SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 12th March 2025

Copper continues to edge higher on sustained dollar weakness and Comex premiums and tariff concerns

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN)  – Greenland votes for pro-independence and pro-US parties as 80 Mile Plc moves to 96.6% of White Flame Energy 100%

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Additional drilling results from the Boland rare-earths project in South Australia

First Tin (1SN LN) – Award of additional exploration licences with tin potential in New South Wales

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) – New drilling campaign underway at Mostaza

Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) – Results and dividend declaration

SolGold* (SOLG LN) – US$18m investment from Jiangxi Copper

Copper ($9,740/t) continues to edge higher on sustained dollar weakness and tariff concerns

Premiums for copper growing on COMEX drawing metal into the US and away from the rest of the world

• Copper prices have pushed higher again, rising back over $9,750/t with reduced copper output from Chile maybe helping prices higher.

• The metal has been edging higher since Trump ordered an investigation into America’s copper imports.
• As a result, metal has been rushed to US exchanges, with COMEX futures currently sitting at just under $1,000/t premiums to LME.
• Copper equities have failed to catch up with Freeport sitting at 12-month lows, alongside Teck, Ivanhoe Mines and Southern Copper.
• The market is currently looking for a 25% tariff imposition before the end of the year, following Trump’s Section 232 investigation.
• China cathode inventories continue to slide on weak imports despite slow buying by copper-rod producers according to SMN in peak construction season.
• Chinese smelters have been boosting exports to take advantage of higher international prices and weak domestic consumption.

• China is planning a substantial increase in grid capacity to better balance new wind and solar farms and enable better distribution of power.
• Chilean copper production is expected to remain broadly flat this year at around 5.5mt seen in 2024 and 5.25mt in 2023.
• Grid failure in Chile has been restored after 98.5% of the nation lost power. An example of cascade failure caused when local power failure triggers a chain reaction across the network.
• Peru copper production is expected to remain flat through 2025 at around 2.74mt.
• Zambia is looking to raise copper production to >1mt this year vs 821,000 in 2024 helped by the restoration of hydropower capacity following recent heavy rains.

Conclusion: Trump tariffs and physical premiums on Comex look likely to drag copper prices higher as physical metal flows towards the US.

Power grid upgrades look likely to drive new demand as networks encounter increasing potential for catastrophic power outages.

Ukraine – TechMet eyes Ukraine with Dobra Lithium Project, FT reports

• US-backed TechMet is eyeing a lithium project in Central Ukraine.
• TechMet states that the Ukraine-US minerals deal would ‘certainly enhance our interest and would create a framework that would justify doing more, bigger, quicker.’
• TechMet is in partnership with Lauder, a friend of Trump’s, in the Dobra lithium project.
• Dobra sits in the Kirovohrad region in Central Ukraine.
• It is primarily spodumene and petalite, and is reportedly grades 1.34% Li2O, with 1.2mt.

Greenland – Democratic party win election in surprise victory

• The centre-right Democratic party has won the election in Greenland mor than tripling its seats.
• The Democrats have replaced IA ‘Inuit Ataqatigiit’ as the largest party in the Greenlandic parliament.
• Naleraq, appear most open to US collaboration and support a referendum on independence almost doubled their seats to make it the second biggest party.
• The Democrats and Naleraq are likely to combine to form the new government. Both parties support Greenland independence and are likely to draw Greenland closer to the US.
• Both parties are seen as pro-business, pro-mining and pro-oil & gas project development.

Economics

US – 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports came into force today.

• The EU announced its own set of import charges in a clear retaliation to the US decision.
• New tariffs will include levies on products worth €8bn including such products as bourbon whiskey, jeans and Harley-Davidson motorcycles and are expected to come into effect on April 1 giving both sides time to potentially negotiate a deal.
• Additionally, the EU prepared levies on a further €18bn of US goods that would include cosmetics, clothes, shoes, fresh oranges, vapes and soyabeans and other agricultural products that are expected to come into force mid next month.
• President Trump backed down on doubling import tariffs for Canadian steel and aluminium to 50%.
• The decision came after Canada earlier in the day suspended its own 25% tariff on exports of power to the US>
• 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium imports have still gone into effect from today.
• Inflation is due later today with estimates for a slight slowdown in both headline (2.9 vs 3.0 Jan) and core measures (3.2 v 3.3 Jan).

Portugal – The government loses a confidence vote in parliament paving the way for a snap election in May.

