Box Office: ‘Moana’ Disappoints With $40M

FRIDAY PM: In regards to how far Disney’s live-action take on Moanawill go this weekend, this answer is not far, with afternoon estimates showing a previews/first Friday around $17M at 3,875 theaters for a 3-day between $40M-$45M — well below the $60M+ that was hoped for on the horizon. That puts the island princess at unfortunately the same level as Disney disaster Snow White, a film with a whole other set of baggage, saddled by star Rachel Ziegler’s public remarks and political leanings, which led to a first day/previews of $16.2M and an awful $42.2M opening.

At $40M-$45M stateside in regards to its $250M production cost before hundred million more or so in P&A, not even a worship to Maui himself will save this film, unless families decide to take the time to do so on Saturday. But no rival studio is seeing anything even near a $50M 3-day

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Second goes to Illumination/Universal’s second weekend of Minions & Monsterswith a solid hold of -46% or $20M at 4,244 theaters off a second Friday $6.3Mand running total by Sunday of $107.8M

Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 5at 3,575 theaters is looking at a fourth Friday of $5.4M and 3-day of $18M, -40% for which will make Buzz, Woody and Jessie fly past $400Mby Sunday

Fourth belongs to New Line’s Evil Dead Burns at 3,004 with a $6M+ Friday including previews and a 3-day of $15M

The second Friday of Angel Studio’s Young Washingtonis around $2M with a second weekend of $6.3M, -67% for a running cume by Sunday of $32.9M

Sixth goes to the wide expansion of A24/Annapurna’s The Invitewith $2.2Mtoday and third weekend of $5.1M, +635% and a running total of $6.4M by EOD Sunday

FRIDAY AM:Disney’s live-action Moanamade $4.5 million in previews from Thursday showtimes that began 2 p.m

No audience score yet, but critics have walloped this live-action version directed by Thomas Kail with Maui’s hook at 35% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s lower than the live-action version of Snow White(39%) starring Rachel Zegler, Will Smith’s Aladdin(57%) and Dumbo(46%)

Previews here for Moanaare higher than Snow White($3.5M, $42.2M opening) and Dumbo($2.6M, $45.99M opening), but lower than Little Mermaid($10.3M previews, $95.5M 3-day opening) and Aladdin($7M previews, $91.5M 3-day opening). They’re also well below the Tuesday previews before Thanksgiving of Moana 2($13.8M, $139.7M 3-day)

Here’s the thing: Earlier this week we heard that Moanawas hoping for a low-$60M start, but exhibitors pushed that down to a high-$40Ms projection. Presales heading into the weekend were at $4M. Yikes. Success with the latest Dwayne Johnson movie relies on walk-up business Saturday, and the fear is that the family space is crowded with the mega success of Toy Story 5and the recent lackluster release of Minions & Monsters,not to mention it’s too much Moana,too soon, this version arriving less than two years from the box office tsunami that was the animated Moana 2.

RELATED: ‘Moana’ Live Action Cast Vs. Animated Characters: Who Plays Who?

We have confirmed that the live-action Moanacost $250M before global P&A, which is higher than the $200M price tag of Johnson/Seven Bucks’ Amazon MGM Studios’ production Red One and even the Rock’s Red Notice

If Moanacomes in well under its $60M+ domestic forecast, the hope is that midweek business makes up for the shortfall as the feature will remain the only fresh family title during the onslaught of Universal’s The Odysseyand Sony/Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: Brand New Day, and before Paramount lets PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie off its collar August 14

Separately, New Line’s Sam Raimi-produced Evil Dead Burn did $2.3M in previews, which is $200,000 shy of previous installment Evil Dead Rise‘s $2.5M. That number translated into a $23.5M opening for the 2023 movie from Lee Cronin, which was 85% certified fresh with critics. Evil Dead Burnfrom Sébastien Vanicek stands at 72% certified fresh with critics. No audience score yet

Minions & Monsters counts a nine-day total of $87.7M after launching on Wednesday, July 1, that total running 47% behind Despicable Me 4(another Wednesday opener) over the same period. The latter Illumination/Universal title ended its run at $361M stateside

The rest of the week is as follows at the B.O.:

2. Toy Story 5(Dis) 3,965 theaters, Wk $49.8M (-54%), Total $385.2M/Wk 3

3. Young Washington(ANG) 2,725 theaters, Wk $26.6M/Wk 1

4. Supergirl(WB) 3,602 theaters, Wk $13.5M (-72%), Total $62.M/Wk 2

5. Obsession(Foc) 2,650 theaters, Wk $9.4M (-41%), Total $249.5M/Wk 8

RELATED: ‘Moana 2’ Review: Disney Sequel Navigates Higher-Stakes Plot And Oceans Of Expectations To Make A Satisfying Splash

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