With training camps underway, we’re getting our first real chance to see how this year’s rookie class measures up against pro competition. However, until the real games begin, all we can do is project how NFL newbies will fare in 2026, so that’s what I’m doing here. Below you’ll find my top 11 candidates to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, but before we dive in, here are four trends to note:
- The last eight OROYs were all drafted in the top 10.
- The No. 1 overall pick has won the award only once in the last 14 years (Kyler Murray, 2019).
- No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won this Associated Press award.
- Four of the last five OROY winners played for teams that made the playoffs.
NOTE: The odds below, provided by DraftKings, are current as of 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, July 30
+2800
Rank
11
Carson Beck
Arizona Cardinals
It might take an injury to the freshly paidJacoby Brissett, or a sudden decline in his performance, for Beck to make any noise in the OROY race this season. I can’t completely rule out a scenario where Beck becomes a major factor, though. As you might recall, Saints QB Tyler Shough was the runner-up, albeit a distant one, to last season’s OROY, Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan, even though Shough only started nine games in 2025. In a year where playing time could be very hard to come by for rookie quarterbacks, elevation into the starting lineup by midseason could easily make Beck relevant in the award competition because of the position he plays. And Arizona might be ready to see what Beck can offer if the rebuilding team starts piling up defeats. He’s still a massive long shot who shares the Arizona backfield with the (spoiler alert!) front-runner to win OROY this season, Jeremiyah Love. The biggest OROY obstacle for Beck and Love this season could end up being the Cardinals’ win-loss record. They have what I view as the toughest schedule in the league, including double dips with their Super Bowl-aspiring division foes in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle.
+2800
Rank
10
Antonio Williams
Washington Commanders
Someone other than Terry McLaurinhas to catch passes for the Commanders this season. There’s a clear road to high volume from the slot for Williams, who doesn’t have much competition for the job right now. He has displayed the ability to generate notable numbers, producing 1,005 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns (one rushing) in 14 games with Clemson in 2024. I’m not expecting him to post stats like those in his first NFL season, but given the opportunity in front of him and his ability to separate from defenders, he’s worth mentioning in this space. If he earns Jayden Daniels’ trust, maybe the pressure on Washington to sign or trade for a veteran receiver before the start of the season will subside. In that scenario, targets shouldn’t be a problem for the slippery slot weapon.
+4000
Rank
9
Omar Cooper Jr.
New York Jets
The Jets spent two of their three first-round picks this year on pass catchers, with TE Kenyon Sadiq (16th overall) coming off the board 14 picks before Cooper (30th), but it’s Cooper who gets the nod here. As I mentioned earlier, a tight end has never won this particular award, and unless OC Frank Reich goes all out in two-TE sets, Sadiq is going to be giving way to Mason Taylor on a good chunk of reps. Meanwhile, Cooper has a clear path to becoming the primary slot receiver, and only six quarterbacks have targeted slot receivers more than new Jets QB1 Geno Smith since the start of the 2022 season, per Next Gen Stats. There are other mouths to feed, between WR1 Garrett Wilson, deep sleeper Adonai Mitchell, RB Breece Hall and the aforementioned tight ends, so I’m not convinced Cooper will see the volume to be a leading OROY contender in 2026. He’s drawn comps to Deebo Samuel for a reason, though: He brings dynamo juice to the field. I will be surprised if he doesn’t emerge as a favorite for Smith early on in their time together.
+2800
Rank
8
KC Concepcion
Cleveland Browns·WR
It’s asking a lot of Concepcion to rise to the top of the mountain when you consider the Browns have arguably the NFL’s most dire quarterback situation and might be the league’s worst team in 2026. On the bright side, he’s the franchise’s highest-drafted receiver in a decade (24th overall) and the race to become Cleveland’s most-targeted pass catcher appears to be wide open. Now, Jerry Jeudy, fellow rookie Denzel Boston (drafted in Round 2, 15 picks after Concepcion) and promising second-year tight end Harold Fannin Jr. each have the potential to be the No. 1 target in the Browns’ passing game, as well. Boston could be particularly potent in the red zone, where his size could help him shine brighter than Concepcion in Year 1. Ultimately, I’m expecting Concepcion’s ability to quickly carve out open space from the slot position will make him something of a safety valve for whoever ends up at QB for the Browns, and that could translate to OROY-caliber production.
