quo.
A hike, though, could lead to a sell-off in the market. While unlikely — CME’s FedWatch tool gives just under a 36% chance of a 25 basis point hike happening — a rise in rates by a quarter point could facilitate a decline in the S&P of between 1.5% and 2%, according to the bank’s analysts
— Davis Giangiulio
16 Hours Ago
Citadel Securities expects Fed rate hike
Citadel Securities expects a surprise rate hike on Wednesday
“We think the market may once again be underestimating the extent of the hawkish shift at the Fed, and that the (for now) moderate increase in energy prices may tip an already finely balanced meeting in favor of a hike this week,” said Frank Flight, the firm’s head of macro strategy
Such a move would “emphatically end the forward guidance era” and underline the central bank’s independence, he said in a note Monday
“Most importantly, however, a surprise rate hike can meaningfully alter the price-setting and wage-formation process because it demonstrates to firms and workers, through a willingness to accept some cost to economic activity, that the central bank will not tolerate inflation,” Flight added
— Michelle Fox
16 Hours Ago
Tom Lee sees most likely Fed move as a hold
watch now
Despite speculation in some quarters that the Fed might try to pull off a surprise hike Wednesday, market strategist Tom Lee doesn’t see it happening, mainly because of recent progress on inflation
Fundstrat’s head of research said in his daily market note that the composition of the most recent inflation reading shows that shelter and other key components are moderating, giving the Fed leeway to hold rates steady
“So, we would be surprised that a Fed that values ‘data collection’ would take a somewhat superficial view that inflation pressures remain strong. Granted, inflation is not back at 2% but the tariff effects and higher oil are distorting these results,” he wrote
Lee did note that it’s possible the Fed could consider further reductions in asset holdings on its balance sheet
—Jeff Cox
17 Hours Ago
How Wall Street has been adjusting to the Warsh era
Christina Locopo | CNBC
Wall Street firms have been preparing for an era with less communication and forecasting expected out of the Warsh-run Fed
F/m Investments this month rolled out “WarshGPT,” an artificial intelligence-powered bot that helps users understand how Warsh is thinking about topics. UBS sent a note out to clients following his innaugural policy meeting press conference as chair analyzing how relevant his comments were to policy
Read the full story here
— Alex Harring
17 Hours Ago
Former Fed Governor Miran thinks rates should stay on hold
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran speaks with CNBC during the Invest i America Forum on Oct. 15, 2025.
CNBC
While a Federal Reserve Governor, Stephen Miran pushed for lower interest rates. Now, he thinks the central bank at least should stay on hold rather than considering hiking
In a CNBC interview, Miran said policymakers should consider the current spate of inflation as “transitory,” a view that got the Fed in trouble just a few years ago. However, he said this round is driven more by temporary effects from the Iran war, as evidenced by negative monthly inflation readings in June when oil prices fell
“The Fed should stay on hold based on this, but also based on everything else that’s going on in the economy,” said Miran, who served on the Fed from September 2025 to May 2026
“We had a marginally negative core [consumer price index] month-on-month print, so I don’t know what type of reaction function would say in June I thought it was appropriate to hold rates steady, but then I had a negative core CPI print, and that’s what pushed me over the edge to think I have to hike,” he added
—Jeff Cox
