Markets live updates: ASX trading higher as Tesla shares plunge, unemployment rate remains steady
By business reporters Adelaide Miller and Jasper Wells
Topic:Stock Market
Posted Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 7:25am
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 7:25am
, updated Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 11:40am
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 11:40am
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The unemployment rate has remained steady, with more than 76,000 additional Australians employed last month
The Australian share market is up in this afternoon’s trade, with the Aussie dollar back over 70 US cents
Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s Tesla shares plunged on negative cash flow reporting
Oil is trading at about $US94 a barrel as the war in the Middle East continues
Follow the day’s financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog
Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice
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Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 2:15pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 2:15pm
Market snapshot
By Jasper Wells
- ASX 200:+0.1% to 8,829
- Australian Dollar: +0.47 to 70.18 US Cents
- Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.01%), S&P 500 (+0.05%), Nasdaw Composite (0.58%)
- Europe: FTSE (+1.24%), Stoxx (+0.50%), SAX (+0.58%)
- Spot Gold: -0.12% to $US4,125/ounce
- Oil (Brent Crude): +2.26% TO $us96.20/Barrel
- Iron Ore: -0.27% to $US 98.38/tonne
- Bitcoin: -0.40% to $65,640.13
Prices current at around 2pm AEST
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Key Event
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 3:45pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 3:45pm
Origin confirms data hack
By Jasper Wells
Origin Energy has confirmed that some customer data was hacked yesterday in a statement released on the ASX
The company confirmed “unauthorised access and disclosure” of some customer data, and said it’s still working out the total number of customers impacted
The company will contact any customers when it can confirm they have been affected
Customer data that could have been affected is: name, address, date of birth, contact number, account information; and last four digits of credit card or last three digits of bank account
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 3:40pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 3:40pm
Does the RBA like unemployment?
By Jasper Wells
Today’s ABC Business Daily podcast is hot off the metaphorical podcast presses, and takes a dive into what the fresh employment figures mean for next month’s RBA decision
Dan Ziffer and Emilia Terzon take a look at how today’s unemployments and jobs numbers will impact the bank’s thinking
And some Australian small businesses have been surprised to get reimbursements from the US government for money collected from the so-called liberation-day tariffs
But the US continues to face a ‘national emergency’ in trade matters, and another round of tariffs is on the way
So who – and what – could be back on America’s levy-list?
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 3:20pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 3:20pm
Commonwealth Bank predicts rates hold
By Jasper Wells
Despite markets starting to price in an August RBA rate hike, the Commonwealth Bank is forecasting the RBA will hold rates steady in August
Roughly 29,000 full-time jobs and 47,000 part-time jobs were added to the economy in June. But the bank points out that hours worked only lifted by 0.2%
Likewise, unemployment averaged 4.4%, above the RBA’s latest forecast of 4.2%
The CBA says today’s strong additional jobs numbers won’t be influencing its forecasts much, as the unemployment level remains mostly unchanged
J.P. Morgan agrees, saying the new jobs numbers don’t materially change its outlook, adding that part-time jobs numbers can be volatile
But the investment bank concedes that uncertainty in the Middle East over oil prices could change things, along with a slowing housing market
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 3:00pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 3:00pm
Origin investors move back in
By David Taylor
Origin Energy’s share price has come roaring back
The stock price closed over 1% down yesterday on news the company was investigating a potential cybersecurity breach
About 3pm AEST, the share price was up roughly 2%
Origin has not provided any information to the market other than its original post at 12:42pm yesterday
You can access that
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 2:46pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 2:46pm
Bond market sell-down
By David Taylor
Australia’s 10-year bond yield has just risen above 5%
At 2:30pm AEST, it was 5.01%
It’s the highest the yield has been since late May
It means bond prices are falling as bonds are sold off
Yields move in the opposite direction to bond prices
It follows the release of ABS data showing the jobs market remains “robust”, as one investment bank put it
The move is also consistent with a 0.3% increase in the Australian dollar — higher returning Aussie assets are making the local currency more attractive
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 2:27pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 2:27pm
What’s happening on local share markets?
