SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 14th March 2025

Gold breaks out to make new all-time high on Tariff concerns and Fed rate cut expectations

Copper ($9,850/t) rises further on movement of physical copper into US warehouses 

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Alphamin Resources* ( AFM CN) – Temporary suspension of operations

Rome Resources (RMR LN) – Operations update

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – Interims highlight strong cash position pending final approval of the mining license by the new Ghana government

Barrick Gold (GOLD N) – Reko Diq project looking less likely as Baloch Liberation Army causes substantial damage in multiple attacks across Balochistan

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Trading approved for OTCQB market in the US

First Quantum (FM CN) – Copper concentrate stockpiles allowed to be exported

PYX Resources (PYX LN) – Preliminary FY24

SolGold* (SOLG LN) – Appointment of Charles Joseland as a Senior Independent Director as part of management reorganisation

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) – Termination of Glencore offtake agreement

Gold ($2,998/oz) breaks out to make new all-time high on Tariff concerns and Fed rate cut expectations

• Gold prices hit a new all-time high in Asian trading at 4:01am this morning driven by a correction in equity markets.
• Asian equities moved higher with the Hang Seng rising >2% with the CSI 300 up 2.4%.
• China’s CCP is to hold a press conference on Monday where observers expect measures to drive new consumption.
• The Chinese market is enjoying a tech market revival which it hopes will extend into other sectors
• Chinese banks are being encouraged to increase loan approvals to support new demand.

Copper ($9,850/t) rises further on movement of physical copper into US warehouses

• Comex premiums are now ~$1,100-$1,400 over LME prices with traders rushing to deliver metal into the US
• Traders expect to see 250,000t of high-grade copper cathode shipped into the US relatively quickly with the potential to disrupt available supplies in other markets
• This metal is unlikely to flow back out of the US due to transport costs.
• Smelters are now paying extraordinary premiums to source feedstock and are said to be offering Tc/Rcs of -40/4 and -60/6.
• These are unprecedented times and it would be dangerous to go short in a market where unprecedented buying of physical metal can drag 3-month copper prices higher
• Some smelters are bringing maintenance plans forward due to uneconomic Tc/Rc rates potentially exacerbating future shortages of physical metal.#
• Other smelters will be accelerating the production and sale of metal for delivery into Comex.
• The potential / probable introduction of further Tariffs on copper into the US is thought to be creating substantial uncertainty within US consumers.
• Cobre Panama remains closed while Indonesia looks likely to clamp down on excessive production by Chinese miners.
• Chilean cathode tenders are said to be selling at $400-500/t premiums driven by traders buying for the US market
• The situation looks likely to drive copper through $10,000/t by Monday.

Tin prices jumped nearly 10% hitting ~$36,600/t, the highest since early 2022, on reports of a suspension of the Bisi Mine operated by Alphamin Resources in the DRC.

• Alphamin produced~17kt last year or more than 4% of global production of ~380tk. (Mining.com)
• The stock sold off more than 40% on the news on Thursday.

Sharepickers: Video – Last Time this Happened Gold went up by 180%:  

Economics

US – Chuck Schumer, A Democratic Senate Minority Leader, said he would support a Republican funding bill in a sharp reversal to his previous intentions to block the bill.

• Endrosement is likely to see more Democrats supporting the bill.
• “There are no winners in a government shutdown,” Schumer saif in his announcement on the Senate floor.
• Without the bill passed, the government may be forced to shutdown o Saturday with all “non essential” functions to be suspended and hundreds of thousands of workers to be furloughed.
• President Trump said he would blame Democrats for any shutdown
• “If they shutdown, its not the Republicans’ fault… there’s something wrong with them… They’re deranged.”

China – Chinese equities climb with CSI 300 Index up 2.6% hitting the highest level since start of the year on the news of an official briefing to discuss ways to support private consumption. (Bloomberg)

• Officials from the finance ministry, commerce ministry, the central bank and other state agencies will hold a press conference on measures to support consumption on Monday.

