- Americans remain deeply concerned about their financial future despite a surging stock market and lower gas prices, the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
- Amid the angst over rising prices for food and other goods, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is just 40%, with high negatives on his handling of the economy and the war with Iran.
- However, the news isn’t much better for Democrats. The party has just a 4-point edge on which party should control Congress.
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Despite a booming stock market and improving inflation numbers, the public is as depressed about the economy as it has been since the years just after the pandemic and increasingly concerned about the cost of everyday goods, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey
The result: continued deeply negative approval numbers for President Donald Trump yet only a modest advantage for Democrats when it comes to the public’s preference for control of Congress
The survey of 1,000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, found that 61% of the public is pessimistic about the current state of the economy and about the outlook for the future. That is the highest percentage since December 2023, when the country was just emerging from the pandemic-era inflation. Only 25% are optimistic about the economy now and for the future
“More voters expect things to get worse by a 41/29% margin, leaving the electorate in a distinctly sour mood heading into the midterm election cycle,” said Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollsters for the survey
In response to higher prices, 47% of the public report cutting back on essential items, like food and medical care, up six points from the April survey
Two-thirds say they are reducing purchases of non-essentials, like eating out and entertainment, up 5 points. Americans also say they are reducing travel and using credit cards in greater percentages than they did in April
These numbers come amid a recent decline in oil and gasoline prices and stand in contrast to steady and modest growth reported in national retail sales
But the national numbers could be driven by spending from the wealthy. The All-America survey finds that 60% of those with incomes below $30,000 are reducing their outlays for essentials, compared to just 35% of those with incomes above $100,000
The survey’s Democratic and Republican pollsters both say the modest drop in gasoline prices over the past several weeks is not enough to offset the lingering effects of both the recent and past surges in prices
“People are still paying a lot more for stuff than they were a year and a half ago, two years ago, and that’s recent enough in memory that it still hurts and it still drives a lot of anger,” said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey. “When gas prices drop 50 cents for a month, that’s just not enough to make up the difference.”
Low marks on the economy
Trump’s approval ratings remain deeply underwater, though largely unchanged from the CNBC April survey
The latest survey found the president’s net approval rating at 40%, with 59% disapproving, 1 point worse than the April survey. Sixty percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, compared with 38% approving. Both changes are within the poll’s margin of error but, at -22, place the president the most underwater he has been in his political career
The survey also found the public disapproving of Trump’s handling of the war with Iran by a 63% to 35% margin, and his handling of inflation and the cost of living by a 68% to 31% margin
Still the Democratic Party has just a 4-point advantage on congressional preference, unchanged from April, as it appears the party is only benefitting modestly from the dissatisfaction with the economy and the Iran war
“It means Democrats have an advantage at this point now, five months out from the election, but it’s not an overwhelming advantage,” Campbell said. “It doesn’t point to a wave at the moment and I think that’s what my baseline is.”
Both pollsters pointed to a sharply divided electorate being “locked into” their parties and reluctant to switch sides however much concern they may have with the economy. The survey found, for example, partisans digging in and increasing their support for their chosen party compared to April, largely offsetting each other and leading to no change in the overall preference for congressional control
It’s also an environment where each party has been defining the other by their extremes and having some success doing so
Half of all voters say they are unlikely to support a Democratic Socialist candidate, with 32% saying they would support one. An endorsement by the president is somewhat worse, with 52% saying they would not support such a candidate. Worst of all are self-described MAGA candidates, which the survey found 57% of the public said they would be unlikely to support
Split on the issues
On the most pressing issues, both parties have their own advantages
Democrats have a 7-point lead on the most important concern, the cost of food and groceries, and a 3-point lead on the second most important issue, “protecting democracy.”
But Republicans lead by 22 points on the third issue — immigration and border security — the largest advantage on any of the 10 issues on the list. That’s followed by a 6-point Democratic lead on housing and an 18-point advantage on the cost of health care
Democrats, independents and women, especially women 18-49, put the cost of food as the top issue. So do white voters and voters of color, along with voters in all income groups, except the very top income group who single out “protecting democracy.”
Republicans are the only major demographic group for whom immigration is the top issue. Meanwhile, voters aged 18-34 elevate housing to the top spot, with 46% saying it’s a major issue. The cost of food for the youngest cohort is a distant second at 33%
Among the starkest divisions in the survey are those surrounding the war with Iran, which has lost support compared to the April survey
Just 48% of the public believe the military action against Iran is worth it to disrupt the country’s ability to develop nuclear weapons, down from 53% in April. Half the country say it’s not worth it, up from 44% in the prior survey. The president’s net approval on dealing with Iran fell to -28, 3 points worse than the prior survey
Trump is underwater with parts of his own party on the Iran war. Just 47% of non-MAGA Republicans, who represent about a third of the GOP, approve of the president’s handling of Iran, with 50% approving. By contrast, 86% of MAGA Republicans support the president’s handling of the issue
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