People dig out their cars parked along Lancaster St. during a winter storm on Monday, Jan. 26, 2026 in Albany, New York.
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The burgeoning Super El Niño will have major implications for winter weather in the United States
Winter is not only when this El Niño will peak in strength, but also when its influence on global weather is most pronounced
Ask a Scientist: What’s a super El Niño?
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CNN
Ask a Scientist: What’s a super El Niño?
0:48
🌊 Watch the full Ask a Scientist about El Niño interview only in the CNN Weather app. 👨🏻🔬
El Niño is a natural climate cycle marked by warmer than average water temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The warmer water triggers corresponding shifts in the atmosphere that have a domino-like influence on weather patterns around the globe – usually in ways that are largely predictable well in advance
The stronger an El Niño is, the more likely these expected weather patterns will play out. And this one could be going for gold
It’s strengthening rapidly, forecast to become a Super El Niño no later than October, and has a nearly 70% chance by year-end of becoming the strongest El Niño on record
This potentially record-breaking El Niño is “something that’s very unusual, if not a once in a lifetime type of (strength),” a meteorologist with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
It’s important to note that a historically strong El Niño does not mean that historically intense weatherand climate impacts will unfold — it’s just increasing the odds that certain weather patterns will play out, NOAA says
Here’s what the US could experience this winter courtesy of El Niño
No two El Niño winters are the same, but most have temperature and precipitation trends in common. That’s because El Niño typically sends the jet stream — the cross-country river of air that storms flow through — south of its normal position and into the southern tier of the US
The result tends to be more storms and wetter and cooler weather in southern portions of the country, while northern ones turn drier and warmer (Yes, snow-loving Northeasterners, that means less snow on average during strong El Niño winters.)
Expected weather pattern changes in a typical El Niño winter.
The opposite is true for the Southeast and parts of the southern Plains, where El Nino’s cooler trend and increased precipitation set the table for snow, sleet and freezing rain. Exactly how hard it ends up wintering in these areas will depend on how cold it gets
Then there’s the impact on severe thunderstorms, which after peaking in spring, normally pick up steam again near and along the Gulf Coast from late fall to early winter
El Niño puts Florida at a particularly higher risk of them during the winter. The script flips in other parts of the Gulf Coast, which are less active than normal a climate scientist at Columbia University
We’re still months out from winter, but NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is always looking ahead. Their December through February forecasts for both temperature and precipitation are showing hallmarks of El Niño
The temperature forecast for December 2026 through February 2027 from the Climate Prediction Center. Oranges and reds represent warmer than normal conditions.
The precipitation forecast for December 2026 through February 2027 from the CPC. Greens represent wetter than normal conditions and browns represent drier than normal conditions.
The highest probabilities for above average temperatures stretch across the entire northern tier. This includes the area from the Pacific Northwest to Midwest that’s typically warmer during El Niño winter
Notably, warmer-than-normal temperatures are possible over more than half of the Lower 48. El Niño can’t be blamed for everything — a world warming due to fossil fuel pollution is always playing a role. Winter is the fastest-warming season for most of the US, according to an analysis from the non-profit research group Climate Central
Precipitation trends this winter also have the El Niño watermark. Wetter than normal weather is possible for a wide expanse of the US, including Southern California, the entire southern tier states and even the East Coast. The highest confidence so far in these conditions is centered on the Southeast
The areas forecast to be drier than normal aren’t quite perfectly in sync with El Niño, but they are confined to the northern tier, where it is expected to be hotter. And hot and dry is not the combination that will produce snow
As with winter temperatures, research shows a warming climate has also impacted snowfall over the decades. Annual snow amounts have dropped in nearly two-thirds of the US since 1970
Only time will tell just how wintry this winter will be, but El Niño will almost certainly be a main player alongside our warming climate
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