SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 6th May 2025

Gold makes strong gains as Chinese buyers return from holiday

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – Court rules in Greenswitch favour in ownership dispute over the Ferrandia biofules and ESO plant in Italy

Anglo American (AAL LN) – Update on Australian steelmaking coal mine sale to Peabody for US$2.05bn + US$725m in deferred cash and potential $550m earnout

Anglo American (AAL LN) – Peabody considers terminating agreement to buy Anglo’s steelmaking coal assets

AngloGold Ashanti (AU US) – Agrees to pause JV Gold Fields to combine Ghanaian gold mines

Gold Fields (GFI SA) – A$3.7bn acquisition of Gold Road

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – Country Membership lender approval update

Landore Resources (LND LN) – Completion of BAM Drilling Programme

Lundin Mining (LUN CN) – Initial Mineral Resource delivered for Filo del Sol following acquisition

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN)– Director purchases shares

Turaco Gold (TCG AU) – Resource growth to 3.6moz Au in the Côte d’Ivoire

ZCCM (ZCC LN) Suspended – EPS expected to rise by 1138% from Mopani consolidation. Accounts delay causes share suspension.

Gold ($3,378/oz) rallies as Chinese buyers return from holiday

• Gold has recovered from its weakness last week, bouncing nearly 3% yesterday as Chinese buyers returned from their May Day holiday.
• Bloomberg reports the Shanghai Gold Exchange is planning to boost its warehouse network to Hong Kong, operated by the Bank of China.
• The move is intended to promote yuan-denominated gold benchmarking as Beijing looks to exert more control over commodity pricing.
• The Shanghai gold exchange has seen record volumes in recent quarters as Chinese retail saw heavy buying.
• China-US tensions persist, despite a recent thawing as Trump hinted at rolling back some more punitive measures.
• The dollar climbed yesterday, on higher US Treasury yields and positive US services data.
• Focus shifts to the Fed meeting this week, where policymakers are expected to hold rates steady.

Copper ($9,422/t) extends gains as Trump suggests trade deals imminent

• Copper has continued to rally, bouncing again as Chinese buyers returned from holiday.
• Trump suggested over the weekend that there may be trade deals announced this week, increasing optimism over global growth forecasts.
• Escalating recession calls have weighed on copper and other base metals, and trade deal announcements may calm these concerns.
• Iron ore is also ticking higher, suggesting wider positive sentiment for global construction demand.
• Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports China copper smelters are being hit by scrap import tariffs, with the US supplying 20% of China’s copper scrap.
• Copper is being diverted back to the US owing to China’s imposition of 34% scrap tariffs.

The World flat pack championship was won by Hayey McAuley from Wigan who made a bedside table in 9 mins and 33 seconds

• We challenge anyone to beat that. Ms McAuley claims she won because men never read the instructions.

Economics

US – Labour numbers released last Friday beat estimates seeing S&P closing 1.5% higher on the day and policy sensitive two-year rates adding more than 10bp.

• Unemployment rate held flat at 4.2% with labour earnings coming in slightly lower than expected, albeit, still elevated levels compared to historical readings.
• Prior two months of NFPs readings were revised lower by 58k taking dialling back some optimism regarding the state of the labour market.
• Markets will be watching next series of labour data carefully for consequences of President Trump led tariffs on the local economy.
• 2-day FOMC policy meeting starts today with expectations for the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50%.
• Markets expectations remain for the rate cut in July and further two later in the year  for a total of three in 2025.
• NFPs (Apr/Mar/Est): 177k/185k(revised from 228k)/138k
• Unemployment Rate (Apr/Mar/Est): 4.2%/4.2%/4.2%
• Av Hourly Earnings (%mom, Apr/Mar/Est): 0.2%/0.3%/0.3%
• Av Hourly Earnings (%yoy, Apr/Mar/Est): 3.8%/3.8%/3.9%

China – Private business activity surveys showed a sharper than expected slowdown in growth in April as the economy battles with weak consumer sentiment and tariff stricken export sectors.