+2500
Rank
7
De’Zhaun Stribling
San Francisco 49ers·WR
Stribling is a more serious candidate for the award than I thought he was a week ago. Since reporting for training camp, the 49ers have lost two of their top wide receivers. Christian Kirk exited the first practice session early and Ricky Pearsall is dealing with swelling in his knee from the PCL injury he dealt with last season. The Niners have said they’re “concerned” about Pearsall’s injury and are “exploring all options” for next steps, which seems to suggest this might not be a short-term issue. Suddenly, San Francisco could be counting on Stribling to play starter’s reps from the jump. He was a riser leading up to the draft before being selected with the first pick of Round 2, and his ascent might just continue into the season. We know he has a rare combination of size and speed, having run a 4.36-second 40-yard dash at 207 pounds, and the long-strider might be showing it off from Week 1. With defenses likely to be fixated on Mike Evans, Christian McCaffrey and, when healthy, George Kittle, good looks should be there for Stribling. If he capitalizes, the long shot might turn into one of the favorites.
+1000
Rank
6
Makai Lemon
Philadelphia Eagles·WR
Yet another slot receiver makes the list! Lemon, selected 20th overall, was the third wide receiver off the board this year, with the Eagles trading up to land him before the Steelers could strike. With DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown on the roster, Philly has insurance in case the rookie isn’t quite ready for prime time, but GM Howie Roseman didn’t make an aggressive draft move to sit him. It was a good sign to see Lemon take the field for the start of training camp after missing OTAs with a hamstring injury. If he plays up to the Amon-Ra St. Brown comps he received during the pre-draft process, he could quickly rack up YAC and make this ranking look way too conservative. Recent history is not on the side of Lemon, Stribling, Concepcion, Cooper or Williams, though. No receiver drafted outside of the top 12 has won OROY since Percy Harvin in 2009. Also, the Eagles have never had an OROY or DROY winner.
+425
Rank
5
Fernando Mendoza
Las Vegas Raiders
Before Fernando Fanatics bring the pitchforks out for me, my ranking for Mendoza is primarily a reaction to the Raiders’ apparent preference to open the season with Kirk Cousins at QB while the rookie watches and learns. If Las Vegas really plans on giving Mendoza an extended stretch to acclimate, his chances of winning the award will shrink to zero in a hurry. Since 2000, three quarterbacks have won OROY without starting in Week 1 — Herbert (2020), Vince Young (2006) and Ben Roethlisberger (2004) — but each made his first career start within the first four weeks of the season. In the past 19 seasons, Herbert is the only QB who has won OROY without starting in Week 1, and he made his first start in Week 2. I’m placing Mendoza smack dab in the middle of my list because there’s a chance he finds his way into the lineup earlier than expected. If he does that and plays reasonably well, the Heisman winner might end up adding to his trophy case by season’s end.
+550
Rank
4
Carnell Tate
Tennessee Titans·WR
Tate fits the new-wave OROY mold as a wide receiver drafted in the top 10 (fourth overall). The former Buckeye was selected to be Tennessee’s WR1 and all indications so far suggest he’s living up to his lofty billing. It’s not hard to envision him gliding under deep throws from Cam Ward for chunk gains that will help him charge to the front of the pack among this year’s talented class of newbies. However, there are some things that could hold him back through no fault of his own. The Titans’ offensive line is still extremely suspect, and when you combine that with Ward learning a new offense in his second NFL season, I see reason for concern. Also, the team threw big free-agent money at WR Wan’Dale Robinson to reunite him with OC Brian Daboll this offseason, and Robinson averaged 140 targets over the past two years with the Giants, where Daboll was calling the shots. To put that in perspective, only Ja’Marr Chase, Trey McBride, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Justin Jefferson were targeted more than Robinson since the start of the 2024 season. So, while Tate might be Tennessee’s top outside receiver, don’t be surprised if he isn’t the squad’s most targeted pass catcher in 2026.
