Editor’s note: The news that the Milwaukee Bucks had agreed to pay Gary Trent Jr. $64 million over four years broke during Las Vegas Summer League.We asked our NBA experts for their reaction to the signing:
John Hollinger: Sitting in a row of media folks watching a summer league game as the news broke, it was amusing to see a conga line of people look at their phones, blurt “WHAT?!?!?” and then begin cackling
Gary Trent Jr. played his way out of the rotation on a bad team last season; suffice to say, it seemed unlikely he would generate a bidding war for much above the minimum salary. Yet Trent becomes one of the few players this offseason to get four fully guaranteed seasons in a market where most role players have been squeezed on both years and dollars
My BORD$ formula rated Trent as a minimum player, and that doesn’t seem like shocking information given that he was an unrestricted free agent each of the last two summers and signed for the minimum both times. His new contract, however, pays him the maximum amount for a player with early Bird rights. Again, who were the Bucks bidding against here? Jim Buss?
I expect most league analytics and cap departments to rate Trent’s deal among the league’s most negative value propositions. He would have to seriously outrun expectations just for Milwaukee to break even
Mike Vorkunov: The contract is definitely … curious. It’s hard to explain in rational terms. Trent has been a declining player for several seasons. He signed a minimum contract with the Bucks and then posted his worst NBA season since he was on his rookie contract. He started just 21 games for a 32-win team. He averaged 8.1 points per game and his worst 3-point shooting numbers since he was a rookie. Go check out his career arc by DPM. It’s all not great
Now, also consider that this has been an offseason where guaranteed money has been hard to come by, even for productive veterans. The NBPA executive director lamented that fact Friday. So, how does Trent go from a minimum bench player to getting the 10th-largest contract handed out in free agency this summer? All guaranteed, by the way. Well, it’s all a bit curious
Sam Vecenie: For two months now, I’ve gotten asked by league if I’d heard that the Bucks were going to give Gary Trent Jr. something in the ballpark of the full-midlevel exception for four years, and my response was typically something along the lines of, “There’s no way they can do that coming off of the season he had, right?” This deal, as Sam Amick and Eric Nehm reported, has been anticipated
The NBA should pretty clearly look into this contract in regard to salary-cap circumvention. I cannot remember a player agreeing to sign for the minimum one year, having his worst season in seven years where he was a below-average player by any standard, and then receiving five times as much money in free agency the following year — let alone four guaranteed years in a marketplace where starting-quality players on good teams, which Trent proved that he was not this past season, had an exceptionally difficult time getting multiple guaranteed years. Regarding what Vorkunov said above, that feels at the very least some real circumstantial evidence that this deal cannot be rationally explained.
But then again, the worst punishment the Bucks can receive here might be paying Gary Trent Jr. $64 million for the next four years, given that he’s seen downticks in scoring average in each of the last five years and overall offensive efficiency in four of the last five outside of a spike season in 2024-25, his lone season since 2020 where he’s had a true-shooting percentage above league-average as a player who derives most of his value as a shooter and scorer
Hollinger: Sam makes a good point here: voiding the contract would be strongly in the Bucks’ interests. Penalizing the Bucks draft picks or fining them, on the other hand, would be possible remedies even if the league let the contract stand
David Aldridge: I would love to contribute to the dialogue on what can only be described as “What did they just do?” but my guy, the American University demon Matt Rogers, is doing work for the Sixers’ summer squad!
Hollinger: League