• PM Montenegro, a president of the Social Democratic Party who led the Democratic Alliance, is planning to stand in the new elections and insists he has done nothing wrong.
• The latest poll on Tuesday showed that the opposition Socialist was ahead of AD since late last week and currently running at 30.8% vs 25.8%for AD. (FT)

Ukraine/US – Ukraine is ready to accept a US proposal for an immediate unconditional 30-day ceasefire following hours of discussions in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. (FT)

• In response, the US would immediately restore deliveries of weapons and resume sharing of intelligence with Ukraine.
• President Trump is expected to talk with President Putin later this week.
• The ceasefire is the first step in negotiations over “how to end this war permanently in a way that’s acceptable and enduring for both sides”, US Secretary of State Rubio said.
• The EU leadership said it “welcomed” ceasefire discussions outcomes.
• “The ball is now in Russia’s court,” European Commission Ursula von der Leyen a and European Council Antonio Costa said in a joint statement.

Currencies

US$1.0911/eur vs 1.0900/eur previous. Yen 148.38/$ vs 147.04/$. SAr 18.345/$ vs 18.255/$. $1.293/gbp vs $1.292/gbp. 0.629/aud vs 0.629/aud. CNY 7.244/$ vs 7.230/$

Dollar Index 103.576 vs 103.492 previous

Precious metals:         

Gold US$2,918/oz vs US$2,906/oz previous

Gold ETFs 86.2moz vs 86.1moz previous

Platinum US$988/oz vs US$965/oz previous

Palladium US$956/oz vs US$948/oz previous

Silver US$32.9/oz vs US$32.4/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,750/oz vs US$6,050/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,744/t vs US$9,566/t previous

Aluminium US$2,715/t vs US$2,697/t previous

Nickel US$16,645/t vs US$16,515/t previous

Zinc US$2,926/t vs US$2,868/t previous

Lead US$2,073/t vs US$2,044/t previous

Tin US$33,390/t vs US$32,690/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$69.9/bbl vs US$69.5/bbl previous

Henry Hub Gas US$4.31/mmBtu vs US$4.48/mmBtu yesterday

• Crude oil prices were stable as the EIA lowered its expectations for a crude supply surplus this year and the API estimated a 4.2mb/d w/w build to US crude inventories (+2.1mb/d exp).
• The EIA’s monthly short-term energy outlook expects decreasing crude oil production in Iran and Venezuela to reduce global supply growth to 1.4mb/d this year, which is more in line with forecast demand growth of 1.2mb/d. The Henry Hub price forecast increases by ~10% m/m due to higher consumption and lower gas inventories.
• European natural gas prices edged higher despite the Ukraine agreeing to a US proposal for a 30-day truce with Russia, as France’s nuclear generation fell 4% w/w to 73% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.
• Baker Hughes CEO reportedly said that US oil and gas producers are unlikely to increase spending in 2025, which will be restricted by the wave of consolidation and a potential reaction to the falling crude prices, with higher US shale output to primarily come from the improved efficiencies of modern rigs and completions.
• Also at CERA, Gunvor’s chairman said the commodity trader is looking to buy assets and that “If I were to pick one area where we want to add, it is US gas production. $4 natural gas is a good price for the right asset.”

Natural Gas €42.4/MWh vs €42.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $63.6/lb vs $63.8/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (China CFR) US$100.4/t vs US$100.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$484.4/t vs US$486.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$181.0/t vs US$181.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$110.2/t vs US$111.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$29,210/t vs US$27,750/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$61,295/t vs US$61,197/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,009/t vs US$10,027/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$815/t vs US$815/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$358/mtu vs US$353/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$4.8/lb vs US$4.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$300/t vs US$301/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,543/t vs US$1,543/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$337.5/t vs US$337.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$385.0/kg vs US$385.0/kg

Battery News

Toyota planning to build EVs in its existing European plants, including the UK

• Toyota has revealed it plans to build battery vehicles in the UK in the future and will seek to keep all of its European plants open.
• The Japanese automaker has been a leader in hybrid vehicle production and has remained more cautious to switch production to pure battery EVs.
• Recent EV sales have slowed globally, validating Toyota’s slow approach to the transition.
• Chief Corporate Officer at Toyota Motor Europe, Matt Harrison, said the company would try to retain its eight European factories but that it would make the move to electric production gradually “over the next decade”.
• Toyota currently makes the Corolla hatchback at its Burnaston plant in Derbyshire and has the goal of ultimately producing EVs there.
• On a trip to Japan last week, the UK business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, told Toyota and its smaller Japanese rival Nissan that the government would “do everything possible to ensure automotive manufacturing remains in the UK”, including loosening the ZEV mandate.

