When you’re tasked with predicting which rookies will provide the greatest Year 1 returns, the obvious temptation is to spotlight all the first-round picks. After all, they were the most highly coveted prospects just a few months ago
But where’s the fun in that? Nobody lives to project CHALK. So, of the 25 players selected in this exercise, less than half came from Round 1. (Granted, three slots are reserved for special teamers, but cut me some slack here, people — I’m trying!)
Alright, enough preamble. Which newbies will produce the most profound 2026 impacts at each position? Here is my forecast
OFFENSE
Pos.
QB
Fernando Mendoza
Las Vegas Raiders
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 1 overall
The Raiders are telling anyone who will listen that they intend to slow-play Mendoza’s NFL integration, suggesting veteran signee Kirk Cousins could hold the starting reins far longer than most anticipate. Color me skeptical — overwhelmingly so. Carson Palmer is the last No. 1 overall pick to get a redshirt season, spending the entire 2003 campaign on the sideline. In the intervening years, 16 quarterbacks went first overall and all of them saw the field in Year 1. In fact, 12 made double-digit starts, and only one — JaMarcus Russell — started fewer than seven games. I expect Mendoza to play a lot in 2026, which isn’t something you can say about any other rookie QB, even if Carson Beck has a chance to eventually get snaps in Arizona. This is the most obvious pick of this exercise.
Pos.
RB
Jeremiyah Love
Arizona Cardinals·RB
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 3 overall
Was it wise for the rebuilding Cardinals to spend the No. 3 overall pick on a running back? That’s a discussion for a different space, but there’s no debating that Love brings much-needed juice to Arizona’s backfield. Last season, the Cards ran the ball at the lowest rate in the league (34.1%), rushed for the second-fewest yards (93.1 per game) and logged the third-fewest carries of 10-plus yards (35). Free-agent signee Tyler Allgeier augments the thunder component long provided by stalwart back James Conner, but this rookie is lightning personified — as a runner or receiver.
Pos.
RB
Jonah Coleman
Denver Broncos·RB
DRAFTED: Round 4, No. 108 overall
Checking in at 5-foot-8 and 220 pounds, Coleman is a bowling ball with three-down ability, having eclipsed 1,100 scrimmage yards in each of his final three college campaigns. It’s a crowded running back room in Denver, but J.K. Dobbins has never stayed healthy for a full season while RJ Harvey performed best in a specialized role as a rookie. Sean Payton likes taking a committee approach at the position, and Coleman seems like the kind of experienced, well-rounded back who can hit the ground running the NFL, carving out a significant role in Year 1. He lacks game-breaking speed, but I envision him routinely moving the chains behind Denver’s stout offensive line.
Pos.
WR
Jordyn Tyson
New Orleans Saints
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 8 overall
Can we turn injuries off? Because without the health concerns, Tyson strikes me as the best receiver in this class — a true X who can push new teammate Chris Olave back into the Z role that best suits his speedy skill set. But alas, this isn’t a video game, and I have to face the fact that Tyson has suffered a laundry list of injuries that forced him to miss multiple games in each of his four college seasons. So, yes, in the warm summer glow of hope season, I’m admittedly playing with fire here.
Pos.
WR
Denzel Boston
Cleveland Browns
DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 39 overall
For this second receiver slot, I narrowed the choice down to a pair of freshly minted Browns with diametrically opposed games. First-round pick KC Concepcion is a bursty separator who offers catch-and-run ability in a compact frame, while Boston is a smooth power forward who excels in contested-catch situations. Ultimately, I chose the latter, who was selected 15 picks after the former. Perhaps I’m just a prisoner of the moment, but the 6-4 Boston seems to be accumulating more early buzz in Berea. Now, the Browns clearly still have a huge question mark at quarterback, which theoretically caps all pass-catching production. Then again, Cleveland’s eternal suffering at the game’s most important position didn’t prevent Amari Cooper from making the Pro Bowl in 2023 … or Jerry Jeudy from following suit in 2024 … or Harold Fannin Jr. from finishing second among all 2025 rookies with 72 catches.
Pos.
TE
Eli Stowers
Philadelphia Eagles·TE
DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 54 overall
In his four-year run with the Eagles, A.J. Brown averaged 130 targets per season. So, in the wake of Brown’s trade to New England, Philadelphia has an obvious pass-catching vacuum. Who will fill it? First-round receiver Makai Lemon certainly factors in as a slot machine to complement DeVonta Smith, but I wouldn’t overlook the potential impact of this second-round tight end. Truth be told, Stowers feels more like a supersized receiver at 6-4, 239 pounds. A converted quarterback who showcased rare athleticism at the NFL Scouting Combine, the reigning John Mackey Award winner (college football’s most outstanding tight end) wasn’t drafted to be an in-line blocker. But in an NFL that’s increasingly obsessed with multi-TE formations, new Eagles OC Sean Mannion could deploy the rookie in a playmaking role to complement veteran mainstay Dallas Goedert and recently inked blocking tight end Johnny Mundt.
