The Stock Market Just Made a Move That Warren Buffett Has Warned About. History Says Investors Should Make This 1 Move
Neil Patel, The Motley Fool
Fri, August 14, 2026 at 8:50 AM GMT+5:30
4 min read
- ^GSPC
+0.65% - NVDA
+0.54%
It’s almost impossible for investors to be critical of the stock market these days. In 2026, the S&P 500 index (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has so far generated a total return of 14% (as of Aug. 12). This follows a fantastic 18% total return in 2025, with double-digit gains posted in the two years before that as well. Stock investors are making money
However, investors continue to monitor valuations. To be more specific, the Buffett indicator, a metric from the Oracle of Omaha, might be signaling what’s to come
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a “Double Down” signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same “Total Conviction” signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
It’s not a good idea to panic, though. History says investors should make this one move
The Buffett indicator considers two key metrics
The Buffett indicator, first mentioned by Warren Buffett in 2001, measures the total capitalization of the U.S. stock market relative to the country’s gross domestic product. This number is like the popular price-to-earnings ratio, except it applies to the entire market and economy. It’s a valuation gauge
Right now, the Buffett indicator is at 238%, an all-time high. This means the stock market’s value is 2.4 times the size of the entire U.S. economy. Assuming that a reading of 100% shows that valuations are fair, the current level suggests a stock market bubble ready to pop
There are limitations to the Buffett indicator that investors shouldn’t overlook. This figure doesn’t account for the fact that large U.S. companies generate significant revenue from other countries. This can inflate the ratio. If it were possible to adjust valuations downward to reflect only the financial results from domestic operations, the Buffett indicator would be a more accurate metric
It’s also important to understand the market’s composition in 2026. Tech-heavy enterprises dominate, commanding market caps that were unthinkable in previous generations. Even at their scale, some of these businesses continue to grow rapidly, post huge profits, and possess durable competitive advantages. And many are sitting at the center of the artificial intelligence boom, which could be another major growth catalyst
It’s tempting, but avoid trying to time the market
Successful investing comes down to this basic principle: Buy low and sell high. Every investor wants to be able to do this consistently. But it might encourage trading too frequently in an effort to correctly time the market. This is a game that you shouldn’t play, as it can lead to losses in your portfolio
