Koivunen Contract, For Better Or For Worse, Sets Precedent For Dubas And Penguins Moving Forward

Up until Thursday, the only outstanding order of business for Kyle Dubas and the Pittsburgh Penguins was to lock up RFA forward Ville Koivunen for the 2026-27 season

And, on Thursday, he did indeed get locked up. But it was on terms that almost no one expected

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The Penguins and Koivunen agreed to terms on an eight-year deal worth $4 million annually, the team announced. The long-term contract comes with no trade protection, takes effect in the 2026-27 season, and runs through the end of the 2034-35 season. And because of the new rules regarding contracts under the new CBA that takes effect on Sept. 16, Koivunen could very well be the last NHL player to sign an eight-year deal, as extensions in the future will be capped off at seven years

When taking a gander at some of the other NHL players signed to eight-year deals, Koivunen doesn’t exactly fit the mold. He’s played in just 47 NHL games and has two goals and 14 points, which means he is a largely unproven young player who wouldn’t typically fetch that term

However, Dubas pointed to the rapidly changing market, among other factors, as a big reason behind the term

“There were many factors that led to us going down this path,” Dubas saidr was watching the way the market evolved over the season and especially the summer and trying to best plan for the future of the Penguins. We view the contract as a bet – on Ville, his potential, and our belief that he is going to do the work in to reach that potential.”

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He expanded on this: “The evolution of the market is a key factor, for sure. The way that older forwards who have lower lineup ceilings were paid as free agents and watching the way the restricted free agent market took shape led us to take a different view on how we wanted to handle our own players, for sure.”

Penguins Re-sign Ville Koivunen To Eight-Year ContractThe Pittsburgh Penguins re-signed Ville Koivunen to a huge contract on Thursday

In other words, the Penguins are betting pretty big on Koivunen here. Sure, the $4 million average annual value isn’t the end of the world, but the eight-year term is a big commitment that will take the 23-year-old Koivunen through age 31. It also makes him somewhat waivers-proof, as Pittsburgh currently has 15 forwards on their NHL roster and most certainly will be forced to waive a player or two at this point – barring no further moves – and teams are unlikely to take on Koivunen’s contract on the waiver wire.

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Even with the term, though, it will be very difficult for this contract to hurt the Penguins in any substantial way:

– If Koivunen plays up to his ceiling potential as a top-six winger, $4 million AAV will look like one of the NHL’s most bargain contracts

– If Koivunen doesn’t quite play up to his ceiling potential but becomes an NHL regular, he will pretty much meet the value of his $4 million AAV

– If Koivunen is a bust, the Penguins will have several options, including a sub-26 buyout window, burying the contract, or trading him somewhere else (given the low enough AAV of the contract)

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So, the contract itself isn’t necessarily the issue here. 

It’s the precedent that the contract sets

Koivunen is the first in a wave of Penguins’ prospects who, while trying to make his big break into the NHL, became an RFA in need of a new contract. Again, he is largely unproven, even more so than Egor Chinakhov, who just signed a three-year extension worth $6.25 million annually. 

Next summer, goaltender Sergei Murashov, defenseman Owen Pickering, and forwards Rutger McGroarty, Avery Hayes, and Tristan Broz will all be RFAs in need of new contracts. All of them will likely see the NHL at some point this season, and each of them will have varying degrees of NHL experience and varying degrees of potential and production

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Even if none of the above have what amounts to a breakout NHL season, what if they put up similar numbers to Koivunen in a similar NHL sample size? What if they exceed Koivunen’s production prior to signing his long-term deal?

Koivunen’s eight-year contract only sets a precedent for these players that, should they match or best his NHL sample size up to this point, they’ll feel they’ve earned a similar type of contract. This is especially true in the cases of Murashov, McGroarty, and Pickering, who – like Koivunen – are expected to have ceilings a bit higher than the others. 

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So, if that precedent is set with this contract, what will McGroarty ask for and expect next season? Murashov? Pickering? Hayes and Broz? What about Ben Kindel and Harrison Brunicke in a few years? The reality is that this contract has set the bar higher for those fringe NHL prospects and even the more surefire NHL talents, and they will expect nothing less than what Koivunen got if they outperform or continue to outperform what he’s done so far

Sure, given the ludicrous amount of cap space the Penguins are set to have in the next several years, they can afford a few Chinakhovs, Koivunens, and other “betting on potential” contracts. But if none of the above players truly break out (Kindel aside) next season but are in the same situation Koivunen found himself in this summer, how many “betting on potential” contracts can the Penguins hand out while still keeping the books open for proven NHL talent and furthering their agenda to take steps toward sustainable contention?

All in all, this contract isn’t a huge issue on its own. The big question is how it will change the approach to contracts for the Penguins’ homegrown young players moving forward. It’s a good thing that Dubas and the organization is willing to bet on their own young talent, and deals like this will look even better if they pan out

But if they don’t, they may have just backed themselves into an obligatory corner that will be difficult to escape

Pittsburgh Penguins’ 2026-27 Lineup Projections: ForwardsIf Pittsburgh’s roster remains status quo heading into the 2026-27 seasons, they will have some interesting decisions to make on the forward front

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