UK – The economy unexpectedly contracted 0.1%mom in January driven by declines in manufacturing and construction.

• A drop may be partly attributed to weather related factors as the UK was hit with the strongest storm in 10 years.
• Estimates were for a 0.1%mom expansion.
• The pound pulled back on the news while markets slightly increased their expectations for more rate cuts this year.
• Traders now forecast slightly more than two rate cuts this year. (Bloomberg)

Ukraine/Russia – President Putin supported the idea of a 30 day ceasefire on condition a number of issues to be discussed with the US.

• “The idea itself is correct and we certainly support it, but there are issues that we need to discuss… We need to talk to our American colleagues and partners about this, maybe call President Trump and discuss it with him, but we support the idea of ​​ending this conflict by peaceful means,” Putin said.

Currencies

US$1.0856/eur vs 1.0880/eur previous. Yen 148.83/$ vs 147.81/$. SAr 18.220/$ vs 18.367/$. $1.294/gbp vs $1.296/gbp. 0.631/aud vs 0.630/aud. CNY 7.244/$ vs 7.243/$

Dollar Index 103.950 vs 103.618 previous

Precious metals:         

Gold US$2,998/oz vs US$2,941/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 86.3moz vs 86.3moz previous

Platinum US$1,016/oz vs US$977/oz previous

Palladium US$979/oz vs US$948/oz previous

Silver US$34.0/oz vs US$33.1/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,250/oz vs US$5,400/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,850/t vs US$9,729/t previous

Aluminium US$2,706/t vs US$2,685/t previous

Nickel US$16,664/t vs US$16,480/t previous

Zinc US$2,984/t vs US$2,928/t previous

Lead US$2,093/t vs US$2,072/t previous

Tin US$36,585/t vs US$33,395/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$70.7/bbl vs US$71.1/bbl previous

• The IEA’s March oil market report forecasts 2025 global oil demand growth of 1mb/d in 2025 (-0.1mb/d m/m), which is forecast to be outpaced by global oil supply growth of 1.6mb/d, or more if OPEC+ unwinds output cuts.
• Conversely, OPEC’s March monthly oil report made no change to global oil demand forecasts of 1.4mb/d growth in both 2025 and 2026, which is expected to outpace supply growth of ~1mb/d in each year.
• US Henry Hub natural gas prices fell after the EIA reported an above expectation (-50bcf) w/w draw of 62bcf to 1,7698cf, with storage inventories stabilising at 27% below last year and 11.9% below the 5-year average.

Natural Gas €40.7/MWh vs €42.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $63.3/lb vs $63.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (China CFR) US$102.2/t vs US$101.9/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$483.9/t vs US$483.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$177.0/t vs US$175.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.9/t vs US$107.9/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$36,170/t vs US$33,565/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$61,434/t vs US$61,375/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,009/t vs US$10,010/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$810/t vs US$810/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$358/mtu vs US$358/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$4.8/lb vs US$4.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$300/t vs US$300/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,543/t vs US$1,543/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$337.5/t vs US$337.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Company News

Alphamin Resources* ( AFM CN) C$0.46, Mkt Cap C$588m – Temporary suspension of operations

Rome Resources (RMR LN) 0.2p, Mkt Cap £12m – Operations update

• Alphamin temporarily suspended its operations at the Bisie Tine Mine in Walikale District, North Kivu Province, DRC.
• The decision was made after reports of advancement of M23 militant groups in the direction of the mine.
• M23 is reported to have taken the towns of Nyabiondo on 9 March 2025, the capital of the Osso-Banyungu sector located ~110km northwest of Goma followed by Kashebere a further 13km west of Nyabiondo on 12 March 2025.
• All operational mining personnel are being evacuated from the mine site with only essential personnel to remain for the care, maintenance and security of the property.
• The Company highlighted the recent announcement of peace talks on the conflict that was scheduled to be held in Angola on March 18.
• Separately, Rome has also put out an update on its exploration programme carried at the Bisie North Project located 8km from Alphamin licenses.
• The Company has now completed its drilling at the Mont Agoma Project with the Company now preparing to temporarily suspend operations at the mine site.
• The Company is finalising the relocation of all personnel to Kisangani.
• Last two holes (MADD024 and MADD026) intersected wide zones of visible tin and copper mineralisation with core sent to assay laboratories.
• Last two holes take total metres drilled to date at the Bisie North Project to ~2,200m in 10 holes at Mont Agoma and ~2,300m in 18 holes at Kalayi.
• Latest drilling was testing down dip extension of the mineralisation.
• The Company is expecting to release maiden Inferred MRE at both Kalayi and Mont Agoma before the end of April 2025.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Alphamin