• That was the lowest Services PMI reading in seven months.
• Coupled with slowing growth in the manufacturing sector that barely expanded in April, Composite PMI is now at its lowest since September last year.
• Caixin Services PMI (Apr/Mar/Est): 50.7/51.9/51.8
• Caixin Composite PMI (Apr/Mar/Est): 51.1/51.8/NA

EU – The bloc is considering banning Russian gas imports by the end of 2027.

• A ban on all purchases under new deals with Russia and existing spot contracts, that account for around a third of imports, is expected to be proposed in June and take effect before the end of the year.
• Banning long term contracts for the remaining imports of Russian pipeline and LNG gas will take longer to transition and expected to come into force until the end of 2027.
• The EU purchased a total of €23bn in Russian energy in 2024, more than military assistance provided to Ukraine that year, accounting for 19% of the bloc’s total gas purchases.

France

• Industrial Production (Mar/Feb/Est): 0.2/-0.3(revised from -0.4)/-0.2

Italy

• Services PMI (Apr/Mat/Est): 52.9/52.0/51.9
• Composite PMI (Apr/Mat/Est): 52.1/50.5/50.2

Spain

• Services PMI (Apr/Mat/Est): 53.4/54.7/54.0
• Composite PMI (Apr/Mat/Est): 52.5/54.0/53.0

Currencies

US$1.1326/eur vs 1.1325/eur previous. Yen 143.67/$ vs 145.21/$. SAr 18.263/$ vs 18.442/$. $1.331/gbp vs $1.331/gbp. 0.646/aud vs         0.642/aud. CNY 7.212/$ vs 7.271/$.

Dollar Index 99.712 vs 99.943 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,366/oz vs US$3,262/oz previous

Gold ETFs 88.8moz vs 89.0moz previous

Platinum US$978/oz vs US$972/oz previous

Palladium US$950/oz vs US$955/oz previous

Silver US$33.1/oz vs US$32.6/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,375/oz vs US$5,375/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,441/t vs US$9,362/t previous

Aluminium US$2,438/t vs US$2,438/t previous

Nickel US$15,630/t vs US$15,265/t previous

Zinc US$2,644/t vs US$2,620/t previous

Lead US$1,937/t vs US$1,965/t previous

Tin US$31,750/t vs US$30,225/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$61.5/bbl vs US$62.2/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices have stabilised at lower levels after the eight OPEC+ nations decided on Saturday to raise output by 411kb/d in June, which accelerates the return of the 2.2mb/d in voluntary cuts introduced in 2022.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count was down 3 to 584 units last week (-21 or 3% y/y), with oil rigs down 4 to 479 units (-20 y/y) and gas rigs up 2 to 101 units (-1 y/y), as Texas (271) and Ohio (9) each lost 3 rigs w/w.
• US Henry Hub natural gas prices stabilised after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected 107bcf w/w build to 2,041bcf, with storage inventories now 17.6% below last year but 0.2% above the 5-year average.

Natural Gas €33.3/MWh vs €32.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $69.8/lb vs $68.9/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (China CFR) US$99.8/t vs US$99.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$468.2/t vs US$465.1/t

Hard Coking Coal ‘HCC’ FOB Australia US$187.0/t vs US$187.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$102.0/t vs US$101.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$56,992/t vs US$56,524/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,013/t vs US$9,036/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$775/t vs US$785/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$363/mtu vs US$363/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.3/kg vs US$24.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$288/t vs US$285/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,513/t vs US$1,513/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$355.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Battery News

Ford claims Trump tariffs will cost automaker $2.5bn and disrupt automotive supply chains

• Ford has warned of “substantial” risks and disruption to the automotive supply chain due to Donald Trump’s tariffs.
• The automaker has suspended its market guidance for 2025 due to the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs.
• Ford said it expects the tariffs to cost it at least $2.5bn over 2025, with it able to offset $1.0bn through various measures.
• Trump has repeatedly insisted that his tariffs will restore American domestic manufacturing, by incentivising companies to import fewer parts or vehicles.