Pos.
OT
Spencer Fano
Cleveland Browns
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 9 overall
Andrew Berry deftly managed the Browns’ top-10 pick in April, trading down three spots to accumulate additional draft currency and still getting his pick of the O-line litter. A true freshman starter at left tackle for Utah, Fano spent the past two seasons manning the right edge for the Utes. Now, it appears he’ll be moving back to the blind side in Cleveland, where the Browns are undergoing an extreme makeover of the offensive line. There are questions about Fano’s length and strength, but the supremely athletic “dancing bear” didn’t allow a single sack in his final 23 games for Utah, per Pro Football Focus.
Pos.
OT
Blake Miller
Detroit Lions·OT
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 17 overall
With Penei Sewell moving back to his college position on the blind side after Detroit’s release of Taylor Decker, Miller is in a camp battle with veteran signee Larry Borom for the starting job at right tackle. I share the common sentiment that the rookie will ultimately win out because he was drafted for his NFL readiness. Having started all 54 games in the past four seasons of Clemson football, Miller broke the program record for career snaps from scrimmage (3,778). One thing that could really help the 22-year-old’s transition to the pros: The Lions’ last-place schedule isn’t exactly littered with edge monsters, especially if Micah Parsons takes time to return to form following his December ACL tear.
Pos.
OG
Olaivavega Ioane
Baltimore Ravens
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 14 overall
One of the cleanest prospects in this draft cycle, Ioane was universally regarded as the top interior offensive lineman in the class. He’s a Day 1 starter at right guard in Baltimore’s rebuilt interior, and the rugged road grader will fuel a run game that has finished top three in every season since Lamar Jackson joined the party in 2018, with the Ravens comfortably pacing the league in ground gains during four of those eight campaigns. Everyone spent months mocking Vega to Baltimore — and then the pairing actually came to fruition in April — because it was an obvious marriage of draft value and team need. Now, it’s time to see the fruits of our collective matchmaking. I anticipate harmony.
Pos.
OG
Chase Bisontis
Arizona Cardinals·G
DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 34 overall
A starter during all three of his seasons at Texas A&M, Bisontis is competing for the right guard job in Arizona with 2024 third-round pick Isaiah Adams, who’s participating in training camp despite a recent arrest on gun charges in his native Canada. Regardless of how that legal situation plays out for Adams, I’m giving the rookie the inside track in this position battle, seeing how the talent-poor Cardinals pounced on Bisontis with the second pick of the second round. A finisher in the ground game, Bisontis will look to validate Arizona’s controversial pick of Jeremiyah Love by blowing open holes for the running back for years to come.
Pos.
C
Logan Jones
Chicago Bears·C
DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 57 overall
Fresh off making his first Pro Bowl at age 27, Drew Dalman shockingly retired in March, suddenly leaving Chicago with a gaping hole at the pivot. The Bears quickly traded for veteran center Garrett Bradbury as a stopgap solution, but they continued to fortify the position with their second-round pick in April. Jones actually began his Iowa career as a defensive lineman but crossed the line of scrimmage following Tyler Linderbaum’s graduation and started four straight years as the Hawkeyes’ center, earning myriad accolades along the way, including the 2025 Rimington Trophy (CFB’s top center). Turning 25 years old in October, Jones enters the NFL with a mature game, as underscored by an AFC personnel director’s commentary to my colleague Lance Zierlein: “He’s fun to watch. He plays like he’s got two kids and a mortgage to pay, man. That kind of grown-man effort.”
DEFENSE
Pos.
EDGE
Rueben Bain Jr.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers·EDGE
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 15 overall
I guess I don’t care about arm length. After extensive discussion about his 30 7/8-inch measurement, Bain stunningly lasted until the 15th pick of the draft. It was a no-brainer selection for the Buccaneers, who just finished in the bottom half of the league in sacks for the first time since the Dirk Koetter era in Tampa Bay. Bain piled up five sacks in four College Football Playoff games, finishing the season with an FBS-high 83 QB pressures, per Pro Football Focus. He’s a violent game-wrecker with heavy hands and explosive power, but Todd Bowles came away from minicamp most impressed by the 21-year-old’s football IQ.
“For me, it is his intelligence, his understanding of the game,” the Bucs coach said in June,ch, and he does not learn like a normal rookie and he does some things that a three- or four-year guy can do.”
Pos.
