Along with the heat, the summer brings the return of fantasy football. Depending on how dedicated, diehard and/or degenerate you and your league are, the draft might be just a few weeks away. So, it’s time to start studying
My colleague Dan Parr has provided his tiered rankings of each position, and one useful application of those pecking orders is marrying them with draft expectations to find value. Specifically, whose ranking substantially outstrips his average draft position — known as ADP in the industry — and could set you up for success in 2026?
I’m here to bring you seven of my favorite answers to that question — from the very top of drafts to the bottom — at each position, concluding with tight end
- Average draft position (ADP) data comes via ESPN.
- This article series follows a point per reception (PPR) scoring format.
Rank
7
Jake Ferguson
Dallas Cowboys
Average draft position:Round 10
Last season, with Dak Prescott healthy all year, Ferguson was the fantasy TE5. In 2023, with Prescott playing a full season, Ferguson was the TE9. And in Prescott’s seven games before injury in 2024, Ferguson was the TE14 despite a flukey zero touchdowns on 38 receptions. Since the start of the 2023 campaign, he’s third among tight ends in both targets and receptions, behind Trey McBride and Travis Kelce. Even with the touchdown drought in 2024, he’s scored the sixth-most fantasy points at the position since 2023.
Despite all this, and relatively few changes to the Dallas offense entering 2026, Ferguson is the TE12 in ADP. It might be because he doesn’t have No. 1 overall upside or the name recognition of George Kittle or Kelce. Whatever the reason, it makes Ferguson an easy value in Round 10, where he’s being picked in the range of tertiary wide receivers, committee running backs and kickers (please don’t draft a kicker in the 10th round). If you want to focus on other positions early and snag a solid TE1 at a discount, draft Ferguson.
Rank
6
Brenton Strange
Jacksonville Jaguars
Average draft position:Undrafted
Strange saw 23 targets over the first four weeks of last season before suffering a hip injury in Week 5. After his return in Week 12, he was the TE8 the rest of the season (77.6 fantasy points). Among tight ends with 50-plus targets last year, Strange ranked fourth in yards per target (9.0) and first in EPA/target (0.64), just ahead of George Kittle, Colston Loveland and Trey McBride. In other words, Strange has flashed the efficiency to join the upper tier of tight ends in his fourth season
The big hurdle is target volume, with Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and (at times) Travis Hunter at wide receiver for Jacksonville. But talent usually rises to the top in the NFL and I see serious talent in the former Penn State tight end. He might end up on waivers in your league, but he has legitimate top-10 upside. At the very least, flag Strange for a September pickup if he has a solid start. Or, in a league with deeper benches, consider picking him up late to pair with another tight end for multiple shots at the bargain breakout.
Rank
5
Kyle Pitts
Atlanta Falcons
Average draft position:Round 6
Heading into last season, the Never Kyle Pitts crowd had all but overrun fantasy drafts following three mostly disappointing years from the fourth overall pick of the 2021 draft. But Pitts rewarded his small band of loyal truthers with 88 catches, 928 yards, five touchdowns and a fantasy TE2 finish. He continued his amusingly consistent streak of scoring exactly one additional touchdown each season, and hit new career highs in targets (118) and receptions (88)
It’s true that Pitts did a sizable chunk of his damage with Drake London absent, including a 166-yard, three-touchdown game in Week 15. I believe that’s a significant reason he’s being drafted as the TE5 in the sixth round instead of the TE3 or TE4 in the fourth round. My counterpoint: new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees was the Browns’ tight ends coach in 2024 and OC in 2025, when the Browns ranked fourth and second in tight end targets, respectively. Also, Pitts saw a career-low 7.2 air yards per target last year, per Next Gen Stats. With a potentially larger target share and better efficiency, Pitts should maintain his spot in the top tier of fantasy tight ends, making him a value pick two rounds behind Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren.
Rank
4
Tyler Warren
Indianapolis Colts
Average draft position:Round 4
Even in Round 4, Warren could be a screaming value in PPR leagues. If you’re looking to snag the next Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce or Brock Bowers — aka the tight end who becomes his team’s No. 1 target and puts himself in the conversation for fantasy TE1 — Warren is your best bet. The 14th overall pick of the 2025 draft caught 76 of 112 targets as a rookie to end the season as the TE4 overall. Warren accomplished the feat despite the presence of Michael Pittman Jr. in Indy and the loss of QB Daniel Jones to injury in the final month.