Volvo sales slump in April as EV sales plummet

• Volvo saw shares drop 11% yoy in April, with EV sales seeing a worrying 32% decline.
• The slump comes as Volvo is grappling with multiple challenges, including the effects of US auto tariffs.
• Volvo is majority-owned by Chinese company Geely, with China most heavily impacted by the tariffs.
• Volvo is also facing increasing competition, particularly in China, with local automakers offering more affordable EVs.

CATL seeking $1bn loan for Indonesian battery plant expansion

• Battery maker CATL is looking for a $1bn for its JV with Indonesia Battery Corp.
• The joint venture plans to build a battery cell plant with an annual capacity of 15GWh, in Karawang, West Java.
• CATL has 13 battery production sites globally, according to its prospectus filed for listing in Hong Kong, including its plant in Germany that has achieved mass production of li-ion batteries and one in Hungary that is under construction.

Company News

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 0.27p, Mkt cap £11m – Court rules in Greenswitch favour in ownership dispute over the Ferrandia biofules and ESO plant in Italy

• 80 Mile Plc report on a civil damages and ownership dispute between Greenswitch, a subsidiary of Hydrogen Valley and Digitile.
• 80 Mile has an option to acquire up to a 100% interest in Hydrogen Valley and has already acquired 24% of Hydrogen Valley.
• 80 Mile now expects to announce a time extension to its option to acquire more of Hydrogen Valley due to the finalisation of all outstanding legal disputes.
• The Italian Court of Bari has ruled on and dismissed claims made by Digitile against Greenswitch, regarding a private agreement dated 2015.
  • “The Court rejected Digitile’s claims for more than €12 million in damages and ownership of the plant, after finding insufficient evidence to prove the 2015 agreement’s authenticity or its formation on the stated date.
  • This closes the outstanding litigation for Greenswitch and as such the Company now expects to continue with its staged acquisition.”
  • “The Court dismissed Digitile’s claims, denied Greenswitch’s request for damages due to frivolous litigation (lacking proof of bad faith), and ordered Digitile to pay Greenswitch’s legal costs, amounting to €33,685 plus additional fees and taxes, as per the applicable legal fee regulations.”
• The RNS statement contains further details on the court case.

Conclusion: We hope the ruling of the Court of Bari in Italy will end the claims by Digitile and reduce any further delays to 80 Miles’s plans to take full control of the biofuels and epoxidized soybean oil project at the Ferrandina Plant in Italy.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has visited Dundas in Greenland.

Anglo American (AAL LN) 2,034p, Mkt Cap £27bn – Peabody considers terminating agreement to buy Anglo’s steelmaking coal assets

• Anglo American has issued a response to Peabody Energy, who are currently set to buy their steelmaking coal business.
• Peabody announced yesterday it has notified AAL of a ‘Material Adverse Change’ impacting their acquisition, relating to the Moranbah North Mine.
• Peabody notes a gas ignition event on March 31.
• Peabody management stated that ‘the issues at Moranbah North have created significant uncertainty around the transaction… {and} a substantial share of the acquisition value was associated with Moranbah North.’
• They then stated that if the MAC is not resolved to Peabody’s satisfaction, Peabody may elect to terminate the agreement.
• However, Anglo American has stated that it ‘does not believe that the stoppage at Moranbah North constitutes a Material Adverse Change.’
• Anglo ‘expects to continue working with Peabody towards addressing its concerns and satisfying the remaining customary conditions in those agreements that are required for completion of the Transaction.’
• Anglo Q1 Steelmaking coal production fell by 41% to 2.2mt primarily due to the suspension of mining at the Grosvenor longwall operation following the underground fire in June 2024 and the sale of a minority interest in Jellinbah which completed in January 2025.
• Anglo expects the sale of its steelmaking coal operations in Australia to Peabody Energy to complete by Q3.
• Coking coal prices have fallen by 22% over the past six months to ~CNY1,290/t from CNY1,650/t for 10.5%max, S 0.8%max EXW Shanxi port.
• Thermal coal prices have also fallen 21% to CNY680/t from CNY855/t for Q5500 In port Qinhuangdao.

