Jalen Duren is the latest free-agent straggler
Inside a league that is increasingly worried about expensive rosters, NBA teams are squeezing players who hit what purports to be the open market. Duren, a restricted free agent, is this summer’s personification of the trend
Organizations own the right of first refusal on restricted free agents, and because there is such consternation about high payrolls these days, they are deploying necessary leverage. With today’s rules, not many teams enter the offseason with cap space. The ones who do understand that extending an offer sheet to a player of Duren’s caliber is a fool’s errand, considering the Detroit Pistons would likely match it and bring him back, as is their right
A restricted free agent, the NBA’s most powerful oxymoron, is left in purgatory
Why Jalen Duren is still a free agent
Hunter Patterson and Jeshua Kidd
Last offseason, four restricted free agents (Cam Thomas, Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey and Quentin Grimes) lingered late into summer, just as Duren has done in 2026. (The Clippers’ Bennedict Mathurin and the Nuggets’ Peyton Watson are the other unsigned restricted free agents of note.) Three weeks after the start of free agency, Duren remains unsigned. Cap space around the league has dried up. The Pistons provide the greatest chance for him to receive his market value
Because he made All-NBA in 2025-26, he is eligible for a five-year, $287 million contract that would begin at 30 percent of the salary cap. But Duren, who averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds on a No. 1 seed while earning All-NBA honors, certainly won’t earn that much, not given the circumstances around him. Front offices are worried about the punitive penalties that come with crossing the second apron, a payroll threshold far above the luxury tax. Surpass it, and a team loses its ability to execute most types of trades and most kinds of signings. Additionally, he had a disappointing playoffs, with his scoring, rebounding and shooting efficiency all notably dropping.
But Duren and the Pistons need each other. More than likely, they will have to compromise. One executive believes he has discovered a fitting one
The Athletic polled 13 members of rival front offices, asking what they would consider a “fair” contract for Duren. Respondents spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the situation freely
The Pistons’ leverage is that no other team has the cap space to offer Duren a rich contract. But Duren’s leverage is that he can accept the qualifying offer, which would entail returning to Detroit on a one-year, $9.6 million contract and becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer, able to sign with whomever he’d like in 2027
“While Detroit might look like they have most of the leverage, given that there are no cap-space teams out there, they’re royally f—– if he takes the qualifying (offer) and walks next year,” one respondent to the poll said. “So, I think leverage is relatively even.”
Two restricted free agents, Grimes and Thomas, accepted qualifying offers last offseason. Of course, they did not assume as much risk as Duren would. Detroit’s current offer to Duren is significantly higher than the Brooklyn Nets’ tiny offer was to Thomas. The Philadelphia 76ers didn’t extend a formal offer to Grimes
One executive believes he’s identified the fair deal for Duren and the Pistons: $204.5 million over five years
Here is how he came to that number: Hypothetically, if Duren were to sign the qualifying offer, then were to garner a four-year deal for the 25-percent max next summer, he would earn $204.5 million over the next five seasons. To save both sides a headache, the Pistons could pay him that right now
Yet, this exec is on the high end of the poll; $204.5 million, even though it’s far below his max, is the second-most guaranteed money any of the respondents suggested
The largest proposed deal was $230 million over five years. Two executives considered $200 million over five years to be fair. The two other five-year deals were for $190 million and $180 million
The person who suggested the $190 million contract referenced the Pistons’ other priorities from earlier in the summer, when they were reportedly preparing to offer guard Austin Reaves a four-year, $177 million contract before he re-upped with the Los Angeles Lakers
“If they were willing to give a max to Reaves, then they should be willing to do five years, $190 million for a younger player who made All-NBA at a more valuable position,” the respondent said
The Pistons have a clean cap sheet moving forward. They currently sit $46 million below the luxury tax. The only large salary on their books for 2027-28 and beyond belongs to MVP candidate Cade Cunningham. Various rotation players — such as Duncan Robinson, John Collins and Isaiah Joe — are not guaranteed beyond 2026-27
Detroit would like to maintain its flexibility. After all, depending on how the Duren situation plays out, it could be a cap-space team in the coming years
