SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 10th February 2025

Gold hits $2,900/oz as global trade war risks escalate

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Altona Rare Earths – (REE LN) – Fluorspar assay results from Mozambique

Artemis Resources (ARV LN) – Start of Pilbara drilling campaign

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) – Resumption of mineral trading in Rwanda

Katoro Gold (KAT LN) – Expansion of Ontario exploration portfolio

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, 18.1p – Temporary land access claims

Gold – A pilot programme allowing 10 insurance firms to invest up to 1% of their holdings in gold equivalent to a CNY 200bn or $27bn in new demand.

• The policy potentially signals that Chinese authorities recognise gold as an investment alternative as property sector struggles., Bloomberg reports.
• This marks the first commodity that Chinese insurers have been explicitly permitted to invest in.

Lithium – CATL is resuming operations at the lithium lepidolite mine in Jiangxi province four months after suspending it.

• The mine in the southern province was a major contributor to supply growth in China and reports of its suspension in September led to a rally in lithium stocks.
• Reuters cites the UBS report that suggested reopening of the mine is an indication of low inventories while CATL is managing to reduce operating costs of a lower grade material by blending in better quality feed.

Economics

US – President Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the US.

• Additionally, Trump administration will be looking to announce reciprocal tariffs later this week targeting imports from a wide range of countries that tax US exports.
• Canada, China and Mexico accounted for ~$52bn or nearly 50% of all steel and aluminium imports into the US.
• Following top three exporters are South Korea, Brazil and Germany.
• Jerome Powell is to hold its semiannual address to the Congress over Tuesday and Wednesday.
• The Fed held rates unchanged at the last meeting in a unanimous decision in January.
• Markets are pricing in 1-2 cuts this year with the first one not until September.

China – Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs on $14bn worth of goods from the US in a sign of an escalating trade conflict.

• The decision came in response to a US decision to impose an additional 10% import tax on Chinese goods.
• Chinese levies relate to exports of LNG, crude oil and farm equipment as well as some automotive goods with the rate of 10-15%.
• Consumer inflation picked up in January, a welcome development for authorities concerned with elevated risks of a potential deflation.
• CPI (%yoy, Jan/Dec/Est): 0.5/0.1/0.4
• PPI (%yoy, Jan/Dec/Est): -2.3/-2.3/-2.2

France – President Macron is set to announce €109bn in investment in AI projects by companies, funds and other sources over the coming years.

• Plans are aimed at avoiding falling behind other major countries accelerating their AI related projects.
• President Trump previously announced a $500bn AI infrastructure investment programme to be carried over the next four years.
• “The first battle for Europeans is to invest, invest, invest,” President Macron said.
• “If we regulate before we innovate, we won’t have any innovation and people will say, ‘We have great regulation in Europe, but we don’t have a single player.’”

Israel – An Israeli delegation arrived in Qatar on Sunday for the next phase of truce talks.

• The first 42-day phase of the ceasefire led by Washington, Cairo and Doha, has largely held since it came into effect January 19.
• 16 Israeli and fie Thai hostages have been released so far with 583 Palestinian detainees freed.
• Under the ceasefire deal, 33 Israeli children, women and sick, wounded and older men are to be released in exchange for almost 2,000 Palestinians.

Currencies

US$1.0319/eur vs 1.0405/eur previous. Yen 152.38/$ vs 153.01/$. SAr 18.490/$ vs 18.619/$. $1.240/gbp vs $1.250/gbp. 0.627/aud vs 0.628/aud. CNY 7.308/$ vs 7.273/$.

Dollar Index 108.311 vs 107.754 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$2,898/oz vs US$2,852/oz previous

Gold ETFs 83.6moz vs 83.5moz previous

Platinum US$989/oz vs US$991/oz previous

Palladium US$974/oz vs US$980/oz previous

Silver US$32.2/oz vs US$32.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,625/oz vs US$4,625/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,417/t vs US$9,277/t previous

Aluminium US$2,640/t vs US$2,619/t previous

Nickel US$15,755/t vs US$15,811/t previous

Zinc US$2,840/t vs US$2,818/t previous

Lead US$1,993/t vs US$1,989/t previous

Tin US$31,200/t vs US$31,002/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$75.1/bbl vs US$74.3/bbl previous

• European energy prices hit a 2-year high as storage inventories dropped below 50% on the back of freezing temperatures across northern Europe and low wind speeds.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count was up 4 to 586 units last week (-37 or 6% y/y), with oil rigs up 1 to 480 units (-21 y/y) and gas rigs up 2 to 100 units (-19 y/y), as the Haynesville Fm. added 2 rigs to 30 units (-12 y/y).

Natural Gas €58.5/MWh vs €54.3/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $69.4/lb vs $69.9/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$107.4/t vs US$106.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$484.6/t vs US$485.7/t

HCC FOB Australia US$188.0/t vs US$187.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$110.5/t vs US$112.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$21,550/t vs US$21,550/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$58,157/t vs US$57,541/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,989/t vs US$9,989/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$815/t vs US$815/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$338/mtu vs US$338/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$4.6/lb vs US$4.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.8/kg vs US$24.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$294/t vs US$293/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,588/t vs US$1,588/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$315.0/t vs US$305.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,725.0/kg vs US$2,725.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$385.0/kg vs US$385.0/kg

Battery News

Company News

Altona Rare Earths – (REE LN) 1.38p, mkt cap £2.2m – Fluorspar assay results from Mozambique

• Altona Mining reports assay results from crushed ore samples of fluorspar at its Monte Muambe rare earths bearing carbonatite project in northwest Mozambique.
• Results from a 300kg sample of the Monte Muambe Fluorite Zone averaged 88.03% CaF₂ (3 samples) exceeded “management’s expectations … [and also exceed] … the typical range for metallurgical grade fluorspar (60 to 85%)”.
• The assay results “indicated the presence of, on average: 6.16% Fe₂O₃, 0.97% SiO₂, 0.49% Al₂O₃, 1.08% P₂O₅, 1.62% SrO, and less than 0.36% CaCO₃”.
• The project, which hosts “a maiden JORC Mineral Resource Estimate of 13.6 million tons at 2.42% TREO” (Total Rare Earth Oxide) is currently the subject of a pre-feasibility study building on the October 2023 Scoping Study.
• CEO, Cedric Simonet, said that “With the fluorspar production scoping study in progress, and the Mining Licence in place, we are getting closer to our objective of producing 15,000 to 20,000 tons of fluorspar per year from Monte Muambe’s Fluorite Zone in the short term”.