AngloGold Ashanti (AU US) $42, Mkt Cap $21bn – Agrees to pause JV Gold Fields to combine Ghanaian gold mines

• AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields have agreed to pause discussions over a JV to combine the Iduapriem and Tarkwa gold mines.
• Iduapriem sits south of Tarkwa and produced 237koz Au in 2024, with mineral reserves of 1.8moz and AISC of $1,614/oz.
• Gold Fields noted in their annual report that they were yet to receive the requisite approvals by the government to combine the two assets into a single entity.
• Tarkwa produced 537koz in 2024 at AISC of $1,629/oz.
• AngloGold noted that they have ‘spent much of the intervening time in a constructive dialogue with the Government of Ghana to obtain the necessary approvals.’
• However, the Company has since ‘identified changes in its standalone mine plan for Iduapriem.’

Gold Fields (GFI SA) ZAR42,026, Mkt Cap ZAR373bn – A$3.7bn acquisition of Gold Road

• South African miner Gold Fields has entered into a binding agreement to acquire Gold Road.
• Gold Fields are paying A$3.4/Gold Road share split between A$2.52 in cash and a cash portion equal to the value of the Gold Road share in Northern Star (c.A$0.88/share as of 2^nd May)
• A special dividend is also guided (A$0.35/share based on the franking account balance at 2^nd May)
• The offer represents a 43% premium to the undisturbed price on 21^st March 2025, before the first offer from Gold Fields.
• The two gold producers were in JV at Gruyere, and Gold Road holds a portfolio of exploration licences within the wider Yamarna Greenstone Belt.
• Gruyere processed 8.8mt of ore, producing 287koz Au and reserves of 1.7moz and Measured, Indicated and Inferred resources of 735koz.
• Gold Road had been focusing on the Gilmour deposit, to extend the life of the Gruyere asset.
• Gold Fields also reported 551koz Au production at AISC of US$1,625/oz for 1Q25.

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 0.68p, Mkt Cap £54m – Country Membership lender approval update

• The Company reported that the Ethiopian Council of Ministers has formally approved Ethiopian Country Membership for Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).
• The approval will now need to be confirmed by the Ethiopian Parliament.
• Country is a critical condition for AFC’s participation in the project funding package for the Tulu Kapi Gold Project, Ethiopia.
• The second major lender, the Eastern and Southern African Trade and Development Bank (TDB), does already have Ethiopian Country membership.
• Both lenders account for $240m of the development project capital cost of $320m.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Landore Resources (LND LN) 3.9p, Mkt Cap £13m – Completion of BAM Drilling Programme

• Landore Resources has completed its BAM drilling programme, consisting of 14 holes over 3,549m.
• The programme was intended to target the eastern portion of the deposit, boosting the Inferred Resource to Indicated.
• Additionally, drilling was intended to test high-grade potential down-dip within the central portion of the eastern pit area.
• Additionally, drilling to the west was conducted to test shallow and deep mineralised zones.
• Company expects assay results in the coming weeks, and will use them, alongside the recent structural assessment, to update the MRE in 3Q25.
• The 2022 MRE suggested 49mt at 1g/t Au for 1.5moz using a 0.3g/t COG.
• The previous PEA suggested an 11 year LOM, producing 815koz Au from a 2.2mtpa plant, with construction CAPEX estimated at US$85m, AISC estimated at $1,200/oz and NPV5 estimated at US$231m using $1,800/oz.

Conclusion: Landore’s new management is approaching the BAM project methodically and efficiently, completing a targeted drilling programme to support a mineral resource update later this year. Management notes the are ‘confident will serve to provide an uplift to our existing resource.’

