Economy: IMF forecasts modest growth for Italy, cuts estimates for France and Germany
Gabriele Barbati
Wed, 8 July 2026 at 10:01 pm GMT+5:30
3 min read
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirms growth of 0.5% for Italy both this year and in 2027. The figures are set out in the World Economic Outlook published on Wednesday
They are “modest but expected” levels, noted the Fund’s deputy director of research, Petya Koeva Brooks. “The investments planned under the NRRP (National Recovery and Resilience Plan) continue to support economic activity. At the same time, higher energy and food prices and elevated uncertainty are weighing on household consumption,” Brooks said
As for inflation, “the forecast has been revised upwards, partly because of greater dependence on energy imports, and we expect it to remain above target until 2028,” she added
The World Economic Outlook also confirms its projections for the Spanish economy at 2.1% and 1.8% GDP growth in 2026 and 2027, while the forecasts for France and Germany are revised downwards for 2026
What the IMF expects for the main EU economies and the rest of the world
The Fund identifies developments in the Middle East as the most immediate risk in its report
“An escalation in geopolitical tensions would harm growth and worsen inflationary pressures. That said, if the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were to proceed more smoothly than expected and commodity prices were to come in below the baseline scenario, growth could be higher and inflation lower,” the outlook states
France is expected to grow by 0.6% this year, 0.3 percentage points less than forecast in April. For 2027, growth is estimated at 0.9%
For Germany, the Fund projects GDP growth of 0.7% this year and 1.0% next year
The Chinese economy, by contrast, is forecast to grow by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, confirming a slowdown from last year’s 5%, once seen as the critical threshold for the stability of Beijing’s politico-economic system
The Brazilian economy is projected to grow by 2.4% at the end of 2026, before slipping by two percentage points the following year, in line with the Latin American average, whose growth is also estimated at 2.4% year on year compared with 2025
Forecasts for Africa are broadly stable, averaging between 4.3% and 5.2% for this year, but with major internal differences. Among the largest economies, projections range from Nigeria’s 4.3% growth in 2027 to just 1.3% for South Africa
The IMF’s warnings and possible solutions
Alongside concerns over energy costs, the outlook highlights worries about fertilisers and foodstuffs. In 2026 the prices of the former could rise by a total of 26% and those of the latter by 8%, driven up by higher energy and transport costs