Conclusion: Assay results from Altona Mining’s Monte Muambe rare earths project in Mozambique show fluorspar grades consistent with metallurgical grade products We await further news as further testing and scoping/pre-feasibility work proceeds.

Artemis Resources (ARV LN) 0.45p, Mkt Cap 9.4m – Start of Pilbara drilling campaign

Artemis Resources reports the start of its latest programme of reverse-circulation and diamond-drilling aimed at investigating targets within a 4km long zone around its Carlow resource which hosts “374,000oz gold and 64,000t copper and remains open beyond previous drilling”.

Diamond drilling will investigate the “the source of the large Marillion electro-magnetic (“EM”) conductor located 500m east of the Carlow resource and will also test the potential for significant extensions to the Carlow resource down plunge from previous high-grade gold intersections”.

Reverse-circulation drilling will target the Titan Prospect located 2KM NW of the Carlow resource “in an area of interpreted structural complexity considered favourable for gold mineralisation”.

The company explains that the campaign will focus on previously undrilled targets.

Conclusion: We await news from Artemis Resources’ new drilling in the Pilbara area, WA.

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) 54p, Mkt Cap £6.5m – Resumption of mineral trading in Rwanda

(Rio Tinto jv has the option to invest US$7.5m in two stages to earn up to 75% in the HCK lithium and tantalum hard rock prospect in Rwanda)

(Rwanda: Aterian holds an effective 100% stake in the Musasa Mining Licenses plus a 70% interest in Kinunga Mining Limited which holds the HCK licence alongside HCK Mining Company Limited which has a 30% interest.)

(Botswana: Aterian also holds a 90% in Atlantis Metals which holds its licenses in Botswana). (Morocco: Aterian holds 100% on all licenses held in Morocco)

• Aterian reports that it has restarted mineral trading in Rwanda following a temporary suspension pending implementation of the Inkomane trading system by Rwanda’s Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board (RMB).
• The company’s wholly owned subsidiary, Eastinco, is described as “a fully registered participant in the Inkomane platform … [which is] … committed to upholding the highest standards of regulatory compliance, transparency, and ethical sourcing in the mineral supply chain”.
• Today’s announcement also confirms that Aterian “is in final negotiations with an international trading house to provide a new trade finance facility and logistical support for the trading operations with the intent to significantly increase volumes”.
• Welcoming the resumption of its Rwandan mineral trading, Chairman, Charles Bray, said that “Eastinco is positioned to capitalise on renewed market opportunities while reinforcing its role as a trusted partner in Rwanda’s mineral sector”.

Conclusion: New mineral trading arrangements in Rwanda provide an opportunity for Aterian to expand a transparent mineral trading business via subsidiary Eastinco.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc

Katoro Gold (KAT LN) 0.05p, Mkt Cap £0.8m – Expansion of Ontario exploration portfolio

• Katoro Gold reports heads-of-terms for the acquisition of 31 Explore Limited which holds mineral claims in Ontario prospective for lithium-bearing pegmatites and rare-earth elements.
• 31 Explore’s property portfolio “is underpinned by the systematic evaluation of an extensive range of Ontario Geological Survey data and mapping and other sources … [as well as historic exploration which] …. provides other encouraging information, however… [today’s announcement explains] … that these areas are historically underexplored for the critical mineral deposits”.
• The acquisition via 375m ‘Acquisition Warrants’ is priced at 0.1p and the announcement confirms that “Mr Sean Wade, the Company’s Non-Executive Chairman, is a 14.29% beneficial owner of 31 Explore Ltd and, as such, the acquisition is considered to be a Related Party Transaction”.
• Today’s announcement also reports a £317,500 conditional equity financing to advance the exploration of the new properties as well as “the Company’s existing White Pine Uranium Project in Northwest Ontario”.
• The equity financing comprises the issue of 635m new shares at a price of 0.05p/share and we estimate that the additional shares represent around 28% of the enlarged company.
• The announcement also confirms the appointment of interim CEO, Patrick Cullen, as CEO with immediate effect.

Conclusion: Expansion of the Ontario exploration programme and fundraising to advance the new projects and the White Pine uranium project.

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 4.4p, Mkt Cap £96m – Temporary land access claims

BUY – 18.1p

• The Company announced last week that a precautionary measure was filed in court against the Ministry for the Environment.
• The filing was initiated by three local landowners and relates to the order granting the Company a temporary access to land that it does not own.
• Land access was secured in December last year to carry FS and permitting related fieldwork.
• Under Portuguese regulation, once ministerial order is contested its authority is suspended with no judicial evaluation of the merits of the filing awaiting a judgement by the court.
• The Company temporarily suspended drilling programme awaiting a response of the Ministry to the filing.
• The team consulted with legal advisers concluding that the measure is without merit and is looking forward to restarting work on the affected license area shortly.

Conclusion: The Company pauses fieldwork at the Barroso Lithium Project awaiting response of Portuguese authorities to local landowners contesting ministerial order granting access to license areas not owned by the Company

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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