5 questions Chipotle must answer to break out of its 2026 stock slump
Brian Sozzi· Executive Editor
Updated Mon, July 13, 2026 at 6:01 PM GMT+5:30
3 min read
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Chipotle (CMG) faces a series of questions heading into its July 29 earnings call that Wall Street wants answers to if the stock is to stop underperforming the S&P 500 (^GSPC) this year
Chipotle’s stock is down 4% year to date compared to a 10% gain for the S&P 500
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Quick insight: The fast-casual chain has a high hurdle to climb over to regain the confidence of the bulls after several disappointing quarters that have put the stock in the penalty box.
Citi analyst Jon Tower has several questions he would like to see clear evidence on when Chipotle reports. We think other analysts on the Street want similar clarity:
What is the effectiveness of limited-time offerings for driving traffic and check size?
With Chipotle’s new chief marketing officer on board as of June 1, when will consumers begin to see a shift in messaging?
How has Chipotle worked with third-party partners to enhance the brand’s value perception in this channel?
Will there be any updates on rewards and other digital initiatives?
Will Chipotle provide feedback on catering expansion in Boston, and how has growth progressed in Chicago?
The state of play: Chipotle delivered a mixed but better-than-expected first quarter after a challenging 2025, but it failed to reignite the bulls
Total revenue grew 7.4% to $3.1 billion, driven primarily by new restaurant openings and a 0.5% increase in same-store sales. Higher transaction volume of 0.6% was partially offset by a slight dip in average check size
The first quarter same-store sales result marked an improvement from the 2.5% drop in the fourth quarter and a 0.4% decline in the first quarter of last year
Management maintained a conservative full-year outlook, projecting that same-store sales will remain roughly flat in 2026. Second quarter same-store sales are expected to be up 1% amid solid demand trends in April
To spur growth, Chipotle has tested $2.50 tacos after rolling out high-protein snack cups in December
After debuting a well-received chimichurri dipping sauce in the quarter, Chipotle dropped a cilantro-lime sauce, and it is eyeing a bigger push into catering
“Evidence that these drivers are working, as well as incremental levers like a change in messaging and/or catering expansion, should build investor confidence in accelerating top and bottom-lines over the near-term which supports further multiple expansion,” Tower said
The bottom line:Chipotle may not serve up everything the bulls want to hear on this earnings report, considering the pressure on its customer base. This is something we saw with another tepid quarter from consumer foods giant PepsiCo (PEP) last week