By Emily Stewart
The ASX 200 is up about 0.6% this afternoon, to 8,874 points (as at 2:20pm AEST)
The broader All Ordinaries is also trading up around 0.5% to 9,053 points
Basic materials, energy and real estate are leading the sectors in positive territory, with technology, healthcare and industrials in the red
In terms of individual stocks, financial services provider Generation Development Group is leading the top performers, up a whopping 34% after reporting record quarterly sales and $46 billion in funds under management
Paladin Energy and Alkane Re
Meanwhile, drug company Neuren Pharmaceuticals is leading the worst-performing stocks
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 1:50pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 1:50pm
Brent oil futures hit six-week high after Trump threats and Houthi attack claims
By Jasper Wells
Overnight, brent oil futures rose above $US95 a barrel for the first time in six weeks, as the US and Iran traded threats and missiles
This morning, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed to have attacked two oil tankers in the Red Sea
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump upped his rhetoric on Iran, threatening to bomb civilian infrastructure such as bridges and power plants in response to Iranian attacks
Mr Trump said in a post on Truth Social: “From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT”
Earlier this week, the Houthi rebels announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, targeting ships carrying Saudi exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Saudi Arabia has largely avoided the perils of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by pumping oil to ports in the Red Sea and shipping through the now blockaded Bab el-Mandeb Strait
But an alternative export route exists through the Suez Canal, which Commonwealth Bank has said “likely materially reduces the overall disruption to global oil markets”
The bank predicts the war will continue at its current pace for two months, and that depletion is unlikely to be on the cards, but that the Houthi blockade could change that
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 1:30pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 1:30pm
Markets pricing rates rise after strong jobs results
By Jasper Wells
This morning’s employment figures (which showed 76,300 jobs added to the economy) have markets gearing up for another rate rise
Cash rate futures for a hike next month have jumped from 23% at the start of the week to 32% this afternoon
Markets are pricing a 97% chance of the RBA raising the cash rate by December, compared to just 80% on Monday
Adding to the pressure is the escalating war in the Middle East, which is once again straining global supply and driving fuel prices higher
The government’s fuel excise expired at the start of the month, and fuel prices are creeping up, with unleaded rising by 25 cents
The RBA board will meet to set interest rates in less than three weeks
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 1:26pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 1:26pm
Average jobs growth over six months ‘solid pace’
By Emily Stewart
AMP’s deputy chief economist Diana Mousina says the change in jobs growth has been more volatile than normal lately
“So if we average out monthly jobs growth it’s running around 27K over 3 months and similar over a 6 month period, which is a solid pace
“This is more growth than is required to keep the unemployment rate steady,” she wrote in an analyst note
She says the labour market remains in good shape, although with variations across industries and states
Here’s a chart showing the unemployment rate vs the aggregate hours worked and employment growth
Ms Mousina notes if today’s participation rate was unchanged from last month, then the unemployment rate would have been closer to 4%
So what does all this mean for the Reserve Bank’s next interest rate decision?
“Today’s strong labour force data gives the RBA room to hike rates again, because there will be less concern that another interest rate increase will hurt the economy
“I think the RBA would view today’s jobs data as indicating that the labour market is still a bit ‘tight’ — which means that wages growth will remain higher than is consistent with the 2-3% inflation target.”
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 12:49pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 12:49pm
Is the labour market red hot? A look beneath the surface
By Emily Stewart
Betashares’ chief economist David Bassanese says at face-value, today’s “surprisingly strong” June employment gain suggests the labour market remains “red hot” and the Reserve Bank may need to lift interest rates further
However, he says a closer look shows the gains in employment are “supply driven”
“What’s impressive is the ability of the labour market to find jobs for the tens of thousands more Australians seeking one,” Mr Bassanese wrote in an analyst note
“Two measures highlight the lift in labour supply. The labour force participation rate (% of working-age Australians either employed or actively seeking work) has turned up in recent months after a gradual decline through 2025 — it reached 67.0% in June after touching a low of 66.6% in November 2025
“Consistent with rising participation, the employment-to-population rate also appears to be turning up after declines through 2025.”
However, he says more Australians are underemployed (or currently employed people who would like to work more hours)
“As at June, the underemployment rate reached 6.5%, up from a recent low of 5.7% in December 2025. Indeed, despite broadly solid employment growth so far this year (average monthly gains of 27k) the unemployment rate has lifted since late-2025, holding at 4.4% for the past two months.”
