How might artificial intelligence (AI) change the way militaries plan and fight campaigns? RAND researchers developed Camp(ai)gn, an unclassified operational-level wargame, to explore that question. In this paper, the authors offer initial takeaways from ten iterations of Camp(ai)gn featuring a hypothetical 2035 U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan and played by more than 20 RAND researchers and affiliates
From these games, the authors developed six observations about how AI-enabled autonomous systems could affect campaign planning and execution. First, autonomous systems could enable new forms of limited conflict—graduated, low-intensity operations fought primarily with robotic systems. Second, these limited conflicts could produce distinctive escalation dynamics and end states that differ from canonical visions of great-power wars. Third, autonomous mass could become especially important during protracted conflicts, potentially in ways that favor China. Fourth, autonomous mass could expand the commander’s decision space and reshape familiar operational trade-offs, though it also increases the decisionmaking burden on commanders. Fifth, AI and autonomous systems could introduce new roles for allies—in self-defense, direct combat participation, and coalition production. Sixth, attacking an adversary’s data centers is unlikely to deliver decisive operational effects or prove to be an Achilles’ heel for AI-enabled forces.
The authors end by emphasizing that these observations reflect gameplay-generated hypotheses, not established conclusions, and they point toward specific lines of inquiry—on force structure, countermeasures, allied integration, and defense industrial capacity—that warrant further research
A closeup of the Camp(ai)gn looking at Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific
Topics
Document Details
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Web-Only
- Year: 2026
- Pages: 40
- DOI:https://doi.org/10.7249/PEA5022-1
- Document Number: PE-A5022-1
Citation
RAND Style Manual
Burdette, Zachary, Barry Wilson, David R. Frelinger, Hiwot Demelash, and Julia Arnold, Exploring AI’s Operational Implications in a Future U.S.-China Conflict: Initial Observations from the Camp(ai)gn Wargame, RAND Corporation, PE-A5022-1, August 2026. As of August 13, 2026: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA5022-1.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Burdette, Zachary, Barry Wilson, David R. Frelinger, Hiwot Demelash, and Julia Arnold, Exploring AI’s Operational Implications in a Future U.S.-China Conflict: Initial Observations from the Camp(ai)gn Wargame. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA5022-1.html.
Research conducted by
- RAND Global and Emerging Risks
This effort was independently initiated and conducted by the Center for the Geopolitics of Artificial General Intelligence within RAND Global and Emerging Risks using income from operations and gifts from RAND supporters
This publication is part of the RAND expert insights series. The expert insights series presents perspectives on timely policy issues
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions
RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors