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 8.01p, Mkt Cap £55m – Interims highlight strong cash position pending final approval of the mining license by the new Ghana government

1. Atlantic Lithium report interim results for the six-month period to end December 2024.
2. Administration costs fell to A$194k vs $478k a year earlier.
3. Consulting costs also fell to A$402k from 588k as work slowed at Ewoyaa pending final mining license ratification by the Ghana government.
4. Employee benefits fell to A$797k from $954k.
5. Legal costs remained steady at A$325k vs $337k.
6. Net foreign exchange benefits rose to A$805k vs $295k.
7. Total loss before tax more than halved to A$2m vs $5.8m yoy .
8. Exchange differences on the translation of foreign operations rose to A$6.5m from a loss of -$1.6m.
9. This is a non-cash item and results on the revaluation of the assets.
10. Income tax fell to A$5k from $63k
11. Total comprehensive income rose to a profit of $4.4m from a loss of -$7.3m yoy.
12. Cash is healthy at A$7m

Conclusion: In the current lithium market environment, we would expect the Ghana government to be keen to incentivise the project to ensure a rapid move to production.

We understand offtakers remain highly active looking to source new material in the market indicating substantial future growth for lithium demand in the market.

We see Ewoyaa as one of the lowest operating cost prospect producer in Africa.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Atlantic Lithium

Barrick Gold (GOLD N) US$18.73, Mkt cap £33m – Reko Diq project looking less likely as Baloch Liberation Army causes substantial damage in multiple attacks across Balochistan

• An unconfirmed report suggest The BLA ‘Baloch Liberation Army’ carried out 44 attacks at 40 locations in 13 districts of Balochistan.
• The BLA claim to have eliminated 130 enemy personnel with a further 55 injured.
• The group hit gas pipelines at two locations, railway tracks at seven locations also destroying two bridges.
• 13 trucks carrying minerals were burnt and a further 14 locations in Balochistan were blockaded.
• The Baloch Yakjehti Committee have called for urgent action following a report on a number of extra-judicial torture and killing by Pakistani security forces in Kech, Balochistan.
• The presence of so much BLA activity across the region will make any mine development by any company unlikely.
• It is possible that China might risk its people on mines in the region but most other nations would not want a company to take this sort of risk with its nationals.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 11.97p, Mkt Cap £76m – Trading approved for OTCQB market in the US

• Empire Metals report the approval for its shares to trade on the OTCQB Market in the US wit the shares able to trade on the market under the EMPLF ticker.
• The ability to trade on the OTCQB should better enable US investors to access the stock and may help liquidity with increased trading hours in the US market.
• Empire is working on the development of a Titanium Dioxide product from its Pitfield project in Western Australia.
• Recent results indicate a high-purity TiO2 product is possible with test work showing assays of 91.6% TiO2 XRF at ALS Metallurgy in Perth.
• The team reckon the product may be suitable as a feedstock for high-grade titanium dioxide pigment production or titanium sponge metal production.
• Rutile Titanium Dioxide, 93%min, currently sells for US$2,020-2,120/t FOB China (AsianMetal.com).
• Further work will need to be done to optimise and confirm the TiO2 product results.
• Management are looking at the potential to build a sizeable pilot plant facility near the mine in an area with good infrastructure.

Conclusion:  The OTCQB facility will give US investors access to invest in a large-scale titanium mineral deposit in Australia with the potential to develop a new higher-value TiO2 product.

The demonstration of the ability to produce an advanced TiO2 product is a significant step forward for the Pitfield project and may serve to attract the attention of larger TiO2 and titanium metal processors.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

First Quantum (FM CN) C$20, Mkt Cap C$17bn – Copper concentrate stockpiles allowed to be exported

• Panama authorities authorised the export of stockpiled copper concentrates from the Cobre Panama site, Reuters reported.
• Mining operations were suspended 2023 with 120kt of copper concentrate stockpiled on site.
• Stock jumped 14% on the news as the decision was considered as a positive sign that authorities may be willing to negotiate a restart of the mine.

PYX Resources (PYX LN) 1.5p, Mkt Cap £7m – Preliminary FY24

• PYX Resources, a mineral sands producer with operations in Indonesia, released its preliminary results for FY24.
• Revenues down at US$11.0m (FY23: $22.7m) reflecting a drop in production.
• Heavy rains in May and June coupled with the collapse of a bridge providing access to the mine saw a sharp reduction in output in 2H24.
• PBT -$4.1m (FY23: -$10.5m).
• PAT -$1.2m (FY23: -$10.6m).
• EPS -0.75c (FY23: -2.32c).
• CFO -$1.1m (FY23: -$1.9m).
• FCF -$2.5m (FY23: -$4.4m).
• Closing cash balance stood at $5.0m with no bank debt.

SolGold* (SOLG LN) 7.62p, Mkt Cap £231m – Appointment of Charles Joseland as a Senior Independent Director as part of management reorganisation

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1. Solgold report the appointment of Charles Joseland as a Senior Independent Director.
2. Charles Joseland will be responsible for liaising with the governance teams at the Company’s institutional investors.
3. Joseland is currently a non-executive director and will continue as Chair of the Audit and Risk Committee and a member of the Remuneration Committee.
4. Charles joined SolGold as a NED last year having formerly spent 32 years with PwC as an audit partner.
5. Jiangxi Copper increased its investment this week to 12.19% from 6.95% through the purchase of US$18m (~157m shares) at US$0.115/share.
6. Other major shareholders include Billiton at 10.36% and Newcrest at 10.31%.
7. Today’s news is part of an ongoing management restructuring which saw Dan Vujcic appointed as CEO with Scott Caldwell moving to an NED position.
8. Paul Smith stepped up to become non-executive Chairmanship
9. Dan Vujcic previously advised on M&A and equity markets with a series of investment banks including;  Jefferies, Morgan Stanley and Citi and was most recently, Chief Development Officer, at MAC Copper Limited.

Conclusion: The strong performance of copper and gold this week should lift SolGold shares particularly with increasing interest from Jiangxi Copper.

*SP Angel acts as broker to Solgold

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) 8.5p, Mkt Cap £61m – Termination of Glencore offtake agreement

• Zanaga Iron Ore report the termination of the Glencore offtake agreement.
• Zanaga has also bought back Glencore’s 43% stake for US15m, representing an equivalent price of US$0.0516 (~4.16p/s)
• The offtake termination follows the raising of US$21.5m at c.4.1p with funds raised from Mark Cutifani, Tony Trahar, Tony O’Neil, Phil Mitchell and Mick Davis among others.
• The total number of shares available in issue following the buyback will be: 722,740,460
• Zanaga project key metrics:
• Stage 1 throughput – 12mpta operation.
  • CAPEX – $1.9bn,
  • OPEX – US$31.5/dmt LoM
  • NPV – $3.68bn
  • IRR – 26%.
• Stage 2 throughput – 30mtpa
  • CAPEX – $1.87bn
  • OPEX – $25/dmt
  • NPV – $7.4bn,
  • IRR – 28.2%.

Conclusion: The restructuring and reorganisation of Zanaga should give new momentum to the project at a time when steel producers are looking for higher-grade feedstock for Electric Arc furnaces.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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