And then there were four
The World Cup is at the semi-final stage: 44 teams have gone home, and a quartet remain standing
England battled through their quarter-final, Jude Bellingham dragging them past Norway with his two goals. Thomas Tuchel wasn’t impressed with the performance, but they keep finding ways to win: despite how they played, can they find a way to win two more?
They’ll play Argentina for the right to face/get convincingly beaten by either Spain or France in the final, but what effect have the latest results had on our rankings?
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1. France
FIFA ranking: 1
➡️
Six matches, six wins, 16 goals scored, only two conceded… who can prevent the French winning this World Cup?
If Kylian Mbappe (eight goals) doesn’t get you, then Ousmane Dembele (five goals) will instead. As it transpired, both of them got Morocco who, despite being the best African nation at the tournament, offered little resistance to Didier Deschamps’ team
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France remain clear favourites to win this World Cup, not just because of their ridiculously talented attack (Michael Olise tops the tournament’s assists chart with five) but also their strong defence. They haven’t conceded a goal in their three knockout-stage matches and, to be honest, have barely allowed a chance either
They deservedly remain top of our rankings — although The Athletic’s live projection tool actually suggests Spain have a very slightly better chance of winning the whole thing
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2. Spain
FIFA ranking: 3
➡️
Another win and another late Mikel Merino winner as Spain’s unlikely hero sent them into the semi-finals with a dramatic victory over Belgium
Once more, Spain limited their opposition to relatively few chances (Belgium created just 0.37 expected goals, or xG), although they did finally concede their first goal of the tournament in their 2-1 victory
It’s difficult to fully appreciate how good Spain are. Lamine Yamal was dangerous against Belgium and showed signs of his top form, but with only one goal and no assists in the tournament so far he’s lagging well behind his fellow superstars with the mark he is making on the World Cup
However, be itce, Spain keep finding a way. Their semi-final against France is an utterly tantalising prospect; a classic clash of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object
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3. Argentina
FIFA ranking: 2
➡️
Defending the World Cup is hard work, and perhaps Argentina are discovering why nobody has done it since 1962
In their knockout games thus far, they required extra time to beat Cape Verde, were 2-0 down to Egypt with 11 minutes remaining and squeaked past 10-man Switzerland, again in extra time
And yet, here they are. The semi-final will be a game between two teams who haven’t been especially impressive in their general play, but perhaps Lionel Scaloni will be encouraged by the fact his team didn’t have to rely on Lionel Messi this time
They’re the only semi-finalists to have faced two lots of extra time, which could ultimately count against them, but the presence of their No 10 and their ability to pull things out of the bag means they will be favourites to reach the final
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Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly reported which team had the worst goal differential in the tournament. It was Iraq, not Tunisia. The article has been corrected.