The rise in participation could be demand-led, with more Australians being “enticed into work by still widely available job opportunities”, or it could reflect “cost-of-living pressures forcing more Australians into the workforce,” he said
Mr Bassanese says today’s employment growth will keep the RBA “on edge” about possible wage pressures and firmer consumer spending
The central bank will be closely watching next week’s June quarter CPI
“An annual trimmed mean inflation result (using quarterly data) of more than the RBA’s May forecast of 3.8% will likely cement the case for a hike. The inflationary pressures are currently mixed, with easing petrol prices in recent months but likely further strength in new house prices and rents, particularly following tax changes in the May Federal Budget,” he said.
Key Event
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 12:48pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 12:48pm
📢 CALL-OUT: Looking for borrowers to discuss cost of living and interest rate hikes on TV
By David Chau
Hello there! Are you a home owner whose mortgage repayments have risen significantly — and would you be happy to speak with me about how recent interest rate hikes are affecting your everyday life?
I’m working on a TV story about this very topic! If you’re not camera-shy, and would love to have a chat with me (who wouldn’t?), please get in touch
You can email me at chau.david@abc.net.au. Talk soon! 🙂
Key Event
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 12:32pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 12:32pm
Chalmers says jobs figures show resilient economy
By Jasper Wells
Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the strong jobs numbers released this morning reflect the “resilience” of the Australian economy amid global uncertainty
“More than 76,000 jobs were created in June, more than 1.3 million jobs have been created on our watch”, Mr Chalmers said
The strong performance was largely driven by part-time employment, with a 47,700 rise in part-time people working
The news pushed the Aussie dollar back over 70 US cents
Mr Chalmers said the government has “overseen the lowest average unemployment of any Australian government in the last half a century”
“We recognise people are under pressure and we’ll continue to do what we can to ease that pressure with more cost-of-living relief, higher wages, more tax cuts and by helping people into jobs”, Mr Chalmers said
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 12:25pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 12:25pm
Westpac chief economist warns tech companies have lost ‘commercial discipline’
By Jasper Wells
Westpac’s chief economist, Luci Ellis, has cautioned that the staggering amounts of money flowing into the AI boom shows that “financial consideration” has taken a backseat
While she didn’t explicitly call the AI gold rush a bubble, Ms Ellis warned of an “Icarus-like mad flap that takes us too close to the sun” in a blog post on the bank’s website
She called the current situation the “perfect environment” for a price cycle in the tech sector
“Humans have managed to transcend Greek mythology and master the art of flying without melting”, Ms Ellis said
Trillions of dollars are being invested into data centres, with $US750 billion in capital expenditure by just the 14 largest data centre operators this year alone
Data centres are a type of property, which Ms Ellis points out is an asset class prone to boom-bust cycles, and are using significant leverage for their construction
Ms Ellis said that lots of companies have lost their normal financial discipline in the boom, and that a potential downswing depends on how their AI-thusiasm is financed
“Whether any downswing becomes a meltdown depends largely on debt: how much has been borrowed, who borrowed it and whether losses would ripple through the broader financial system”, Ms Ellis said
Ms Ellis compared the boom to the dot-com boom, which was built on something “genuinely valuable” (telco infrastructure), but that investors would still end up paying vastly too much
$AU150 billion is lined up to be invested in Australian AI infrastructure
ABC’s Ian Verrender asked whether any of this money will actually stay in Australian pockets; you can read his article here
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 12:05pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 12:05pm
Australia’s labour market remains ‘robust’
By Emily Stewart
KPMG Australia senior economist Terry Rawnsley says the increase in the participation rate in June was the largest monthly increase since April 2025
“June delivered another 76,300 jobs and participation surged to 67.0%. That lift was partly due to a high number of people who were waiting to start a job in May, or the fact that some businesses may have delayed start dates amid uncertainty stemming from developments in the Middle East earlier in the year,” he said
“The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.4% and the participation rate rose from 66.7% to 67.0%, marking the largest monthly increase since April 2025. People aged 55–64 recorded the strongest annual growth in participation, with the rate increasing by 0.8 percentage points to 70.6%
“The message from this data is clear: demand for labour in Australia remains robust.”
