College football has a way of pulling teams back toward the middle. Even the best programs rarely escape the forces that make sustained success so difficult
Most preseason projections land relatively close to last year’s mark. Of the 68 Power Four teams (including Notre Dame), 48 have a win total within 1.5 games of their 2025 regular-season output Oddsmakers don’t expect major swings for most teams, but a handful stand out, with win totals that have dropped or increased considerably from where they finished a season ago
Regression doesn’t necessarily mean a disappointing season, either. In several cases, teams coming off historically good campaigns were always going to struggle to replicate that success. Others simply face significantly tougher schedules, major roster turnover or coaching changes that have lowered expectations
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Below are the 10 teams FanDuel projects to regress the most in 2026. Next week, we will flip the script and look at the teams it expects to take the biggest step forward. But for now, a considerably less optimistic list
Ohio State
2025 regular season wins: 12 | FanDuel win total: 9.5
When a team goes undefeated in the regular season, anything short of another perfect mark reads as regression. The Buckeyes have the third-highest preseason win total in the Big Ten but notably behind reigning champion Indiana and Oregon.
The most likely reason for Ohio State’s potential dip in 2026 is the strength of schedule, which projects as one of the toughest in the country with games against six teams in CBS Sports’ post-spring top 25. It certainly isn’t for a lack of talent or coaching, that’s for sure. Ryan Day’s squad returns 11 total starters, including eight on offense alone.
Still, it wouldn’t be wise to bet against the Buckeyes. They’ve lost more than two regular-season games just once since 2005
Texas A&M
2025 regular season wins: 11 | FanDuel win total: 8.5
The Aggies finally experienced a long-awaited breakthrough last year, reaching 11 regular-season wins for just the second time in program history. Following up on that won’t be easy in 2026.
The conference grind gets heavier with the new nine-game schedule, and Texas A&M’s SEC gauntlet is notably tougher than last year’s. The roster took a hit, too.
The Aggies matched a program record with 10 selections in the 2026 NFL Draft. The transfer portal haul helps offset some of that, but a step back toward the mean is a realistic expectation. Since joining the SEC in 2012, Texas A&M has averaged 7.5 regular-season wins per year
2025 regular season wins: 11 | FanDuel win total: 8.5
If anyone is positioned to knock off Texas Tech from its sudden rise to power in the Big 12, it’s BYU. The Cougars rank third nationally in returning snap percentage, bringing back 62.5% of last year’s production, including quarterback Bear Bachmeier and preseason Big 12 Player of the Year LJ Martin at running back.
Another double-digit win season would be Kalani Sitake’s fifth in the last eight years, but it hinges on a handful of toss-up games: a home date with Arizona, as well as road trips to TCU and Utah. A win over Notre Dame in Provo on Oct. 17 would go a long way toward BYU avoiding a step back
Oklahoma
2025 regular season wins: 10 | FanDuel win total: 7.5
If the up-and-down tenure of Brent Venables has taught us anything, it’s that consistency has been hard to find. The Sooners have alternated six-win and 10-win regular seasons during his first four years in Norman, making another dip seem like the logical next step
Despite returning 14 starters (tied for second-most in the FBS) and welcoming back a healthy John Mateer, Oklahoma faces one of the nation’s most unforgiving schedules. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Sooners entered mid-October with three losses, facing road trips to Michigan and Georgia before the annual Red River Rivalry with Texas in Week 6. And the schedule doesn’t ease up from there.
November features four more opponents in CBS Sports’ post-spring top 25 (at Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, at Missouri), leaving little margin for error if Oklahoma is once again fighting for a College Football Playoff berth
Virginia
2025 regular season wins: 10 | FanDuel win total: 7.5
No FBS roster has more experience than Virginia. In an era of transfer-portal churn, that’s a valuable asset, but it hasn’t swayed oddsmakers. A year after posting just their second 10-win regular season in program history and reaching the ACC Championship Game, there’s reason to believe some regression is coming.
Virginia capitalized on one of the easiest schedules in the entire Power Four last season and again avoided most of the other ACC’s top contenders in 2026. But last year’s record was propped up by a four-game stretch in which the Cavaliers won three overtime battles and survived another on a late safety. Hard to bank on that good fortune again
Georgia Tech
2025 regular season wins: 9 | FanDuel win total: 6.5
Perhaps Georgia Tech’s collapse in November was a sign of things to come in 2026. The bottom isn’t going to fall out for Brent Key, but this offseason presents a real challenge. Much of the offensive personnel is different, with only 24% of the snaps returning, and both coordinators needed to be replaced.
Transfer quarterback Alberto Mendoza, younger brother of Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, is the presumptive starter but has never made a college start. Nine wins were hard enough to accomplish. Doing it again with this many new pieces would be asking a lot
Wake Forest
2025 regular season wins: 8 | FanDuel win total: 5.5
The Demon Deacons were one of college football’s overachievers in Year 1 under coach Jake Dickert. Picked to finish second-to-last in the ACC preseason media poll, Wake Forest won eight regular-season games. And although 10 starters return from that team, just two are on offense, where the Demon Deacons welcome transfer quarterback Gio Lopez and pair him with one of the least experienced offensive lines in the Power Four. Wake Forest is also set to face seven of its nine ACC opponents with a higher projected win total. Overachieving twice in a row is a tall order.
Ole Miss
2025 regular season wins: 11 | FanDuel win total: 7.5
Imagine where this preseason win total would be if Trinidad Chambliss hadn’t won his legal battle for another year of eligibility. Ole Miss is one of the mystery teams in college football, where momentum from last year’s run to the College Football Playoff semifinals under Pete Golding could continue, or fade once reality hits without Lane Kiffin. He brought the program to new heights, perhaps benefiting from a weaker schedule by SEC standards the past two seasons. That’s not the case in 2026, with Golding set to face six teams ranked in CBS Sports’ post-spring top 25.
Iowa State
2025 regular season wins: 8 | FanDuel win total: 4.5
After decades of struggling to find sustained success, Iowa State finally experienced what it feels like to be a consistent winner under Matt Campbell. Now, with Campbell gone, the Cyclones enter a new era that could come with some growing pains. First-year coach Jimmy Rogers has expressed confidence that Iowa State can remain competitive, but the roster turnover is impossible to ignore. The Cyclones rank among FBS teams with the least returning production and have welcomed an astounding 82 newcomers as Rogers reshapes the program.
Vanderbilt
2025 regular season wins: 10 | FanDuel win total: 5.5
Diego Pavia authored arguably the greatest season by a quarterback in Vanderbilt history, leading the Commodores to a program-record 10 regular-season wins. Following up on that was always going to be difficult. Five-star true freshman Jared Curtis has all the physical tools to become the program’s next star under center, but asking an unproven quarterback to immediately replicate Pavia’s production in the SEC is asking a lot. Vanderbilt should remain respectable under Clark Lea, but matching last season’s breakthrough feels unlikely as the Commodores transition to a new face of the offense.