Northvolt files for bankruptcy in Sweden dealing a major blow for Europe’s battery hopes

• Europe’s auto sector had hoped that Northvolt would reduce carmakers’ reliance on Chinese rivals such as CATL and EV and BYD.
• Northvolt’s operations in North America and Germany are yet to file for bankruptcy and will wait for decisions made by the trustee.
• Industry leaders began acquiring assets from the battery maker following its filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US, with Volvo taking full ownership of NOVO Energy, a JV between the two companies.

 Company News

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 0.28p, Mkt cap £11m – Greenland votes for pro-independence and pro-US parties as 80 Mile Plc moves to 96.6% of White Flame Energy 100%

• Greenland has voted overwhelmingly for two new pro-development, pro-mining and pro-oil and gas parties who are expected to form a new government coalition.
• The two parties are more moderate in their tone and are likely to call to engage with the US to see what benefits can be negotiated.
• 80 Mile Plc as the only oil and gas licence holder in Greenland could well benefit from any pivot towards the US and is likely to see increased interest from the US.
• White Flame Energy 100% holds >8,000sq km’s of North Sea lookalike Hydrocarbon and industrial gas licences East Greenland.

• 80 Mile Plc report the issue of a further 11,246,910 shares for the completion of the new acquisition of White Flame Energy Limited.
• The total number of shares in 80 Mile plc is 3,935,570,185.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has visited Dundas in Greenland and the Hammaslahti and Enonkoski projects in Finland

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 1.03p, Mkt cap £7.8m – Additional drilling results from the Boland rare-earths project in South Australia

• Cobra Resources has announced highlights of the remaining results from its Phase 1 aircore drilling campaign at its Boland rare-earths project in South Australia.
• The announcement follows results from the first 20 holes of the programme, announced in February and among the higher-grade results includes:
  • An intersection of 6m at an average grade of 2,278ppm total rare earth oxides (TREO) from a depth of 54m in hole CBAC-0218; and
  • An intersection of 4m at an average grade of 1,696ppm TREO from a depth of 59m in hole CBAC-0207; and
  • An intersection of 9m at an average grade of 1,569ppm TREO from a depth of 58m in hole CBAC-0208; and
  • An intersection of 5m at an average grade of 1,582ppm TREO from a depth of 58m in hole CBAC-0209; and
  • An intersection of 9m at an average grade of 1,968ppm TREO from a depth of 57m in hole CBAC-0219; and
  • A single metre intersection at a grade of 2,598ppm TREO at a depth of 54m in hole CBAC-0226; and
  • An intersection of 6m at an average grade of 1,739ppm TREO from a depth of 48m in hole CBAC-0220.
• Commenting on the results, Managing Director, Rupert Verco, said that the Phase 1 drilling “has continued to deliver mineralisation over an extensive footprint that remains significantly untested … [which] … bodes well for defining a significant Mineral Resource Estimate later this year”.
• The company confirms that “Preparations are underway for sonic drilling this month, which will precisely investigate the mineralised interface, where higher grades within the ISR … [In-situ recovery] … recoverable zones are expected”.
• The latest results, as well as those reported in the earlier announcement, show that the majority of the intersections are from depths typically between 50-60m and the announcement confirms that the “key sedimentary target (Pidinga Formation) was consistently intersected throughout the palaeochannel in contact with REE enriched saprolite”.
• Mr. Verco also explained that the current metallurgical testing is “providing confidence in the cost and environmental profile of Boland via in situ recovery … [and said that]… Cobra may have one of the most desirable deposits outside of China”.

Conclusion: The drilling at Boland continues to intersect the targeted REE mineralisation at relatively shallow depth and we look forward to the mineral resources estimate which is expected to be available later this year.

First Tin (1SN LN) 5p, Mkt Cap £22m – Award of additional exploration licences with tin potential in New South Wales

• First Tin has been awarded additional exploration licences covering 195km² near its Taronga tin project in New South Wales taking the company’s total licences in the area to 752km².
• The company highlights specific “high priority targets” in the new licence areas including:

• • A zone of NE trending sheeted veins “over at least 15m width” at the Binghi (Long Spur) zone where sampling by the “Geological Survey of New South Wales … has returned assays of up to 1.9% Sn from surface grab samples and individual veins up to 0.3m wide”; and
  • An area of alluvial and hard rock tin workings at the Dingo Creek area; and
  • “Extensions of the Butlers Lodes, one of the larger historical hard rock tin producers”; and
  • An area of “significant historical alluvial tin … [production] … with over 1,000t past production of tin concentrates” in the Back Creek, Ford Hill and Catarrh Creek prospects; and
  • The ‘Stannum Extensions’ area which is described as one of the “higher priority targets”; as well as
  • “Several hard rock and alluvial workings … in the … Romneys] … area … [where] … little modern exploration has been undertaken to date”.