Key Event
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 12:01pm
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 12:01pm
More people employed, but largely driven by part-time jobs
By Emily Stewart
The Australian Bureau of Statistics jobs data has shown an extra 76,000 people gained employment last month
However, that was driven by a 47,000-person rise in part-time employment
That saw the underemployment rate tick up
You read more on this developing story here:
Key Event
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 11:36am
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 11:36am
Strong jobs data drives Aussie dollar back above 70 US cents
By Adelaide Miller
The latest jobs figures are unambiguously strong
Not only is unemployment steady, more than 76,000 additional Australians were employed last month
The only reason unemployment didn’t fall was that the participation rate jumped from 66.7 to 67%
The participation rate is the proportion of Australians aged 15 and over who are either in work or actively looking for work
The jobs data was strong enough to drive the Aussie dollar back above 70 US cents after it was released
Key Event
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 11:32am
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 11:32am
Unemployment rate remains steady
By Adelaide Miller
Australia’s unemployment rate has remained steady at 4.4%
Business reporter Gareth Hutchenswill provide more on this shortly
Key Event
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 11:05am
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 11:05am
Cutting minimum lot sizes boosts housing supply: New e61 research
By Adelaide Miller
Zoning reform that cut the minimum housing lot sizes significantly boosts new housing supply, benefiting lower-income rentersacross the city of Adelaide
That’s according to new e61 Institute research
Analysis of a 2014 zoning reform in the City of Campbelltown, Adelaide has found that cutting the minimum lot size from 350 sqm to 150 sqm increased housing approvalsby67%and the housing stockby 6% over seven years.
Before the reform was introduced, Campbelltown approved around 340 new dwellings a year.
In 2018, they rose to a peak of roughly 820,before falling back to about 380 a year by 2023,after the reform was reversed
The increase in approvals wastownhousesand rowhouses, which jumped from under 80approvals a year to more than 460 at the peak
“The reduction in minimum lot size triggered a large increase in subdivision activity, driven entirely by townhouses and rowhouses, giving us clear evidence that lot size is a binding constraint on housing supply,” says e61 Senior Research Economist Matthew Maltman
The research also found that building more homes helped people on lower incomes find places to live.
“Each household that moved into a new townhouse or apartment vacated an existing dwelling, which another household then took up, setting off a chain of moves that reached further down the income scale with each link,” says e61 Research Economist Theo Gibbons
“By the third link in that chain, households had average incomes 19.5%, and paid rents 12.4% lower, than the households who’d moved into the new housing itself. This shows how new housing has flow-on benefits, helping more people than just those who move into the new supply.”
However, local concerns about congestion and other costs from densification led to the minimum lot size reform being reversed, seeing building approvals revert back to their previous trend
Key Event
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 10:49am
Thu 23 Jul 2026 at 10:49am
Climate risk sharpening how the farmland market weighs long-term value
By Adelaide Miller
Trust by vendors in Australian farmland remains strong heading into the second half of 2026, despiteclimate variability impacting profits, according toVanessa Rader, Head of Research at Ray White Group
Average annual farm profitfell by 23% between 2001 and 2020
In contrast, farmland values have continued to climb even as transaction volumes ease, which Ms Rader says is prompting a more deliberate conversation among buyers, owners and financiers about how climate exposure factors into land value
Global warming, floods, droughts and bushfires have impacted virtually every corner of the country, although some areas are hit harder than others
A growing number of regions are becoming harder to insure as premiums rise in response to extreme heat and bushfire risk
Buyers are increasingly factoring this in when assessing a property’s long-term holding cost
When looking at the farmland market, the national median value reached $10,832.71 per hectare in the 12 months to March 2026, up 2.9% on the $10,529.39 per hectare recorded in the year to March 2025
That’s despite sale volumes easing to 6,893 transactions,down 4% on the year prior
Ms Rader says properties with reliable water access, diversified production systems and demonstrated resilience to seasonal extremes continue to draw the strongest competition,while more marginal or single enterprise holdings in higher risk zones face a more cautious pool of purchasers
“For vendors, this means water infrastructure, ground cover management and evidence of adaptive practice are becoming a more central part of the sales conversation than they were even a few years ago,” Ms Rader says