EDGE
Cashius Howell
Cincinnati Bengals·EDGE
DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 41 overall
I guess I really don’t care about arm length. Howell’s measurement was even shorter than Rueben Bain Jr.’s at 30 1/4 inches, which helps explain why the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year fell into Round 2. The undersized defensive end could be a liability on early downs, but Cincinnati didn’t draft the 6-3, 255-pounder to stop the run. With Trey Hendrickson now playing for the rival Ravens, the Bengals need guys to heat up opposing quarterbacks. Last year’s first-round pick, Shemar Stewart, proved to be as raw as many feared, so Cincy went back to the Texas A&M edge factory for a different model. As a speed ball with a deep bag of tricks, Howell has the kind of refined skill set that can provide immediate returns in a DPR (designated pass rusher) role. For comparison’s sake, Howell had more sacks last October (5.5) than Stewart had in his three-season college career (4.5). So, yes, I expect Howell to blow past Stewart’s rookie sack total of one.
Pos.
DT
Kayden McDonald
Houston Texans·DT
DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 36 overall
I think it’s fair to say Seattle fielded the NFL’s best defense last season — after all, the “Dark Side” allowed the fewest points AND hoisted the Lombardi Trophy — but Houston’s ferocious unit was a close second. And this feels like the kind of addition that could help close the gap. Not that the Texans’ incumbent DTs are bad — I recently highlighted Tommy Togiai’s underratedness, while Sheldon Rankins just signed an extension after a resurgent season — but McDonald provides a beefier body at 326 pounds. And the big man makes plays, recording a whopping 62 tackles last season for Ohio State. Putting this kind of interior presence between Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter promises havoc.
Pos.
DT
Chris McClellan
Green Bay Packers
DRAFTED: Round 3, No. 77 overall
After Jeff Hafley took Miami’s head-coaching job, Green Bay hired Jonathan Gannon as its new defensive coordinator. Given Gannon’s tendency to run a three-man front far more often than Hafley, the Packers suddenly had a screaming need at the nose. Consequently, Brian Gutekunst traded up on Day 2 of the draft to land McClellan. Standing 6-4 and 313 pounds with 11-inch meat hooks for hands, McClellan cuts an imposing figure. And he’s not just a space-eater, either, having posted six sacks last season to go along with 48 tackles (eight for loss).
Pos.
LB
Sonny Styles
Washington Commanders·LB
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 7 overall
The Fred Warner comp gets tossed around far too frequently, but it’s not hard to understand why. Warner is the platonic ideal of a modern linebacker. Every team wants one! And Commanders GM Adam Peters — who was San Francisco’s vice president of player personnel when the 49ers drafted Warner — hopes Washington just landed its own version. Now, to pump the brakes on this lavish comparison, Styles doesn’t have Warner’s elite linebacking instincts — which is understandable, considering the former five-star recruit played safety during his first two seasons at Ohio State. But his pedigree (son of former NFL linebacker Lorenzo Styles), size (6-5, 244) and eye-popping athleticism (4.46 40-yard dash, 43.5-inch vertical leap) make you feel like it’s OK to dream big.
Pos.
LB
CJ Allen
Indianapolis Colts·LB
DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 53 overall
Back in March, just before the start of the new league year, the cap-strapped Colts traded defensive captain Zaire Franklin to Green Bay. This left a massive void in the middle of Indianapolis’ defense. Over the past four years, Franklin logged the most tackles (643) and defensive snaps (4,320) in the league. Suffice it to say, Allen has big shoes to fill. But DC Lou Anarumo has expressed immense confidence in the new linebacker, who appears poised to don the green dot as Indy’s defensive nerve center in Year 1.
“He’s all about football. He’s a gym rat. It’s all he cares about,” Anarumo said in May on The Colts Show podcast. “So, I think, sky’s the limit for him.”
Pos.
CB
Mansoor Delane
Kansas City Chiefs
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 6 overall
After both of the Chiefs’ starting cornerbacks joined the Rams — Trent McDuffiep the draft board for Delane. This prospect crop’s consensus CB1 was a true lockdown artist for LSU last season. According to PFF, he allowed just 165 yards over 11 games, posting a 31.3 passer rating against. (Reminder: Spiking the ball every play would produce a passer rating of 39.6.)
Pos.
CB
Jermod McCoy
Las Vegas Raiders·CB
DRAFTED: Round 4, No. 101 overall
The Raiders rolled the dice on this draft pick. Now, I’m following suit with this admittedly spicy selection. McCoy could be the biggest steal in the draft — IF he’s able to return to his 2024 form. That version of McCoy looked like a first-round lock. But then the cornerback missed the entire 2025 season while recovering from a torn ACL. And apparently, a degenerative knee issue sapped his draft stock even more, ultimately making him the first pick of Day 3. He’s ready for training camp, though, and I’m ready to throw caution to the wind.
Pos.