+700
Rank
3
Jadarian Price
Seattle Seahawks
There is a screaming need to replace Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III in the Seahawks’ offense, and Price was drafted 32nd overall to fill that void. It’s a big step up to go from playing in the shadow of Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame to being counted on as the feature back for an NFL team looking to defend its title, so growing pains would only seem natural. The thing is, Price is drawing rave reviews for his work in the early days of camp, including in pass protection, which will be essential to him playing on all three downs. As head coach Mike Macdonald has pointed out, though, the real test for the rookie will come when the pads are on and the team is doing full-contact work. Even if he does carve out the RB1 role, he eventually could be splitting time with Zach Charbonnet — who might be returning from an ACL tear much earlier than expected — Emanuel Wilson and/or George Holani. So, Price probably will not be able to match the volume his college teammate will see in Arizona, but Price will be playing for a much better team. He could make this race very interesting.
+600
Rank
2
Jordyn Tyson
New Orleans Saints
Tyson was drafted four picks after Tate, at No. 8 overall, and while Tate immediately takes on the title of No. 1 WR for the Titans, Tyson enters his rookie year as the Saints’ WR2. So, I understand if you’re wondering why Tyson is ahead of Tate on my list. For me, it comes down to factors that are out of their control. I see more stability in New Orleans than I do for Tate in Tennessee. It doesn’t hurt that Tyson plays for a squad with a fighting chance in a division that didn’t produce a team with a winning record last season. He has the size, creativity and ball skills to fill a robust highlight reel in Year 1. If teams want to focus on bottling up Saints WR1 Chris Olave, Tyson should see advantageous coverage on a regular basis and maybe the gap in production between the two receivers doesn’t end up as large as some might expect. The big question for Tyson, of course, is health. Injuries were an issue for him in all four of his college seasons. If he can stay healthy and Kellen Moore keeps New Orleans’ offense on the ascent with QB Tyler Shough, New Orleans could have its first OROY since Alvin Kamara won the award in 2017.
+400
Rank
1
Jeremiyah Love
Arizona Cardinals·RB
I’m not going to overreact to offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s viral recent comments that seemed to pour cold water on the excitement about Love. Hyping rookies is anathema to a lot of coaches. I’m not sure there’s anything more to those remarks. It’s true, a running back hasn’t won OROY since Saquon Barkley in 2018. So, it would only be fitting if Love — the first RB drafted in the top five since Barkley — becomes the next rusher to take home the honor. He gives Arizona an instant centerpiece. Love is electric as a ball-carrier, a fireball with a devastating spin move, and he’s versatile enough to function like an extra wide receiver in the passing game. The Cardinals want some excitement outside of TE Trey McBride on offense, and now they have someone who can provide it in bunches. The franchise is even hungrier for wins, though, and those could be hard to come by. Mike LaFleur is in rebuilding mode in his first year as a head coach. The offense as a whole could be a work in progress, and that might lead to some painful stretches against — as I mentioned earlier in this piece — the toughest schedule in the league this season. Also, Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer reported the Cardinals’ plan to avoid overloading Love, with James Conner and Tyler Allgeier involved in the RB rotation. We saw Allgeier take red-zone touches away from Bijan Robinson in Atlanta, and he could do the same to Love. If things really go sideways, Love could have a hard time finding openings with a questionable offensive line blocking for him. Overall, I believe he deserves his front-runner status because of his talent and the opportunity before him, but the road to OROY glory could still be a bumpy one.