• CEO, Bill Scotting, explained the acquisition of the new licences in the context of First Tin’s “Hub and Spoke strategy, reinforcing Taronga’s potential as a future central processing facility”.
• He confirmed the company’s focus “on bringing Taronga into production … [and said that the] … addition of these two tenements to our portfolio enhances our ability to identify and develop additional sources of tin within the district”.

Conclusion: First Tin has secured additional exploration licences near its Taronga tin project as part of its plan to identify additional satellite mineralisation to provide potential feed for its central processing plant.

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) 3.6p, Mkt Cap £21m – New drilling campaign underway at Mostaza

• Yesterday, Great Southern Copper reported the start of its second phase of drilling at the historic Mostaza mine located in its Cerro Negro copper/gold/silver target within its Especularita project.
• The drilling aims to extend the depth and strike extent of mineralisation located in hole CNG25-DD001 which intersected 20m of mineralisation averaging 3.31% copper and 270g/t silver from a depth of 27m and “allow progression to a new JORC resource estimate”.
• The plans for the Phase 2 campaign include 1,000-1,500m with a possibility of further drilling if justified by results.
• In addition to extending the mineralised footprint, the drilling aims to provide data for “metallurgy and geotechnical studies”.
• CEO, Sam Garrett, said that the new drilling “represents a significant escalation of activity at Cerro Negro and aims to take maximum advantage of the Phase I drilling permit process which allowed for drilling to April of this year. Preparations to extend the drilling time-frame are also in progress”.

Conclusion: The latest phase of drilling at Cerro Negro aims to extend the mineralisation at the old Mostaza mine and progress the resource estimation as well as providing geotechnical and metallurgical information. We await the results from the remaining holes of the previous, Phase 1 drilling and results from the new campaign with interest.

Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) 220p, Mkt Cap £1.2bn – Results and dividend declaration

• Hochschild reports 2024 financial results, recording revenue of $948m, EBITDA of $421m.
• Cash position at $97m vs $89m 2023.
• Net debt at $216m vs $258m 2023.
• Company has proposed a final dividend of 1.94c/share ($10m) and introduces a dividend policy of 20-30% attributable free cash flow.
• Hochschild’s dividend will be subject to a net debt/adj.EBITDA ratio below 1.5x, currently sitting c.0.51x.
• Company produced 347.3koz in 2024 at an AISC of $1,638/oz.
• 2025 guidance for 350-378koz at $1,587-1,687/oz AISC.
• SUSEX budget of $169-180m and brownfield exploration budget of $36m.
• Hocschild highlights positive exploration programmes over 2024, adding 2.8m GEO over 2024, predominantly at Immaculada and Royropata.
• The $60m acquisition of Monte Do Carmo in Brazil was completed over 2024, with $45m paid.
• Fully permitted Monte do Carmo holds 1,012koz in M&I resource, and the Company is planning a 10,000m drilling programme and expects to report updated economics by end of 2025.

SolGold* (SOLG LN) 7.11p, Mkt Cap £183m – US$18m investment from Jiangxi Copper

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1. Solgold reports that Jiangxi Copper is increasing its investment from 6.95% to 12.19% via the US$18m purchase of ~157m additional share at a price of US$0.115/share.
2. As well as Jiangxi Copper, Solgold’s 2024 Annual Report for the year to 30^th June 2024 lists other major mining industry shareholders including Billiton with 10.36% and Newcrest (acquired by Newmont in 2023) with 10.31%.
3. The announcement explains that the shares “were acquired … [as part of the] … the acquisition of Cornerstone Capital Resources … [in] … February 2023. Therefore, no new shares of SolGold have been issued in connection with the Investment and the Company’s total issued share capital remains unchanged”.
4. The announcement explains that “Until March 2027, Jiangxi may provide SolGold with technical consulting services as required, subject to mutual agreement, with respect to the Company’s world-class Cascabel Project in Ecuador. Jiangxi will not charge the Company, unless otherwise agreed by the parties, for any of its costs associated with this technical cooperation”.
5. CEO, Dan Vujcic, explained that the “investment by Jiangxi, at a substantial premium to Monday’s closing price, is a powerful endorsement towards the intrinsic value embedded in SolGold”.
6. Commenting that the increased investment by Jiangxi Copper will strengthen Solgold’s balance sheet Mr. Vujcic said that “SolGold is very fortunate to have multiple high-quality shareholders and financiers who are willing and able to assist the Company in progressing Cascabel and its highly prospective exploration portfolio”.

Conclusion: An increased shareholding by Jiangxi Copper, which may now also provide technical advice to the Cascabel project, provides Solgold with three major mining industry shareholders.

*SP Angel acts as broker to Solgold

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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