SpaceX’s Q2 results top estimates but stock drops on AI capex costs
Pras Subramanian· Senior Reporter
Wed, August 5, 2026 at 2:17 AM GMT+5:30
3 min read
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SpaceX (SPCX) reported second quarter results on Tuesday that topped estimates — its first report as a public company — which comes as the stock has been in a recent free fall.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion versus $6.81 billion, per Bloomberg consensus, up sequentially from $4.7 billion in Q1. SpaceX posted adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion vs $2.0 billion consensus expected
SpaceX stock slipped in after-hours trading
SpaceX said its Q2 capital expenditures came in at $18.37 billion, slightly below estimates for $18.58 billion
The concern with SpaceX’s large capital requirements — like those of other large AI frontier startups — is that its AI infrastructure investments will not generate a healthy return given the level of cash required
SpaceX’s AI segment posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion versus estimates of $2.39 billion, but the AI spending hit ballooned to $15.8 billion compared to $7.7 billion in Q1
Separately, SpaceX announced on Tuesday that it is partnering with Nvidia to design its Starmind AI-1 payload, which would bring “datacenter class compute” into orbit. The partnership will use Nvidia’s Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs, and increase SpaceX’s peak satellite computing capacity to 250 kW
Elon Musk added on the earnings call that Nvidia would the exclusive supplier of chips for SpaceX’s AI chip needs
With its Q2 results behind it, a big overhang still looms
“[On Tuesday afternoon] SpaceX🚀 (SPCX: NASDAQ) reports as a public company for the first time, and two days later, Aug. 6, its lockup frees hundreds of millions of insider shares — roughly triple the current tradable float,” Epistrophy Capital’s Cory Johnson wrote in a client note
The lockup expiration will free up to 20% of shares for sale, and investors are worried that the added supply will keep the stock under pressure
Another part of the capital expenditures story is the company’s satellite broadband service, Starlink, and what’s next for the launch business with Starship.
SpaceX said Starlink subscribers topped 12 billion at the end of Q2, with the connectivity business adjusted EBITDA coming in at $2.60 billion versus $2.41 billion estimated
“It’s not out of the question that at some point Starlink will deliver the majority of the world’s internet,” Musk said on the earnings call
SpaceX is eyeing the first-ever tower catch of a Starship upper stage, using the Mechazilla arms at Starbase that have already caught the larger Super Heavy booster. “Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower on next flight,” CEO Elon Musk posted, replying to a question on the upcoming mission, known as Flight 14