NB
Caleb Downs
Dallas Cowboys
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 11 overall
Dallas’ defense hit rock bottom last season, allowing the most points in franchise history. So, the Cowboys pilfered hot coaching candidate Christian Parker from the rival Eagles and gave their new defensive coordinator an influx of talentay the Cooper DeJean role, might be the best fit of all
At Parker’s introductory press conference back in February, two months before Dallas drafted Downs, the DC was asked about the importance of the nickel position in his scheme. His answer was instructive
“Very important. Yeah, very important,” Parker stressed. “That guy, you know, he’s a corner sometimes, he’s a safety sometimes, he’s a ‘backer sometimes. He’s a defensive end when he’s blitzing. You want to have a guy who has natural instincts and ability to feel the game and play football. He’s usually a guy who, if you were playing football on a Saturday afternoon in the neighborhood, he’s your first-round draft pick. Just because he feels the game naturally.”
All of that screams Caleb Downs. This is a perfect pairing
Pos.
S
Dillon Thieneman
Chicago Bears
DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 25 overall
The reigning NFC North champions saw some notable attrition on both sides of the ball this offseason, but no area of the roster suffered more losses than the back end of the defense, where safeties Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker and C.J. Gardner-Johnson all departed in free agency. On the plus side, the Bears signed Coby Bryant away from the Super Bowl champion Seahawks. And then they drafted one of my favorite players in this class. Thieneman started every game in three years at Purdue/Oregon, and over the course of his decorated college career, the supreme athlete fulfilled every possible duty you could ask of a safety: ballhawking in center field; banging in the box; covering receivers in the slot. Bryant, who entered the league as a cornerback, offers plenty of versatility himself. This feels like the kind of multifaceted safety duo Dennis Allen can really sink his teeth into.
Pos.
S
A.J. Haulcy
Indianapolis Colts·SAF
DRAFTED: Round 3, No. 78 overall
Free agency giveth and taketh away. Last offseason, Indianapolis signed Cam Bynum, whose free safety skill set nicely complemented Nick Cross’ box-friendly game. This offseason, Cross signed with Washington, leaving a hole next to Bynum. Insert Haulcy, a heavy hitter whose natural instincts breed ball production in zone coverage. Bynum is already a big fan of his new running mate
“First day of practice, he had a one-handed, snag pick on an over route. Snatched it out the air,” Bynum said in June. “What he’s been doing so far, learning the defense, sitting next to me in film … I’m able to get a lot of knowledge from him, then vice versa: I’m able to give whatever I can to him. Just from the whole room, I think everybody’s been embracing all the rookies, but especially A.J. He’s been doing a really good job of filling in and rotating in — heavy, heavy rotating with the ones. I think he’s been doing a really good job and operating like a vet.”
SPECIAL TEAMS
Pos.
K
Drew Stevens
Washington Commanders
Just one kicker was taken in the 2026 NFL Draft: Trey Smack, whom Green Bay selected with the last pick of the sixth round. The name POPS, no doubt about it, but how will the former Florida Gator’s kicking game transition from the Sunshine State to the Frozen Tundra? Perhaps I’m overthinking this, but I’m more drawn to Stevens, who set Iowa career records for most field goals made (76) and most FGs of 50-plus yards (12). He’ll have to beat out Jake Moody for the job in Washington, but that 2023 third-round pick isn’t exactly a model of consistency, thus explaining why he’s already on his third NFL team.
Pos.
P
Ryan Eckley
Baltimore Ravens
DRAFTED: Round 6, No. 211 overall
Four years ago, after the retirement of longtime punter Sam Koch, the Ravens drafted Jordan Stout to fill the role. After struggling with consistency for a few years, Stout earned first-team All-Pro honors last season … but then followed John Harbaugh to the Giants in March, becoming the highest-paid punter in league history. A month later, Baltimore took the first punter in this year’s draft. Eckley led the FBS with an average of 48.5 yards per punt in 2025, and he’s already made an impression on Ravens special teams coordinator Anthony Levine Sr.
“His confidence is crazy,” Levine said with a big smile in June. “And I’m gonna keep using this word, because that’s what we preach: being efficient. With him, man, he’s very efficient, but his confidence … His confidence is out the roof.”
Pos.
RET
Kaden Wetjen
Pittsburgh Steelers
DRAFTED: Round 4, No. 121 overall
Kaleb Johnson made one of the most embarrassing blunders of last season. After a kickoff got past the Steelers returner, he apparently thought the play would be dead and started jogging to the sideline, allowing the Seahawks to recover the ball in the end zone for a touchdown. The critical miscue not only played a big part in Pittsburgh’s Week 2 loss, but it also appeared to derail the rookie running back’s season before it ever got going. And apparently, it left the Steelers on tilt to the point where they spent a fourth-round pick on a return specialist. Granted, Wetjen is no run-of-the-mill returner. The elusive speedster just became the first two-time winner of the Jet Award (CFP’s top returner), having housed four punts and two kickoffs over the past two seasons. In 2025, the man averaged a staggering 26.8 yards per punt return.