This is not the first time that conversations between the Pistons and Duren have stalled. Just last summer, Duren was eligible for an extension, but the two sides were so far apart that they never even got into negotiations
The 22-year-old responded with a breakout season, taking a massive leap as a scorer, handling the basketball more, assuming the role of the go-to guy with Cunningham out with a collapsed lung for the end part of the schedule and improving as both a paint protector and pick-and-roll defender. Behind him and Cunningham, the Pistons soared to the top of the Eastern Conference standings
Then came a curious playoff performance
Duren’s scoring cratered. His activity dissipated. A hulking, 6-foot-10 center who was once impossible to ignore became uninvolved for long stretches
The postseason has stuck in the minds of some, including one executive who suggested another oddly specific contract for Duren: $157.1 million over four years. Duren’s four-year, 25-percent max would climb $27 million higher than that. Still, this executive said he dinged him for his poor play during Detroit’s first-round series against the Orlando Magic and second-round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers
Six other respondents suggested four-year contracts. Three deemed $140 million fair. One was for $135 million; one was for $130 million, and the smallest hypothetical deal, both in total money and average annual value, was $120 million over four years
“The market has kinda shrunk on him,” the executive who proposed $120 million said. “So, I don’t think you can get above (Walker Kessler’s contract). There’s not a single team that’s willing to do that right now. They could really squeeze (him) and say, $25 million a year, but Duren’s not gonna feel good, which means (they’re) not gonna feel good.”
Of the seven four-year deals, $157.1 million was the most expensive. But how did this executive arrive at such an idiosyncratic number? It’s the exact midpoint between what Kessler signed for this summer and the 25-percent max
The Kessler contract was a common reference point for the poll participants. A few weeks ago, the fourth-year center, who is two years older than Duren, signed a four-year, $129.4 million contract with the Lakers, who also traded two first-round picks to complete the acquisition
Kessler is a play finisher and rim-protector who has yet to contribute to a winning team. Duren, from the same draft class and playing the same position, is already an All-Star
“It’s more than Kessler got,” said one of the participants who dubbed $140 million fair. “(Duren is) more available and proven. (It’s) in a similar range to (Houston Rockets center) Alperen Şengün, who I view as an All-Star caliber center but not someone who is a consistent year-in and year-out All-Star. And (it’s) slightly below (Rudy) Gobert, who is/was an All-NBA defender.”
The front office staffer who suggested $130 million over four years did so because it was exactly in line with the contract for the Lakers’ new center
“I can’t see him signing for less than Walker, yet I don’t see why Detroit needs to move beyond that either,” he said
As recently as only a few years ago, it was commonplace to dole out giant contracts to young, star-level restricted free agents. The league changes fast
The type of max contract a player is eligible to receive depends on how long he’s been in the NBA. Before his seventh season, he can make up to 25 percent of the salary cap. Seven-to-nine-year vets can make up to 30 percent of it. Guys who have been around for 10-plus years can earn up to 35 percent
There are a few exceptions, including Duren
Reaching All-NBA in 2025-26 made Duren eligible for the 30-percent max, the five-year, $287 million contract that he certainly won’t ink. His 25-percent max, the one that teams once would hand to young stars without much pushback, would be worth $239 million over five seasons. Over four years, it could earn him $185 million
But the culture around these deals has changed. Last summer, the Oklahoma City Thunder negotiated two core pieces of a reigning champion, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, down to the 25-percent max on extensions after their third seasons rather than letting them enter restricted free agency after their fourth years. (Williams’ starting salary would have risen to 30 percent had he qualified last season.) The Rockets, who are notorious sticklers in these types of moments, bartered Şengün down to a contract that started at 22 percent of the cap.
Less than two weeks ago, 22-year-old superstar Victor Wembanyama went that direction on his own, agreeing to the 25-percent max, even though the 30-percent one would have been a no-brainer for the San Antonio Spurs. In the second-apron era, Wembanyama wanted to give his organization flexibility
So, players in Duren’s situation are now taking less. Organizations are offering less. And an All-Star like Duren is left in limbo
