WEATHER
National Weather Service
August forecast calls for more record heat. When will it stop?
Above normal temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. through mid-August, according to long-range predictions from NOAA
Dinah Voyles PulverUSA TODAY
Aug. 1, 2026, 6:04 a.m. ET
As the clock ticks down to the start of school for many students and teachers across the southern United States, heat risks will linger for much of the nation as above-normal summertime temperatures continue
Overall, above-normal temperatures are forecast for much of the United States through mid-August, according to long-range predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service
A heat wave on Aug. 1 and 2 over the Southwest is expected to keep temperatures in the 110- to 120-degree range, then expand northward through Colorado and Utah into Montana, where temperatures will range into the 100s, according to the weather service’s Weather Prediction Center
Record-breaking warm overnight low temperatures are also expected, limiting overnight relief from the blazing heat and increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses, the weather service said
The coast-to-coast heat is expected to break later in the month, with a region of more seasonable weather in the Northeast in the Climate Prediction Center’s 3-4 week outlook. But even then, much of the country is expected to be unseasonably warm
Dangerous heat forecast in the West
For the first weekend of August, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed an extremely critical – their highest level – fire danger area across eastern Washington where wind gusts of up to 50 mph are expected to support very rapid fire growth, said Alan Gerard, a retired federal meteorologist and author of the Balanced Weather Substack blog
Given the dozens of active wildfires in the region, the national wildfire system already is at its highest level of preparedness, Gerard said. The National Interagency Fire Center has reported that more than 25,000 firefighters and support personnel are working 87 large fires in the nation, mostly in the Northwest
From Aug. 5 to 9, below normal rainfall is expected in the Northwest and Central United States, while moisture in the Southwest is forecast to support an increased potential for heavy rain
When will the heat end? Cold front in forecast for some
Warmer temperatures are expected across the eastern Ohio Valley, Appalachians, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Aug. 5-11, said Bob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, a private weather company. The heat may be less intense than in early July, but high humidity could “lead to uncomfortable days ahead,” Smerbeck said
However, there’s something for that region to look forward to. Smerbeck said a strong cold front may follow that intense heat, bringing a little relief
Beach cautions for California and southwestern Lake Michigan
Beach advisories are in place along the California coast over the first weekend as swells from Tropical Storm Genevieve will help to create conditions stirred up offshore, as the water service warns of high surf and rip current conditions
Advisories also have been issued for beaches along the south and southwestern shores of Lake Michigan in Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin for potentially life-threatening conditions, including high waves and rip currents, through Monday. The weather service warned the lake could produce waves up to 9-feet high in Cook County, Illinois
July heat broke records
More than 130 all-time high temperature records were set across the nation in July, and more than 180 records were set for all-time high overnight temperatures Many of the records were broken in the High Plains and in the Northeast
Notably, Lewis Lake Divide, a high mountain pass in Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming, set an all-time high temperature record on July 24, reaching 102 degrees, and breaking its previous record – set in 1989 – by 8 degrees. However, the location also broke a monthly record cold temperature on July 1, with an overnight low at just 24 degrees
Dozens of heat records were set in Montana, Wyoming and Utah during the month
What’s happening with hurricane season?
Besides Genevieve, it appears the Eastern Pacific may be taking a break, with no additional storms expected during the first five days of August, according to the National Hurricane Center
The center’s tracking map for the Atlantic hurricane basin remains clear, with no tropical storms on the horizon for the first week of the month. NOAA’s global hazards outlook for the first two weeks of August also shows continued quiet across the Atlantic with below-average rainfall
Forecasters expect El Niño, which could be among the strongest on record, to suppress tropical activity this summer, but not completely eliminate the risk of tropical storms and hurricanes
AccuWeather’s Smerbeck said the tropical storm risk could be a little higher in the Southwest Atlantic between Aug. 5 to 10, with less wind shear possible, and advised interest along the North Carolina coast to keep an eye on potential storm development
Monsoon rain coverage in the Southwest could surge during the second week of the month, possibly with some tropical influence from the eastern Pacific, Smerbeck added, with some signals indicating a potential tropical storm along the coast of Mexico Aug. 12 to 14
Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She’s written about hurricanes, tornadoes and violent weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X