Now, with Pittman gone to Pittsburgh, Warren will be contending with Josh Downs — also an excellent value — to lead Indy in targets (I don’t view the Colts’ Alec Pierce as a high-volume WR1). Warren is an excellent weapon in the red zone and is probably the only tight end outside of Bowers and Trey McBride with 300-point upside in PPR leagues. Nevertheless, he’s going just behind Colston Loveland and two full rounds behind McBride and Bowers in drafts. It’s still a significant price to pay for a tight end in fantasy, but Warren fits the mold of the rare few that still carry value at the cost.
Rank
3
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Washington Commanders
Average draft position:Undrafted
I’ve been on the Okonkwo breakout train for a couple years now and it has yet to leave the station. But let’s explore why that might be the case. The Titans were a bottom eight team in passing yards in each of Okonkwo’s four seasons in Tennessee and ranked dead last in passing touchdowns over that span (67 total). Their passing offense was also fourth-worst in success rate (39.4%) and EPA/dropback (-0.16) during that span, per Next Gen Stats. So, while Okonkwo flashed in a couple games the last few years, his environment has not been conducive to a legitimate TE1 season.
Now, Okonkwo has made his way to Washington to play with Jayden Daniels and new OC David Blough. We don’t have much foundational data for predicting Blough’s offense, but Okonkwo has spoken favorably of Blough’s plans, highlighting the intent to get him in space and weaponize his YAC ability. The Commanders signed him to a three-year, $27 million contract a couple months into Blough’s tenure, setting him up to be the clear receiving leader in the tight end room. And with few established wide receivers behind Terry McLaurin, there is a world where Okonkwo is the No. 2 option in the passing game. I predict he’ll be one of the top waiver wire pickups in early September. If you have the roster room, stash him at the end of your bench to beat the rush.
Rank
2
Tucker Kraft
Green Bay Packers
Average draft position:Rounds 9-10
Over the last two seasons, two tight ends are averaging more than 2.4 fantasy points per target: Kraft and George Kittle. Kraft finished as the fantasy TE10 in 2024 despite seeing just 70 targets and was the TE4 through Week 9 last year, when he suffered a torn ACL. He leads all tight ends in yards after catch over expected (268) since the start of the 2024 season, per Next Gen Stats, and has scored 13 touchdowns in just 25 games during that span. As you can see, he’s one of the most efficient fantasy tight ends.
The Packers parted with Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks this offseason, opening additional opportunities for Kraft, who has said he anticipates being ready to play come Week 1. If you take Kraft’s numbers since 2024 and project them to a full season with no boost in volume, he’d produce 56 catches for 813 yards and nine touchdowns, which would put him in play for a top-five finish at his position. With a small increase in targets, Kraft could easily break into the elite tier at tight end, but managers are landing him near the double-digit rounds in PPR fantasy drafts. This is an excellent example of buying the injury dip. Kraft has superstar upside at a shallow position and a bargain draft price.
Rank
1
Brock Bowers
Las Vegas Raiders
Average draft position:Rounds 2-3
Much like Josh Allen in my QB values post, it might seem absurd to include a top-tier player like Bowers in an article identifying fantasy draft values, but the Raiders’ TE1 absolutely belongs. He broke the rookie receptions record in 2024, with 112, and his 262.7 PPR fantasy points outpaced Sam LaPorta’s previous rookie tight end record by 23 points. Then last year, despite an early-season injury and abysmal quarterback play, Bowers was the TE2 in fantasy points per game
Entering 2026, the Raiders have their choice between Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza at quarterback – both of whom should be at least a little better than Geno Smith was for Vegas last season — and no true No. 1 WR. As long as he stays healthy, Bowers is positioned to see 150-plus targets (again) and challenge Trey McBride’s record for single-season receptions by a tight end (126). Bowers was the 19th overall pick in PPR ADP in last year’s drafts and has dropped four spots for no good reason this summer. I like Bowers over McBride — who’s going a few picks earlier on average — and believe he’ll offer the best positional advantage in fantasy outside of Allen. There’s a world where managers with the first or second overall pick in fantasy drafts could take their choice of the top RB or WR then double-tap Allen and Bowers at the Rounds 2-3 turn. If you pull it off, you can pre-order your championship trophy.
