The Kremlin is desperately hoping that Trump’s return will bring an end to the war.

Russia’s sudden eagerness to engage with U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine comes as no surprise. The Kremlin is desperate for the conflict to conclude, as it has proven to be a catastrophic failure for Vladimir Putin on nearly every front.

While Russian state media revels in mocking Europe’s discomfort with the Trump administration’s stance on traditional U.S. allies, this is merely a distraction from the immense pressure Russia faces due to its disastrous military intervention.

Moscow’s propaganda machine has seized on Trump’s initial overtures, absurdly claiming that Washington now “aligns with our vision,” while another state-owned newspaper suggested Russia could benefit from Trump’s trade wars. Yet beneath the bravado, the Kremlin is pinning its hopes on Trump’s return to the White House as a way to end a war that has devastated the Russian military and inflicted severe economic damage.

Western estimates suggest that Russian casualties in Ukraine—killed and wounded—have reached 850,000, surpassing the total number of U.S. and British forces lost in Europe during World War II. Economically, the toll is just as severe, with interest rates soaring to a punishing 21% and Russia’s sovereign wealth fund rapidly depleting. These economic pressures help explain why Putin is so eager to engage with Trump’s peace initiatives.

A further sign of Russia’s desperation is its recent offer to mediate peace between Iran and the U.S. over Tehran’s nuclear program—an effort swiftly dismissed by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as “not rational, intelligent, or honorable.” This highlights Moscow’s diminishing leverage in global diplomacy, including in any negotiations on Ukraine.

Meanwhile, European leaders are taking steps to bolster their defense, with the European Commission proposing an €800 billion fund to enhance the continent’s military capabilities. Putin’s unprovoked invasion has already pushed previously neutral Finland and Sweden into NATO, strengthening the alliance’s northern defenses—exactly the opposite of what he had intended.

Adding to Putin’s concerns is the prospect of European troops, including those from the UK, being deployed to Ukraine to deter further Russian aggression.

This fear was evident in the Kremlin’s strong condemnation of French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent remarks, in which he reaffirmed that France and its European allies are prepared to send forces to Ukraine if necessary to uphold any future peace deal. Moscow dismissed this as “confrontational,” underscoring its anxiety over Western military involvement.

Far from negotiating from a position of strength, Putin enters any potential peace talks in a state of profound weakness—something the Trump administration must recognize as it considers its next steps.