Lundin Mining (LUN CN) C$11.5, Mkt Cap C$10bn – Initial Mineral Resource delivered for Filo del Sol following acquisition

• Lundin Mining, who are in JV with BHP at the Vicuna project in Agentina, report a maiden Mineral Resource for the combined project.
• The Vicuna District Resource, which includes Josemaria, currently stands at:
  • M&I: 3,638mt at 0.35% Cu, 0.27g/t Au and 5.6g/t Ag for 12.8mt Cu, 32.2moz Au and 659moz Ag.
  • Inferred: 7,895mt at 0.32% Cu, 0.19g/t Au, 3.2g/t Ag for 25mt Cu, 48.7moz Au and 808mz Ag.
• The Company highlights a high-grade core at Filo del Sol and Josemaria, with Filo’s high-grade zone holding:
  • M&I: 606mt at 1.14% CuEq for 4.5mt cu, 9.6moz Au and 259moz Ag. (0.75% CuEq cut off)
• The Filo del Sol heap leach oxide cap holds:
  • M&I: 0.34% Cu, 0.28gt Au, 2.5g/t Ag for 1.5mt, 3.9moz Au and 35moz Ag.
• Company notes that the Filo del Sol drilling has bottomed in mineralisation and is open at depth, and the Flamenco zone, 2km to the south, has intercepted mineralisation beyond the limits of the current resource pit shell.
• Lundin management notes the potential for staged expansion at the mining complex.

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 12p, Mkt Cap £40m – Director purchase shares

• Orosur’s NED has purchased shares in the open market.
• Nick Von Shirnding has purchased 184k shares at 10.9p.

Conclusion: It is encouraging to see Orosur’s management buying shares in the market ahead of an exciting, expanded drilling programme at Pepas. We are particularly excited about the North Pepas zone, where extensive gold mineralisation has now been identified in channel sampling, both over wide intervals and at high grades. Drilling looms, and we look forward with interest to initial assay results.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Turaco Gold (TCG AU) A$0.45, Mkt Cap A$407m – Resource growth to 3.6moz Au in the Côte d’Ivoire

• Turaco Gold reports an updated JORC MRE for their Afema Project in southeastern Côte d’Ivoire.
• The Company reports a total of 90.8mt at 1.2g/t Au for 3.55moz. using a 0.5g/t Au cut-off grade within constrained open pit shells.
• This is split between Woulo Woulo, containing 50.9mt at 1g/t Au for 1.6moz, Jonction (9.1mt at 2.1gt Au for 610koz, Anuiri (9.7mt at 1.7g/t Au for 520koz) and Asupiri (21.1mt at 1.2g/t Au for 820koz).
• Recent met results showed gold recoveries of 90.3% at Jonction, 84.4% at Anuiri, 87.6% at Asupiri and 90.2% at Woulo Woulo using conventional grinding and leaching.
• As a result of the met results, Jonction recoveries boosted from 76%-85% to 84-90%.
• The three smaller deposits likely require ultra-fine grinding and leaching.
• Turaco notes that the deposits all remain open, with extensional drilling being conducted at Asupiri and Anuiri currently.
• Drilling is also being conducted at Woulo Woulo to test for potential high-grade shoots.
• Management believes they can ‘deliver further resource growth in the short term and will continue with the multi-rig drilling programme.’
• The Company expects to now begin a PFS, targeting a 5-6mtpa development due for 1HCY26.
• The ESIA has commenced, due for submission 2026-end.

ZCCM (ZCC LN) Suspended – EPS expected to rise by 1138% from Mopani consolidation. Accounts delay causes share suspension.

• ZCCM reports a substantial increase of 1,138% in EPS for 2024 vs 2023.
• Net profit rose to ZMW 42.30bn (US$1.62bn) for the year vs a loss of ZMW 4.08 bn (US$199m) in 2023.
• The rise in earnings is primarily attributed to the Mopani Strategic Equity Partner transaction.
• The transaction enabled the settlement of ZMW 44.72bn (US$1.71bn) of debt with Glencore/Carlisa through the amendment, restatement, and consolidation agreement.
• This resulted in a one-off gain of ZMW 35.92bn (US$1.41bn) and reclassified Mopani from a subsidiary to an associate, significantly boosting group earnings.
• ZCCM shares were temporarily suspended from trading on the LSE due to challenges in consolidating the accounts due to delayed completion of audits for certain key investee companies.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2025

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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